• 100/1 Real Longshots
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  • Betting History Overall Total 840 Point Profit
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  • 2022 Results 284 Point Profit 45.6% ROI
  • 2021 Results 250 Point Profit 30.8 % ROI
  • 2020 Results 193 Points Profit 37.9% ROI
  • 2019 50 Point loss ROI 13% loss
  • 2018 Results 18.5Points Profit 3.44% Roi
  • 2024 So Far 153.4 Profit on 628.75 invested ROI 26%
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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Long Shot Saturday

03 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 Goodwood

If you look at the races Dark Shot gets cover and the ones he doesn’t, there is a huge difference. He got none here during the week again and ran poorly. He’ll certainly get it here and look sure to get involved in the finish.

2 Points EW 7 places 20/1 sky 6places paddy/betfair

2:25 Goodwood

What a Welcome, seemed to do too much early last time out and can be forgiven. If he can get back to the form of his run here earlier this year, he’ll be involve in the finish here. He’s on a workable mark compared to the fav.

1 Point EW 4 places 25/1 Gen

3:40 Goodwood

George Bowen has been the only horse on my mind or this for a while, and I was hoping for a big price. He has been good this year, but has excuses for his last few poor runs, which have him now on the right mark.

2 Points EW 33/1 7 places Sky 6places paddy Lads

2:30 Galway

Mitchouka, showed a return to form on his second last run and I wonder will he be suited by this step up in trip given his good 4yo form on soft ground. He’s on a nice mark with a 7lbs claimer on, in a relatively poor race for the money.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places paddy/vc/sky

3:40 Goodwood

I’ve been looking for a low drawn horse, and I’m going to go with Hyperfocus. He is an all or nothing performer but has won of this mark is drawn 2. He has been gradually improving lately, and 100/1 is the price I was looking for

1 Point EW 100/1 7 places sky, 6 places else

Long shot Friday

02 Friday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Good wood 3:00

Well Drawn, course form . Big price . Has to be backed here . Chance if he can get over standard meydan headache . 

1 pt ew Original Choice 50/1 5 places

 

3:35

There isn’t a lot between any of these after the fav and Ornate will be suited by the fast track here . 

1 pt ew 50/1 gen

 

Galway 5:10

Can’t resist Orgilgo Bay . Back from a very long break with some flat runs . On a good mark in a race he has form  .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places (extra place special) 365 4 places elsewhere

Wednesday Longshot

31 Wednesday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:35 Goodwood

Its yet to be proven that the current 3yo’s are anything but ordinary, so given that the older milers form keeps getting strengthened this year , we’ll have to go for the value options here.  Accidental Agent is near the best of these on his day. If his head is right today he can get involved at a huge price. Similarly I Can Fly has a big race in her at some stage .

1 Point EW 50/1 Accidental Paddy

1 Point EW I Can Fly 40/1 Paddy

7:20 Galway

I’ve only had 1 horse in mind for this since I saw the entry. Coney Island is the class horse in the race, of what look a good mark. Once more over the cliff

2 Points win 14/1 paddy/betfair/vc

Good1:50

Fun Mac looks sure to go close here . Worst phrase in racing is ew bet to nothing , that might apply to him . I’ll still go win though .

1 point win 12/1 gen

 

Tuesday longshot

30 Tuesday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:35 

Southern France is a forgotten relatively unexposed 2 miler.

 

2 pts ew 25/1

7:40. Going for 4 last places in a row, but down in class, drawn 1 and blinkers on. It would be rude not to. #everythinghasitsprice . Zabriskie
 
1 Point EW 100/1 5 places various

Galway Day 1

29 Monday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Galway 5:55

Water Sprite is interesting here at a huge price . He’s had a break and a pipe opener and also has a claimer on . He also has course form on the flat . 

1 point ew 5 places 33/1 gen

Long shot Saturday

27 Saturday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:00 ascot

Intisaab 1 point ew 50/1 6 places 

Good Effort 1 point we 40/1 6 places

3:45

Hopeful Norway won’t be a pacemaker today . Im going for bet365 extra place special at 50/1 ew 5 places . 1 point ew

Long Shot Saturday

20 Saturday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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2:25

Jukebox Jive has been improving this year, has form around here on soft . His mark should put him close enough here at this trip .

1 point ew 50/1 5 places hills, sky, coral

 

3:00

Not a long shot but The Tin Man is a long way clear of these, goes on soft and really should be shorter than 2/1 .

2 points win 2/1 gen

 

3:40

Clay Regazzoni ran better at Royal Ascot than his placing indicates , having no cover all the way and travelled well. This trip and race should suit him . This is a much weaker race 

1 pt ew 40/1 5 places 365

Curragh 3:25

Ardhoomey cant be too far away here, in what looks a poor enough renewal and of a good mark compared to last year . 

1 point ew 20/1 5 places sky/paddy

Market 2:10

Going to have a small win bet on John Constable here . He never got into it last time , but came back to life the time before . 16/1 is enough to be sorry not to be on if he gets back to form.

 1 point win 16/1 gen

Long Shot Saturday

13 Saturday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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4:00 Ascot

Accidental Agent is the best of these on his best form and if we can get over his stall stand in the Queen Anne , he is the most likely winner here. The 3 lbs he is getting from Beat the Bank should be enough and 7/1 is value.

2 Points win 7/1 Gen

York 3:50

Another Touch ran well in this last year of a higher mark and although it’s hard to know what to make of the fact that it’s his first run. 40/1 is value.

1 point ew 40/1 5 place hill/bvic

Newmarket 4:40

So Perfect is one of my horses to follow this year. I think this 6 furlongs with an uphill finish and fast ground is her ideal conditions. She gets all the allowances here and i think she will run a  big race.

2 Points EW 33/1 4 places Paddy Power

Ascot 1:45

This type of madness suits Blue De Vega perfectly judging by his Dash run. He has form here and we can write of his last 2 runs which get him here on a very nice mark.

1 Point EW 20/1 5 Places Gen

Newmarket 3:30

Good Effort was poor in Meydan but that is often the case and he has taken a while to come to hand since. The trainer knows how to get one ready for these races, and some of his form last year puts him on a decent mark.

1 Point EW 33/1 5place gen

Long Shot Saturday

06 Saturday Jul 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Eclipse

I’m fairly obviously going for Hunting Horn here . In my view after the top 2 the rest are very similar in form . He ran well last time and will give us a run for our money .

1 pt ew 100/1 80/1 generally

Long Shot Saturday

22 Saturday Jun 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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2:30

United Front is like many of the horses from the stable that look to me like they can improve readily for a run. He was disappointing last time but there is something about his action that I’ve seen before that indicated to me he is capable of much more. He should have learned from both his runs so far and 66/1 with 4 places is worth a shot.

1 Point EW 66/1 4 places Betvictor

3:05

So Perfect just wins. I’m a huge fan and expect her to win a group1 this year. Form with Advertise last year looks very good now.

3 Points win 5/1

4:20

If there is a horse that can cause a surprise here its Speak in Colours. He just looks to me like a horse that can improve this year and get involved at the business end in these races. He’s had a nice seasonal opener and will be better here. 50/1 is worth the risk to find out

1 Point EW 50/1 4 places generally

5:00

Fighting Irish ran really well in the Commonwealth Cup here last year from the wrong side,, and although things didn’t go well for him after, he is down to a very good mark. You’d have to think he would be targeted here. 80/1 is massive

1 Point EW 80/1 6 places Coral

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