Melbourne Cup 4:00 am

I couldn’t have a more confident pick here. Hartnell looks a huge price at 28/1. He was a very good 3rd in this last year when well clear of the rest of the field. He is 3k better off with the winner for a 4 length beating and the runner up isn’t here. He has had a lower key season this year than last and today is surly the day for him to be at his peak. There are negatives for him, being top weight but he is always carrying this weight anyway. This year’s race is not as strong as last years as far as I can see. Of the Irish challengers I fancy Max Dynamite bit he is too short for this race. Wicklow brave will run a lot better than least here but the huge price with 6 places is gone so I’m not sure what value he is now.  The 6 places on offer is a big concession for a consistent horse and I actually make Hartnell near evens to be in the 6. That makes the 5/1 on offer just far too big to ignore. His win chance isn’t as much value id have him more of a 16/1 or 18/1 shot but that is still plenty of margin. Time for an actual bet with the 25/1 and 6 places with paddy/betfair/sky

3 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/betfair/sky