Cheltenham Day 1

Previously advised running tomorrow

Arkle

Hardline is one I had in mind for JLT but it appears this is his most likely race, and considering his form with Us and Them (who I also really rate here); he could well have some of the best 2 mile form ,when slamming him by 10 lengths. His run last time can be ignored as he was being minded on the ground and when the Jockey realized he had loads of horse left he made a huge amount of ground to be 3rd. 25/1 is looking massive on collateral form.

2 Points win 25/1 nrnb 365/sky

Mares Hurdle

We’re going to take advantage of this market before everything changes shortly. I think Benie Des Dieux is over-rated on last year’s win, given Apples Jade wasn’t in form and my 66/1 selection nearly beat her. She looks to me to need a softer surface and may well get outpaced on good ground. My feeling is Limini’s form the year before is much stronger and she has been running well this year. She wasn’t far behind Supasunday in the Hattons Grace and then ran well behind Percy last time out . She also has a number of good runs on the flat this year. If Laurina doesn’t go here I think she could well be in a 2 horses race, and the other one hasn’t seen the racecourse yet. Well play it safe and have a saver on Laurina just in case.

It’s not out of the question that Limini goes of Fav here at something like 7/4 (as its possible none of the ones above her in the betting are here at all) but she really can’t go off much bigger than 8/1 no matter who turns up.

2 Points win 8/1 365 NRNB Limini

½ Point win 4/1 Laurina hills/betfair Ante-post

Supreme
It’s not often I pick in these novice races at the festival but Itchy Feet’s form really does stand out for a 25/1 Shot. He just failed to give Elixir De Nuts 5lbs over this course and distance and was unbeaten prior to that. He has had a nice break and the trainer is certainly in form. That form is actually as good as anything in the race. He just can’t go off 25/1.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

 

NEW TIPS

4:10 Mares
As per Podcast Slowmotion interests me here at a huge price. Her hurdles form is actually very consistent and I thought she looked decent behind Laurina last time out. In the main there isn’t much between all the rest behind the front 2 for me and 66/1 is value. Is softer ground she will be staying on at the end.
1 Point EW 66/1 ¼ 365 1/5th Generally

4:40 Close Brothers

Movewiththetimes has been on my mind for this since I saw the entries and he has only got bigger in price . He fell in 3rd at the last in the Paddy Power, and his best run ever was a second in the betfair hurdle on soft ground. Obviously, he will need to improve his jumping but he is in no better place to do just that. 16/1 is bigger than I expected.

2 Points win 16/1 lads/betfair/888

1:30 Supreme

I have to add another bet here. Aramon is just too big a price here. He has Grade 1 form in Ireland that could well be the best on office and there is far to much in price between him and Klassical Dream and Vision DHonour.  

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

2:50 Ultima

Catamaran De Seuil has taken me all morning to find in this. I’ve managed to rule out most of the field in what looks a below average renewal. He likes soft ground looks like a stayer and has a fair bit of pace as well judging by a good win earlier this year that has worked out. He has a decent 5lbs claimer on and the trainer just doesn’t send no hopers. 80/1 has to be a bit of value.

1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ 5 places 365 .

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