This looks a poor enough 2000, and I think the 2 main AOB hopes have to many negatives for the price. I do like Murrillo as a horse. He looked green last year but still has some very good form. The better ground here will certainly give him a better chance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could get involved here. We are of course betting on that he isn’t a pure pacemaker but were getting enough of a price to factor that in.
1 Point EW 50/1 4 places paddy/betfair/lads
This looks a very poor renewal and on form alone Mirza has as good a chance as any of these. He is 11 but was near top form last year. He has also performed well in most of his first time out races. 25/1 is too big in a race where most of them are about the same standard. We’ll have a bet w/o the fav here as well just in case he runs to his mark.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
1 Point win 16/1 w/o Havana grey 365/hills
I don’t think Defoe has really beaten anything of note and it looks entirely possible that Count Octave is a better horse. His run in a top-class Ledger last year where he didn’t really stay in the softer ground really looks good in the context of this race and I can’t have the difference in price.
2 Points win 13/2 Various
Doesn’t American just win here. He has a huge amount in hand and I don’t think he would be going here without being in form. His rider has a great strike rate for the trainer, and I just think he is far too classy for a race like this. I’m also pretty sure the good/soft will suite him.
2 Points win 5/1 generally
Battle of Marathon has been in fine form on the All Weather will have a bit in hand on a few of these fitness wise and is capable of a mark of 100 if everything goes right for him. 66/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 66/1 various