• 100/1 Real Longshots
  • 2015 Bets +320 Points +198 BSP
  • 2014 Bets + 1 pts
  • 2013 Bets + 170 Points ADV + 122 BSP
  • Betting History Overall Total 840 Point Profit
  • 2015 Winners
  • 2016 Bets +40.5 Advised
  • Cheltenham Festival Huge Priced winner’s since 2010
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  • 2023 Results 707.5 Points Profit 121 % ROI
  • 2022 Results 284 Point Profit 45.6% ROI
  • 2021 Results 250 Point Profit 30.8 % ROI
  • 2020 Results 193 Points Profit 37.9% ROI
  • 2019 50 Point loss ROI 13% loss
  • 2018 Results 18.5Points Profit 3.44% Roi
  • 2024 So Far 153.4 Profit on 628.75 invested ROI 26%
  • Cheltenham last 6 years Results

LongshotValue

~ Finding Value

LongshotValue

Author Archives: longshotvalue

Cheltenham Day 1

11 Friday Nov 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3 selections for today’s racing just sent

Long Shot Saturday

05 Saturday Nov 2016

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Horse sent for today’s racing. 20/1 bet of the day

Breeders Cup Friday

04 Friday Nov 2016

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1 bet sent for this evening

Barizan II (The Return)

03 Thursday Nov 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Unfortunately like all sequels this may not have as good an ending as the Original and best tip i ever put up. I waited 2 years for the right conditions and put up a 3pt ew bet at 20/1 for his Swinton Hurdle win a few years ago. In fairness to him he finished 2nd the following 2 years as well. Today is likely to be the last chance he gets at the right conditions at his age. I wish Peter the Mayo Man wasn’t in this as he beat a very good novice last time out and could have miles in hand.

Off the cliff I go for 1 last time.

3:45 Newbury

I’m afraid i just cant resist a bet on Barizan here. He looked well on his last 2 flat runs but was particularity well in himself last time out and ran well when ridden way to far off the pace. He isn’t going to get too many more chances of a 2mile Hurdle on Good Ground at his age so i have to assume he is ready to go today. Richard Johnson is a great booking for him as it looks to me like he needs a bit of stoking up . 8/1 is a lot bigger than i expected in this race. There is a small negative, i would be loosing my mind in a normal race of this type for him but there are unfortunately some possible improvers here. Particularly the favorite whose form has worked out really well. Still 8/1 is certainly value. Lets hope we see him prominent from the beginning and never see another horse

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

Long Shot Saturday – Another Winning Saturday

31 Monday Oct 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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skysports-silsol-ballyoptic-the-romford-pele-wetherby_3819514
Weth 2:45

Silsol should probably be a fair bit shorter here. He is the highest rated, has a very good record fresh and the stable is on fire. He is one of the more consistent staying hurdlers around and Ballyoptic will really have to improve to beat him on these terms getting 4lbs. Ive missed the 7/1 around earlier so ill be taking a point of my bet, but he still warrants a 2 point win bet at 13/2

2 Points win 13/2 365/racebets/marathon

Great win by this horse after a fairly confident selection. He was completely wrong at the weights of his mark

Ascot 3:35

Saphir Du Rheu has simply been dropped too far here . He has a good record fresh and at this trip i think he can stay here no problem. He was poor enough on his 3 spring runs last year but looks to have a superb change of getting back to form here. Again I’ve missed a point but i still reckon 3/1 is great value hell/ go of at 2/1 or lower.

2 Points win 3/1 generally

We got the price right but i think the good-firm ground found him out as he was never jumping with any fluency. Still ran on well in teh wnd so i wont be as negative about this performance as many and i think he can win a decent chase at a decent price with a bit softer ground. 3rd

3:20 Wetherby

I think Menorah is the only horse in here that can on his day get close to a not 100% Cue Card. I’m sure he will be super ready for this race in compared to Cue Card who will clearly need to have improvement in him for bigger targets later on this year. 11/1 is worth the risk here as i cant see the 2nd favorite Blacklion getting involved at all here.

1 Point win 11/1 VC/Coral 10/1 elsewhere

This was the most fun looser i have seen in a long time, he ran his heart out and just failed . A couple of poor jumps near the end really cost him but what an animal to do that in that field at age 11. 2nd

Curragh 4:15

I’m going with one of the outsiders here in Chapter Seven. He’s a former group class horse and wouldn’t have been suited by his 2 poorish runs lately on very heavy ground. This decent ground 2 miles of a very low mark might just get him involved and on a couple of his runs earlier this year he might just have a sneaky chance here at a huge looking 40/1.

1 Point ew 40/1 5 places Skybet 40/1 4 places generally

Never looked likely in a disappointing run

Long Shot Sunday

23 Sunday Oct 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Couple of selections sent for today’s racing

Long Shot Saturday 2pts on easy 6/1 winner Sceau Royal

22 Saturday Oct 2016

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Nice meeting at Cheltenham today, and a few selections sent

WATCH: Sceau Royal slams his rivals in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle. #TheShowcase pic.twitter.com/0OreAFUxRa

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) October 22, 2016

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Cheltenham 3:00

Sceau Royal is at least as good as the fav here Adrien Du Pont and in receipt of 4 lbs I think they should both be about 9/4 as I don’t rate Gibralfaro at all really. 6/1 is massive value in my eyes

2 Points win 6/1 Coral/Blacktype 11/2 365/lads/hills

What a run from this horse.

Cheltenham 1:50

It’s just not like me to be going with the favourite in a race like this, but given that ¾ of the field are within a few points in the betting it can make a bit of sense here. Henryville looks to have his ideal conditions here judging by his last few very eye catching runs. I just don’t fancy anything in the race to actually win and 13/2 seems a bit of value to me.

2 Points win 13/2 Generally

Pulled up never going well, looks like some problem.

2:40 Doncaster

I’m going with a couple of huge price darts here for very small bets. I’ve been expecting Desert Law to start improving and his last run was very disappointing which has resulted in a huge price for this race. In fairness he wouldn’t have like the ground that time and the better surface here should help. 40/1 is easily worth the risk. Ill also have a little saver on Dungannon who has a good course record but has been poor since a mid-season break . I’m Hopeful he will improve today.

½ Point win Dungannon 25/1 Generally

1 Point win Desert Law 40/1 365/vc/stan/hills

Dungannon plugged on and may well win a race soon

Cheltenham 3:30

I think Sizing Platinum’s rating of 140 is very workable given his proximity to The game Changer on a few occasion’s last year. His ideal trip looks to be a bit further than 2 miles which is probably ideal around this stiff 2 mile trip. He did end the season poor enough last year but caught the eye a bit in the Galway plate despite not staying the extended trip there. He has a very similar profile to the Favourite Fox Norton here but is getting 6 lbs from him. 11/1 is great value

1 Point win 11/1 265/lads/hills/betway

Rana great race to be 2nd to the massively impressive favourite

 

Long Shot Friday

21 Friday Oct 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Couple of big priced selection sent for today

Flat Finale Long Shot Saturday

15 Saturday Oct 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Go we were mind numbingly close with our 2 biggest priced tips.

Dont Touch gave us a fair bit of excitement with his run at 66/1. HE just got touched off for a place in 5th, when we advised 4 places. In addition The Grey Gatsby repaid my faith in no uncertain terms and again just got collared on the line for 4th and another big payout advised EW at 50/1 W/O Almanzour.

The ground which judging by the times was more good-firm than anything killed off a few of our selection sin Forgotton Rules and Meccas Angel. Highland Colori ran a  big race in the final handicap but couldn’t keep it going to the line.

Overall it was a fun day considering no winning bets. Roll on the Jumpsdont-touch

Back in the Black +47 Points 2016

13 Thursday Oct 2016

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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It been a tough year this year but thanks to a very decent run of results and luck were back in profit. Ill attach a graph to show everyone what happens trying to pick big priced winners.

My original target is 66 points a year for 3 years average to double a 200 point bank, so if we can run average until December that looks achievable. Of course there will be a reduction in bet size until the Hennessy in a lot of cases as it can be a difficult time of the year.

Not included in the figures of course is my advise to combine the 3 AOB runners in the ARC and I’m still loosing sleep over that, as i didn’t specify an actual bet amount on my early email and didn’t update later on.

Were on a generally upswing since the start of Royal Ascot of over 100 points from our low point of the year.

The main issue this year has been the lack of EW bets placing, and that has caused havoc with the figures. Ill have to limit the EW bets, which is something i used to do in the past.

There in an issue with staking as well at times, in particular My Murphy, who i waited a year to have a bet in the Tyestes and ended up only having 1 point EW. There is a few examples like that. Its the first year i can remember that none of the real big horses for the year have won yet, like Guitar Pete, or Shogun and a few others that i though were certain to pick up wins at good prices.

swings

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