I’m surprised at the price of Rons Dream here. Although she is top weight she has a good 5lbs claimer on here and isn’t giving a lot of weight to a few less proven horses. I think she has performed as well as could be expected so far this year and this trip and ground might well be in her favour. She looks one of the more likely winners at 16/1 is a fair bit too big given she has dropped to a mark that it well within her grasp.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally
I had another look at the Paddy Power here a few weeks ago and what struck me there is Romain De Senam actually went the inside line for the last mile of that race after cruising up to get near the front. Every other race that day any horse that went the shortest way around died on their feet so that makes his performance to finish 5th there a lot better than it initially seemed. He is also getting a few pounds from those ahead of him. I think he is a solid 7/1 or 8/1 shot here so the 14/1 on offer is far too big.
I was looking all week at Guitar Pete but decided to hold fire and I’m paying for it now as the 20/1 is long gone and I’m not sure how much value he is at 11/1 is this race. I’ll have a saver just to dull the pain if he does win. He is well treated and I’ve always had a decent chase handicap in mind for him.
2 Points win 14/1 Romain De Senam
1 Point win 11/1 Guitar Pete
Sire De Grugy is far too big a price to ignore here in this race. He was very poor last time out but was pretty decent in his first run this year over hurdles. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this place woke him up a bit. He has been dropped 6lbs from that Ascot run and that mark could make it difficult for this field.
1 Point win 10/1 Generally