So much for reducing my bets.

3:35 Doncaster

When the ground was drying out I felt that Douglas MacArthur was one of the bets of the year at 50/1. I’m afraid the softer ground has tempered that confidence a fair bit. He is still a decent bet at that price but on good ground he looked a certainty to be in the first 4 here. He has better form and is certainly a far better horse than some that are less than half his price. He has also looked a possible stayer on a few occasions once he is not haring off in front. 50/1 with 4 places on paddy/betfair is still massive as I have him near a 20/1 shot at most

3 Points EW 50/1 4 Places Paddy/Betfair 40/1 4 Places Sky

3:00 Doncaster

Seahenge looked like a horse that had no idea he was supposed to speed up and the end last time out behind Eagle Eye. He wasn’t really forced to in a reasonably tender looking ride and I think he may well have learned from that and 16/1 is just too big.

1 Point win 16/1 vc/paddy/boyle/betfair

2:25

Peace Envoy is a horse I’ve liked from last year and despite 2 poor runs in top class races lately on firm ground I think he could well be better here on softer ground. He has plenty of form in the book that makes him interesting and if he is ready to rune here after a break he is a classy horse to be up to 28/1

1 Point win 25/1 Generally 28/1 sporting/betfair

Doncaster 1:30

Eastern Impact is on a decent mark here and I’m always willing to forgive sprinters a bad run or two. He could well be the classiest runner in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a resurgence here at a big looking 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 vc/uni/32/black/888/betfair

4:50 Irish Ledger

I don’t think there is much between Torcedor/Wicklow Brave and Twilight Pavement and with that in mind the 40/1 about Twilight Pavement looks a good 25% too big. He also appears better on softer ground and earlier this year he lost by 5lengths to Torcedor giving him 6 lbs when he got away a bit too easy turning for home. That run puts them very close on form 40/1 is too big

1 Point EW 40/1 ¼ Bet365  40/1 1/5^th elsewhere.

3:05 Leop

I just can’t resist a 3 figure price that has any shout at all and I’m going to go with a small bet here on Pious Alexander. She should have no chance here on ratings but has caught the eye twice without any luck in decent races and if she gets a rune here I think she can get involved at an outrageous price.

1 Point EW 150/1 Stars/unibet/32/888 100/1 Elsewhere

2:25 Haydock Sprint Cup

This is as easy a pick as I’ve had in a while. The Tin Man is a dual Group 1 winner over 6 furlongs, has form on soft and was 2^nd in this last year when he was slow away. He is a better horse than Brando and is more than twice the price. He does have a poor run last time out to forgive but that is always the way in sprints. 8/1 is huge he is a 9/2 shot here. The fav could struggle on this ground

3 Points win 8/1 Fred/Paddy/VC/tote/boyles/betfair

6:45 Leopardstown

The Grey Gatsby moved to Dermot Weld and has been caught up in a stable hugely out of form since. I thought he traveled well last time until he ran out of puff over 12 furlongs. This has always been his trip and he has landed here with decent ground and at a huge price in the worst edition of this race ever run. 66/1 is easily worth the risk , especially now the stable has come back to form.

1.5 Points EW 66/1 Bet365 1/4 Place 66/1 1/5th elsewhere

Curragh 4:20

Dinkum Diamond is a horse I was following for a while earlier this year thinking he would pop up at a big price at some stage this year. He has shown improved form on his last 2 runs and I’d have to think he will run his best race in Ireland this year today. He is a stone below his very consistent uk form and has been traveling much better in his last few races. In Galway he was outside the whole way around and did well to get anywhere near there. He traveled well here last time out to be second in a decent race without a 5lbs claimer on and that run with a bit of improvement will put him close enough here to make 40/1 enticing.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Ladbrokes / Coral 33/1 6 places Sky

York 2:25

I can’t get my eyes of Sheikzayedroad here. He looks to have a superb chance at what looks a big price. He meets nothing here that is of Group1 class and although he wasn’t as good this year in his 2 runs after Mayden, as he was last year, he tried to do too much too soon in following Big Orange last time out. The fav look a fair bit overrated to me and almost everything else has fairly big question marks. St Michel could improve but he is in here on level weights and was fairly soundly beaten by my selection last year getting a stone.

In Meyden Sheikzayedroad ran a superb race in the Gold Cup not really getting any luck. I’d be as sure as I can be that he will improve here as he really kicked on last year towards the end of the year with 2 very good Group 2 wins.

He actually seems the most likely winner and 8/1 is huge.

3 Points win 8/1 365/fred/paddy/tote/betfair

York 3:00

I’ve been looking at Aeolus for this and dithering about putting him up, with my new found idea of putting up far less horses than before. He just looks like a horse that is in top form at the moment and although on the face of it he looks to have to make up about 7lbs to get seriously involved, he has in the past been of a mark that would be very competitive here. He was superb in the Stewards Cup and that race is close enough to this level to make it a strong possibility that he can find the improvement. He was also a big eye catcher on his previous run. 33/1 with 4 places looks great value . Bet365 are the best as they has 4 places and ¼ odds.

1.5 Points EW 33/1 4 places 365/paddy/betfair

I’m going to change my way of betting for about 1 year from this weekend. Although I’m near 20% ROI for almost 10 years of posting tips. I think up to 300-400 tips a year is just too many to follow.

For 12 months I’m going to only tip the ones I feel are madly overpriced and see how that goes. No more 50/1 shots that are 33/1.

The total bets I’m aiming for over the year is about 40. Anyone who actually reads my analysis would realize that there is often a huge amount of confidence compared to normal (suedois during Goodwood was an example), and in going to try and only go with those for the year. By definition they will all be more or less max bets.

When I look over figures if I just stick with Aidan O’Brien 2nd and 3rd choices and the very few lower than 3/1 shots I pick the ROI would be mental. From what I can see I’ve only had about 2 losers from about 16-18 picks over 2-3 years at lower than 3/1 7/2. Most of these were in the 2/1 3/1 range as well.

It will mean there will be many weekends with no bets.

Curragh 3:35

Declarationofpeace was thought of as the second coming before his race at Ascot and he really bombed out with a run too poor to be true. He could easily come back to form here and 20/1 is just a silly price for a 2yo that had such confidence behind him last time out. It’s near impossible to know which if these are best. 20/1 is a huge price

2 Points win 20/1 fred/paddy/tote/betfair

Haydock 1:55

The starting point in these races is to pick a decent jockey and Sammy Jo Bell is on one of my old fav horses here in Gabrial’s King. He seems to be running into form all the while dropping to his last winning mark and is also back to what is probably his right trip around here. He has performed well on softer ground before and I just think he will be staying on here with the advantage of a decent jockey 14/1 looks great value

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Haydock 4:35

I’m gutted to get up this morning and see that the 10/1 is gone about Toofi. Everything is in his favour today and if he gets going at all he wins. At 10/1 it would have been a max bet but we’ll just has to go with a smaller bet now that silliness has cost us a few points.

1 Point win 15/2 Generally

Ascot 1:05

Tropics has course form on soft ground and this mark is a stone below his best. He has been gradually improving this year and in this field he looks the most likely winner. 11/1 is Value

2 Points win 11/1 vc/lads/coral/boyle 10/1 generally

Ascot 1:40

If Cosmelli can repeat his good run in the Northumberland plate he might look a small bit of value here at a huge price. He finished his race really well there from way to far back and although we do have to forgive him a terrible run here last time out its worth the risk at 50/1. Well go for a min win bet just in case.

½ Point win 50/1 vc/paddy/betfair

Ascot 2:50

Leader Writer has some nice form on soft in France and was a decent listed class horse there. 89 is an interesting mark when you take a good look at some of his form and 20/1 is a price worth a risk. He was poor last time but if he wasn’t he wouldn’t be such a big price. A small min win bet is what to go for here.

½ Point win 20/1 fred/paddy/betfair

Tipperary 6:55

Easter Lily looked a very good prospect after her first 2 runs and although she wasn’t that great in her last run she appeared to me to go off too quick and will probably be better not running from the front. This is a weaker race than that Group3 and I’m not sure the form of the other horses in this really stacks up any better than hers. 11/1 is far too big.

2 Points win 11/1 hills/VC 10/1 Generally  

Deauville 2:45

I think the bookies have got it seriously wrong here with the price of Magical Memory  . He has form on soft, is on a roll and on his day is a Group 1 performer. A fair amount if this field aren’t near good enough to win. That said Signs of Blessing and Caravaggio could be hard enough to beat but I don’t his this race with suit the favourite Caravaggio. Signs of blessing looks the most likely winner and is probably value at 5/1 but I’ll stick with an 8/1 shot that is 16/1 in Magical Memory.

2 Points win 16/1 generally

Galway 4:30

The top 2 in the market here ran in one of the toughest races of the year only a few days ago and I just can’t let Ted Veale go of at 14/1 in this race. Ok he has a huge amount of ground to make up with one of my favourite horses Shaneshill but if he is ever to do it this might be the race. There is very little between him and the second fav here who is 7/2. He will go of about 8/1 so 14/1 is great value

2 Points win 14/1 Sky/Lads/ 12/1 elsewhere.

Galway 3:55

Frankel would have had trouble winning from where Stipulate started in his previous race here on Monday . If he jumps of better today from a good draw that 25/1 is great value.

1 Point win 25/1 365 20/1 elsewhere.