Dundalk 7:30

Pocketfullofdreams has been bogged down on soft ground all of the 2nd half of this year. I think she will get back to form on this surface and 33/1 is a big price for a horse with decent form. She could well go of in front and stay at this trip.

 1P oint EW 33/1 4 places lads/coral 3 places elsewhere

1:25 Ascot

It appears to me that the 3yo’s in this might have the upper hand apart from the favorite. Mount Moriah caught the eye as a potential improver stepped up in trip in the Irish Ledger and he is a huge price here because he wasn’t suited by the drop back in trip last time in a race that turned into ta sprint. He has also performed on soft ground and on form there may not be much between him and Desert Skyline so an extra zero on the price is always welcome. A 3 figure price is the icing on the cake.

1 Point EW 100/1 ¼ 365 100/1 1/5^th sporting/vc

2:00 Ascot

Washington Dc has been as good as ever this year and when I look at it he has performed on soft ground before. He is the sort of horse that needs thing to go his way but as this race will be run at a mental pace it should really suit him 100/1 is more than double his real price here.

2 Points EW 100/1 1/4 place 365 15th elsewhere

2:40 Ascot

The French have a strong hand here but I fancy the outsider of their runners here. The Juliet Rose has won on soft/heavy has had a very light season and wasn’t far behind Bateel on her first run this year. This end of season race on soft ground could well be a great opportunity for her at a big price.

2 Points win 20/1 365/sporting/betfair/paddy

3:15

I’m afraid I can’t resist old habits and despite the soft ground I just can’t resist a small EW bet on Lancaster Bomber here. The straight at Ascot is one of the best draining courses around and with high winds forecast,  it’s worth a small risk just in case I’ve my head in my hands at the finish and am not on.

1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ Place 365 1/5^th hills/betfair/paddy/stan

3:50

Cliffs of Moher has been my pick for this all week and now he is a bigger price than I expected at 11/1. He will be suited by the stiffer test here and for me was the big eye catcher in the Irish Version.

2 Points win 11/1 365/lads/coral

4:30 Ascot

I’m going to go with a couple here at huge price that have form on soft. Gabriel has been running well this year and looks to have a very high chance of getting in the 5 here as he is super consistent and of a reasonable mark. In addition Eddystone Rock’s best ever run was on soft ground in Ireland when really hacking up giving a very good horse weight. He also was a bit of an eye catcher last time out in the Cambridgeshire when getting going far too late to finish well.

1 Point EW Gabriel 40/1  5 places ¼ 365/lads

1 Point EW Eddystone Rock 40/1 5 places ¼ 365 1/5^th generally

6:30 Caulfield Cup

I’ve been having a look at Sir Isaac Newtons runs down here and most of them have been over too short a trip. He looks to be improving all the time and ran well in this last year after pulling way to hard all the way. He was a better horse that the favourite here Johannes Vermeer and my gut is he will run a lot better here than his huge price indicates.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 places sky/fred

3:00 Newmarket

The easiest pick of the day is a hug price. Mendelssohn clearly didn’t enjoy it last time out and I think he will be far more at home here on fast ground. His previous win was decent despite being very green and I fully expect him to step up significantly here . 80/1 is just silly

1 Point EW 80/1 365 ¼ place  paddy/betfair/888/vc 1/5 place

3:40 Newmarket

Star Rider likes this track, ran well in this last year despite being in the wrong position all the way and again ran well from a poor position at Ascot this year all off higher marks than today. If he were mine today would be the day with all those factors. He has been poor his last 2 starts but that was on softer ground and my guess is he has 1 target this year.66/1 is huge with 7 places. If it wasn’t for the draw in another county id be really letting loose here.

1.5 Points EW 66/1 7 places Paddy/Betfair 66/1 6 places generally

Digeanta ran a great race for us at Galway at a big price and is always competitive in these races. He has had a break since 2 poorer runs over shorter trips in August and im fairly sure he will be a fair bt better today.40/1 looks value

1 Point EW 40/1 8 places sky/hills 7 places paddy/betfair

York 3:15

Today could be the day for Growl, he has been as good as every this year on top class races and a a mark of 105 with a 5 lbs claimer on is going to put him right in the mix here. 20/1 is just huge for what looks one the most likely winners and a 10/1 shot.

2 Points win 20/1 generally  

Newmarket 3:35

I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.

3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/black

5:15

Felix Mendersson has always been a bit of a disappointing horse but I saw a lot of promise in his 3^rd at the Curragh in May and 3^rd in what could be a very decent Maiden Hurdle 2 months ago. I think the step up on the flat could really suit him and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to improve here at a huge price. Ill have to go for a small saver on Western Boy, who is well capable here is on a going day. I was away this weekend so have missed the good EW price.

1 Point EW 50/1 Felix Mendersson 5 places generally

1 Point win 20/1 Western Boy

Ascot 3:00

I’m not convinced at all by the Sprint cup form and altough the favs form stands out he looks too short here at the weights . Magical Memory was poor in that race but if we ignore that he really should go close here . 8/1 looks really big  for a group 1 class horse here.

2 points win 8/1 generally

Newmarket 2:40

Qemah looks the best in this race. Things haven’t really worked out fir her this year but I think she can come good today at a decent price. 7/1 is certainly value and I expect her to go off around 9/2 .

2 points win 7/1 generally

3:05 Arc

Not a lot of time for explanations but Silverwave has a good record around here and there is nothing between any of these French horses. This race needs a huge amount of luck on the ground and around here and I’d prefer to be on a 200/1 shot that is a 66/1 shot than any of the lower priced horses. He actually appears to be better than ever this year and his last run can be ignored and he will be prepared for today. My gut feeling is Enable and Order of saint George and Capri will fight out the finish. Im also going to go for a small win saver on Satono Diamond as he still has prospected of beign a top class horse and 50/1 is value

2 Points EW Silverwave 4 places 365 200/1 ¼ Place

1 Point win 50/1 Satono Diamond Generally

4:35 Chantilly

Duke of Firenze goes on any ground but won’t be at all inconvenienced with the soft ground here. He was great in this race last year in 6^th without getting a decent run through and I think he is capable of outrunning his odds here. 100/1 with 4 places is worth a shot.

1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 80/1 4 places sky/boyles

3:35 Newmarket

Ive had Battle of Marathon in mind for this at a huge price for a while and with the ground now soft  he really has everything in his favor. Considering he was 5th in last years Royal Hunt Cup of a mark of 110 on soft ground and if effectively 20 lbs lower now with the aid of a 7lbs claimer with a good record for this trainer, 66/1 with 6 places looks very big. The trainer is in decent form of late. He was also 3rd in last years Lincoln of 5 lbs lower again on soft ground. In fairness a lot of luck in needed here but 66/1 is just massive.

2.5 Points EW 66/1 6 places Paddy/Betfair

New  2:55

Declarationofpeace is getting another shot from me here after an improved performance last time out. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him give his best performance of the season here and that makes the 66/1 great value. He had a bit too much to do last time out but it’s possible that was a cautious run after him bombing out at Ascot.

1 Point EW 66/1 365 ¼  place  1/5^th elsewhere

3:15 Haydock

Going through this field its possible Rene Mathis has the best soft ground form on offer. He will certainly be staying on at the finish here having won a big handicap on soft over 7 furlongs in the past. His last run was impressive and although he has been on a break since he is running of a workable mark here. He could be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here

2 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/Betfair

Ripon 3:45

Right Touch disappointed last time out after being backed. He has a very good record around here and is now on a very nice mark. He won’t the far away in the finish here. 20/1 is great value

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Haydock 2:40

Kinglami’s record on soft/heavy ground is exceptional. He has never done anything really when it hasn’t been soft and of bottom weight here with plenty of bookies going 4 places the 14 runners 28/1 is starting to look very big. His second last run was very good really. We have his last run to forgive but there would have to be some negative for a horse of that price.

1.5 Points EW 28/1 4 places lads/paddy//betfair/coral

Newbury 3:25

First Flight is just far too consistent over this trip and conditions to be a 40/1 shot here. He is cast iron to be involved in the finish and looks about a 3/1 shot to be placed at best. Mosse is one of the best jockeys around and was 2^nd on his earlier on this year. He will give us a run for our money. I think given his profile the extra place is worth a drop in win price.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Hills 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/lads and others

Newmarket 3:10

Agent Murphy is taking a step up in trip which is what he needs judging by his form a few years ago. If he gets held up here and can improve again here as he has been doing in his runs this year he can get involved. There is a slight risk that he may be getting ready for a big run in the main race is a few weeks’ time but at 25/1 he is worth the risk as the class horse of the race of a workable mark.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Newbury 4:00

Muthmir is a Group 1 performer and when I look at this race he just wins most of the time. There will be a mad pace with multiple front runners and that should set it up perfectly for him here. Apart from his last run he has been on top form this year and is really about a  3/1 shot here so 6/1 is great value.

I’m just going to have a small just in case bet on Just Glamorous at a huge price. He has not been staying in his races this year and should be getting fitter with each race. One of these days he will stay out there and cause a shock. 80/1 is worth the risk

2 Points win 6/1 Muthmir Generally  

½ Point win 80/1 Just Glamorous Generally

Newbury 2:15

There is nothing between My Dream Boat and the fav Desert Encounter on form and my guess is todays trip will be right up My Dream Boats’ alley. Even on this year’s form he is one of the most likely winners here and he has some top class form on good ground. He should be certainly 3rd fav here and 12/1 is way too big he will go of around 7/1. If he settles at all he can pick of most of these.

2 Points win 12/1 365/hill/lads/coral