First Flight is just far too consistent over this trip and conditions to be a 40/1 shot here. He is cast iron to be involved in the finish and looks about a 3/1 shot to be placed at best. Mosse is one of the best jockeys around and was 2nd on his earlier on this year. He will give us a run for our money. I think given his profile the extra place is worth a drop in win price.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Hills 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/lads and others
Agent Murphy is taking a step up in trip which is what he needs judging by his form a few years ago. If he gets held up here and can improve again here as he has been doing in his runs this year he can get involved. There is a slight risk that he may be getting ready for a big run in the main race is a few weeks’ time but at 25/1 he is worth the risk as the class horse of the race of a workable mark.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
Muthmir is a Group 1 performer and when I look at this race he just wins most of the time. There will be a mad pace with multiple front runners and that should set it up perfectly for him here. Apart from his last run he has been on top form this year and is really about a 3/1 shot here so 6/1 is great value.
I’m just going to have a small just in case bet on Just Glamorous at a huge price. He has not been staying in his races this year and should be getting fitter with each race. One of these days he will stay out there and cause a shock. 80/1 is worth the risk
2 Points win 6/1 Muthmir Generally
½ Point win 80/1 Just Glamorous Generally
There is nothing between My Dream Boat and the fav Desert Encounter on form and my guess is todays trip will be right up My Dream Boats’ alley. Even on this year’s form he is one of the most likely winners here and he has some top class form on good ground. He should be certainly 3rd fav here and 12/1 is way too big he will go of around 7/1. If he settles at all he can pick of most of these.
2 Points win 12/1 365/hill/lads/coral