Leopardstown 3:30

I think this market is all wrong. Obviously Faugheen wins in a canter if he is fit but none of the other are anywhere near. I actually think that on form this year Jezki is a short price to chase him home.  On a line through Coquin Mans there is nothing between Jezki and Melon at all. Ok Melon has more chance to improve but on better ground here I think Jezki is a huge price at 33/1. Hopefully there is still 8 in the field when it kicks of tomorrow. I do have a small worry in my mind that he could be going for the County, but being placed here wouldn’t really affect his mark anyway. I can’t resist a tiny just in case bet on Identity Thief. He was a near top class hurdler that didn’t take to chasing last year. He also has a perfect record fresh of 111. 80/1 is worth a bet

2.5 Points EW Jezki 33/1 Paddy/Betfair/victor 25/1 generally

1 Point EW Identity Thief 80/1 Paddy/Betfair

Jezki w/o Faugheen

Just in case Faugheen is at his imperious best I’m going to top up my Jezki bet with a point w/o fav at up to 18/1 on bet 365

1 Point w/o Fav 18/1 365 16/1 generally

Leopardstown 4:05

De Name Escapes Me on the face of it looks up against it here. He has been chasing this year without setting the world on fire. I do think he may be suited to this race and he is the choise here or Mark Walsh. This is a gut feeling selection so well take a bit of EW 6 places in paddy and sky

1 Point EW 6 place 33/1paddy/sky 33/1 generally

2:55

Ted Veale is a very decent jumper of a fence judging by his last good chase run, and has since got to his highest rating ever on the flat. He has 2 poor runs over hurdles in December but I wonder will be take part here today of a workable mark. He has plenty of top class runs in big handicaps and maybe today will be no different. 33/1 is well worth the risk. I’m also going with Three Stars who has been a touch disappointing since a good novice campaign. This trip will suit him and I expect a bit of improvement today again 33/1 is value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Ted Veale 5 places paddy/Betfair

1 Point EW Three Stars 33/1 5 places Betfair/Paddy

Sandown 3:00

Cant see anything winning this but I like nothing more than picking out a horse with a load of zeros in the form. Doesyourdogbite hasn’t been good this year but of a nice mark with a step up in trip he is bound to come good at some stage. I think its worth a min bet at a huge price .

½ Point win 40/1 generally

Sandown 3:35

This race should suit Bishops Road, and although he was poor enough in the Welsh National I think he will be a lot better here. 11/1 looks value

1 Point win 11/1 generally

Hereford 15:40

Firebird Flyer was just getting involved for us last time out in the Welsh National and ran reasonably well the time before. He shouldn’t be far away here if he is on a going day. 40/1 is very big in this race.

2 Points EW 40/1 sky/betfair/paddy/stan/vc

3:35 Cheltenham

I keep looking at this race coming to the same horse. Ex Patriot really has the look of a strong stayer, has some fairly eye-popping form already this year over shorter and will act on the ground. I think he will probably improve for the step up in trip. Even forgetting all that on actual ratings now he has very little to find with most of these. We also have to throw on a very good run last year in the Triumph Hurdle. 33/1 looks a fair few points too big. I normally wouldn’t go EW in this type of race but he is very consistent and will handle course and ground. He’s a 20/1 shot at most here.

2 Points EW 33/1 ¼ place 365 1/5^th betfair/sun/paddy/boyles

Cheltenham 1:50

Potters Legend strikes me as well handicapped here. He ran superbly in the Hennessy but didn’t look to stay. Getting dropped 5lbs for that run is a big bonus. He is a big price here because he pulled up next time out on stupid ground at Newbury over too long a trip again. I think if he can bowl along in front here with a light weight he might be much harder to catch. His course form is very good as well. 20/1 is big and I’d be happy with 16/1 or over.

1 Point win 20/1 sky/coral/vc/betfair exch

Cheltenham 4:10

The stepping up in trip experiment didn’t work for Dino Velvet. This is a much weaker race than the last couple he has competed in and of a lowly mark of 121 he surly has a great chance here. He has some solid course form and should be involved here. 14/1 is value

1 Point win 14/1 365/hills/vc

3:00 Gowran

I’m afraid I can’t resist the 5 place special with Paddy Power for this race. Thunder and Roses is the ideal horse to exploit this offer. He is on nice mark here is proven over the trip and ground and ran a reasonable race in this last year, in what looked a stronger race. Carrying 10:04 in this after a relatively light season so far should really put him in the mix here and a repeat of his very decent performance in the Paddy Power Chase should be enough.

1 Point EW 5 places Paddy 28/1

I’m also going with a win bet just in case on Wounded Warrior. I had a fair amount of confidence in him last year and he ran a decent race. He is down a huge amount in the weight after a poor run of form, but has ever so slightly improved in his last couple of races. 33/1 is worth a dart carrying only 9:06 around here.

1 Point win 33/1 Generally  Wounded Warrior.

Haydock 3:15

Fine Rightly is a horse with a bit of class that will go on this ground.  I think a mark of 143 is well within his compass and although he will need to improve on some of his recent runs, he hasn’t been without promise this year. We’ll certainly get a good run for our money, as he will definitely trade a lot shorter in running, given that he is a very strong traveller. 25/1 looks value

1 Point EW 25/1 4 Places 1/5^th Paddy 25/1 3 places ¼ elsewhere

Ascot 3:00

Minella Daddy is the one of most interest to me here. He has been of the track for a long time but has some really top class course form and in particularly was 2^nd in a much stronger Handicap here of 3lbs higher. He was a horse with a huge amount of promise and if he is ready to run today he is going to be right in the firing line. 16/1 is value.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally 18/1 hills

Kempton 2:40

Dino Velvet certainly has a few pounds in hand here. Weather it is enough to win a competitive race like this is questionable but I think he is the type of improver that can spring a surprise here. He caught the eye last time out when possibly coming down the wrong side when looking like he could get involved in a similar race to this. What really sticks out for me is his performance in the Fred Winter at the festival last march. He got really badly balked and still finished his race well from miles too far back of a 2 lbs higher mark than today. 28/1 seems very good value

1.5 Points EW 28/1 265/Hills ¼ Place 25/1 Generally

2:10 Punchestown

Every Horse has its price and I think there may be a bit of value in the outsider of the field here .Makitorix pulled too hard last time out and then had a jarring jump 4 out that knocked the stuffing out of him. I think he travelled well in that Grade 1 and wouldn’t be surprised if he performed a lot better here. 100/1 is easily worth a shot.

1 Point EW 100/1 352/hils/boyles/betfair

3:15 Kempton

The Young Master will be much better suited to this test than his last run over the National Fences. The favourite here is probably a fair bit overrated on what he has done and given he also fell on his last 2 runs he has to be taken on. 8/1 is certainly too big for the Young Master.

2 Points win 8/1 365/lads/vc

3:35 Warwick

I’ve been looking at this race all week without really coming down on the side of anything. I’m now getting interested in Cogry here at a half decent price. He has a superb record around here and although he jumped poor enough in the Hennessey this race is far more his level. His win at Cheltenham was really good and any repeat of that form even with the extra few pounds would put him right in the firing line. We’ll have a small go at 11/1

1 Point win 11/1 Generally

2:05 Chepstow

I’ve had Firebird Flyer in mind for this for what seems a long time now. He is a horse that I’ve followed with success in the past and he will relish both the trip and ground here. He traveled really well into this race last year when the savage pace from the start probably cost him with the additional 11lbs that he had to carry as well. He has also been 2^nd in this before of a higher mark and won the Midlands National of 8lbs higher. I’m pretty sure that he needed to drop a good few pounds to get fully competitive here again and managed that last year with a number of poor performances. His seasonal opener over hurdles was eye catching when running on in 3^rd, behind 2 decent horses, consider all the P’s in his for before that. He just has to have been prepared for a tilt at today’s race and should get competitive. 40/1 with 5 places is certainly value here.

2 Points EW 40/1 5 places paddy/betfair 33/1 6 places sky.

Wincanton 2:40

its not often I will fancy 2 in a 6 horse race but I think the 2 outsiders here from V Williams yard can get very close in ideal conditions . The rest are either too high in the weights or won’t go on the ground .I think they will both shorten .

1 point win Uhlan Bute 10/1

1 point win Pressurise 12/1 

1:55 leop

Rathvinden in my eyes is equal at lest to the fav here and can’t be 6 times his price . He gave death duty a decent race and the 11/2 available is value . He is more experienced than Monalee as well

2 points win 11/2 generally

Leopardstown 3:00

Apache Stronghold really sticks out for me here at a huge price. He was a near top class novice and id be happy enough with his run last time out behind the fav here Polidam. He had been off for a long time and it was only his second run back. He also has a big turnaround in the weights and will be suited by the step up in trip. I was really surprised by his price of 50/1 with 6 places. I think the extra value of the 6 places also warrants a decent EW bet.

Ill also give Road to Riches one more chance of a decent mark with a  7lbs claimer on. The slightly better ground here will suit and I think he still has a decent performance in him as a 10 yo.

2 Points EW Apache Stronghold 50/1 6 places betfair/Paddy

1 Point EW Road to Riches 50/1 6 places betfair.paddy

King George

There is so much racing on today but to be honest none of it is the type of big weekend handicap that I normally have a good look at. I’ve been looking at the King George all week knowing who I was going to pick but trying to convince myself that there was other options. When I look at the actual form of the contenders, I’m not sure of the strengths of some of the favorites here.

I’m a big fan of Might Byte, but on the face of it he wasn’t that impressive on his seasonal reappearance and beat Whisper twice last year, but wasn’t that hugely impressive the second time and Aintree.. There is no guarantee yet that he is the second coming that his price here indicates.

Whisper looks improved this year and its possible he may be better than Might Byte of form now, but I think he would want to be winning that poor Hennessy to be a true grade 1 horse.

Similarly, Fox Norton would have to win that Tingle Creek to be of interest here even though it is over a much shorter trip, it was a very poor renewal.

Bristol De Mai is a Grade 1 horse now but its unlikely he will get his favored conditions here and this race is completely different than a heavy Betfair.

Tea for Three, Double Shuffle and Traffic Fluide shouldn’t be good enough although I wouldn’t be surprised if Traffic Fluide outran his odds here.

That leaves the only horse I’d be pricking anyway after all that waffle. Thistlecrack’s win last year actually reads a lot better than some give it credit as Cue Card and Tea for Three both won Grade 1s after. I had a good laugh at all the giving out about his reappearance as he would only have 1 real target and that is today.  He ran the type of race that I often look for in a horse that needed the run in that he travelled well and just blew up 2 out. He loves a fence and this is his perfect trip and course. His price keeps going out and the 8/1 available now is plenty big enough to take account of the risk that he may never be the same horse as he was.

2 Points win 8/1 365/hills/betfair/powers