Ryanair Chase 2:50

Cue Card will have more or less his ideal conditions here and I think Un Des Seaux will struggle to stay on this ground. 6/1 is what looks a 2 horse race to me is massive value. If he can run to the same standard as his last race he wins.

3 Points win 6/1 365 /10bet 11/2 elsewhere

4:10

Traffic Fuide has been on my mind for this for ages and even though id prefer better ground, I think he has fair bit in hand from his mark. He caught my eye last time out in the Cue Card race which was the best chase this year . 28/1 is great value

2 Points EW 28/1 5 places Lads/hills/coral/boyles

I’m also going to go with Splash of Ginge who won for us at a huge price in basically the same race earlier this year on the same ground and is only 3lbs higher with bottom weight.

1 Points ew 33/1 5 places 365/paddy/lads and others                                                                                                    

3:10

The New One has great form on soft ground and I think he will not know he has been in a race until near the end as they will be going slow enough here. He stays superbly in this ground and just isn’t 16/1 shot.

2 Points win 16/1 Generally

5:30

The Young Master has been on my mind for months for this and he is on a great mark . Although soft ground probably isn’t ideal he will go on it and it should slow the race down which will help him. I think he will stay on past most of these at the end, He caught the eye behind Fountains Windfall at Ascot jumping left all the time and if he can reproduce that run of this mark going lefthanded  he will be right in the firing line at the finish.

2 Points win 16/1 Generally

2:10

Whataknight on the face of it runs better on good ground, but he has one piece of form on soft that impresses me when I watch the replay. He was a hardworking 2^nd at Doncaster after fighting of a number of other horses. That was off 6 lbs higher and of this mark and after a break I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well here at a huge price.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places ¼ place 365/lads/coral

5:30

Tycoon Prince was very good last time really given the race and I think he may be better than the fav Any Second Now . He went after the 2 leaders early and paid for it late. He should be suited by this trip has form on soft and 16/1 is definitely a big price.

2 Points win 16/1 Generally

I’ll also go with a small bet of Ibis De Rhue . He strikes me as a horse with plenty of upside having been very lightly raced and being a past festival winner. 25/1 looks worth the risk

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

2:50

Beware the Bear looks almost the only horse sure to stay the trip in this ground. He will have to jump better than he has in the past but the form of his win first time out this year is very good and he won that with a fair bit in hand. I’ve more or less ruled out everything else because of too high marks ground etc.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Sandown2:25

Man of Plenty shouldn’t mind the ground here judging by many of his runs this year. He has been a staple in a lot of the big handicaps this year and has been running well in most. He hasn’t had the run of the race a few times going far too wide, and I think there is a chance he has one of these in his.2 Miles Heavy Ground might just be about right and 5 places and 33/1 looks great value.

2 Points EW 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/boyles/tote/fred

JLT Thursday

I’m a fan of Rathvinden and although they look to be going to the 4 Miler, he would really have a huge chance in this race. I think he is a strong middle distance horse and with superb course form, hopefully sense will prevail. We’ve all seen it before with Patrick saying he love to ride him in the 4 miles but Willie changes his mind last minute. Just for the 20% change we will be sitting on a 40/1 bet on Thursday that price is madness. This is a poor JLT and if he runs he is an 8/1 shot. We have to take the value lying around the street here.

2 Points EW 40/1 365/VC NRNB

Mares Hurdle Tuesday

I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is to 40/1 shot without Apples Jade.  She is the actually the 2^nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6^th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.

2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

Gold Cup

The first bet I had for this year was Djakadam. No need for much explanation here. He isn’t a 33/1 shot. He travelled well last year until a mistake 2 out and still finished only a couple of lengths down. I’m sure he do much the same this year and hopefully will jump better at the critical stage. His form this year may not look that great but in reality it isn’t much different than other years when he came here and performed. The generally 25/1 is still value, and everything in the field has questions to answer.

1 Point EW 33/1 hills/Sporting

3:35 Kempton

Although Vibrato Valtat is probably an infuriating horse, this trip and ground should suit him going on his run at Doncaster earlier this year. He is still well handicapped on his form from last year. I can forgive him his last run on heavy ground and expect an improvement today. 40/1 and the outsider of the field here seems a fair bit of value especially given 4 places and his overall record.

2 Points EW 40/1 4 places lads/coral/fred/boyles

4:10 Ffos las

Last Chance Saloon. Firebird Flyer at Ffos Las. Good Course Record , needs to improve from his last run but 33/1 and 4 places looks worth it.,

1 Point EW 33/1 4 places lads/coral/paddy/betfair

Haydock 3:15

Silsol really strikes me as being underestimated here tomorrow. He goes in the ground is certain to stay and is on a very good mark comparative to his hurdles mark.  He was a good 5^th in the Welsh National carrying more weight and got caught wide before the straight which cost him ground. I think Blacklion will struggle to give him over a stone. 12/1 is great value, as to me he looks a 6/1 shot

2 Points win 12/1 365/lads 11/1 generally

Ascot 3:00
Solstice Star is a horse I’ve been expecting to return to form at some stage. I think this race and ground will suit him and although there are a few unexposed ones here in think he is a big price at 28/1. He will be carrying a very light weight with the 7lbs claimer on and that should make him hard to kick out of the places.
1 Point EW 28/1 paddy/betfair/vc

Gowran 3:10
Although this looks a good race, I’m finding it hard to fancy anything. Identity Thief ran well for a lot of the Irish Champion Hurdle and got tired after a long break. I wonder will he consent to put in all in here. The couple of falls he took chasing seem to have affected him but I’m pretty sure he will come back to life at some stage and this might be the perfect opportunity. He seems more of an 8/1 shot that 12’s
2 Points win 12/1 Generally

Gowran 3:10

With Mick Jazz gone, I think the 8/1 about Identity Thief is one of the best of the year so far. So well be going in again for another 2 pt bet. I just can’t see Forge Meadow having any chance. The w/o fav bet here at 3/1 is as nice a saver as you could see and looks odd-on to me

2 pts win 8/1 generally

2 pts 3/1 w/o fav 365/sky/fred/tote

Haydock 3:35

This looks a bad EW race with everything having a chance. Im going with 3 tiny in bets on big priced outsiders just in case.

Moon Racer’s form is very good for this race and he looks a big price to return to form after a break. I like Project Bluebook and as such have to like Nietzsche of a workable mark both being possible improvers with this race in mind.

1/2 Point win Moon Racer 40/1 365/hills and others

1/2 Point win Neitzche 50/1 365 wills and others

1/2 Point win Project Bluebook 66/1 Generally

Leopardstown 2:25

Going for one from left field here, Rathpatrick ticks a few boxes here as a horse with some very good form in the past that might just be ready to run a big race in more favourable conditions that he has been getting. He looked the best horse in the race in the Pertempts at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when he went far to wide all the way and finished 6^th.  I think he will appreciate this ground and trip and has won on this mark before. 50/1 is easily worth the risk.

1 Point EW 50/1 365/paddy/betfair/vc

Leopardstown 3:00

I said a few weeks ago I dint think there was anything between Monalee and Rathvinden and I’ll be sticking by that here. 16/1 is just far too big and Rathvinden is the most experiences horse here and I think he can run a huge race and maybe get back to Cheltenham with a decent chance. He looks about twice the price he should be.

2 Points win 16/1 generally

Leopardstown 4:10

Apache Stronghold was one of the first horses on my Cheltenham list this year. He caught my eye in the paddy power when we were on at a big price, when having to make up far too much ground before the straight to have anything left in the tank for the finish. He will be suited by this ground and trip and is down another 3lbs here. 40/1 with 6 places in paddy is madness and worthy of a decent bet.

2 Points EW 40/1 6 places Paddy Power 40/1 5 places elsewhere.

Leopardstown 3:35

Djakadam has only been beaten by Sizing John lately until his poor run around here last time. With that rival missing here I fancy him to go very close at what looks a good price of 8/1.  He looks a couple of points too big here.

1 Point win 8/1 paddy/betfair and others

Leopardstown 12:40

She’s a Star seems a bit overlooked here. She was excellent in 2 big 2 mile handicap hurdles towards the end of last year, particularly the Bar 1 Grade A at Fairyhouse , where she finished as well as anything after a lot of coaxing. This Mares handicap looks a fair way short of that type of race and although she had a couple of poorer runs over hurdles (possibly went to the well too many times quickly) , after that she was back to winning ways at Dundalk on the flat 3 weeks ago.  In this field her toughness will surely bag a place at least if she is one her game at all and it seems that the extra 2 furlong’s might be the right trip for her.. 28/1 seems big for a 16/1 shot.

2 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/betfair

Leopardstown 2:25

Going for one from left field here, Rathpatrick ticks a few boxes here as a horse with some very good form in the past that might just be ready to run a big race in more favourable conditions that he has been getting. He looked the best horse in the race in the Pertempts at Cheltenham a couple of years ago when he went far to wide all the way and finished 6^th.  I think he will appreciate this ground and trip and has won on this mark before. 50/1 is easily worth the risk.

1 Point EW 50/1 365/paddy/betfair/vc

Leopardstown 3:00

I said a few weeks ago I dint think there was anything between Monalee and Rathvinden and I’ll be sticking by that here. 16/1 is just far too big and Rathvinden is the most experiences horse here and I think he can run a huge race and maybe get back to Cheltenham with a decent chance. He looks about twice the price he should be.

2 Points win 16/1 generally