Navan 2:40

With the couple of Non-Runners I’m liking the look of a couple of longer shots here. KyleCrue traveled really well in the Cork National but didn’t look to stay over the extended trip there. He should be suited by this drop in trip and a decent turnaround in the weights with the winner of that race. 25/1 with paddy power looks very big. I also like the look of an unexposed novice in Georges Conn. His mark looks a few pounds lenient in his first handicap run and I think the step up in trip should suit him. 20/1 looks at least 4 points too big. I’ll make both of these min win bets as ew doesn’t look value here.

½ Point win KyleCrue 25/1 PP/ 20/1 elsewhere

½ Point win Georges Conn 20/1 PP 16/1 Elsewhere

We finished 2nd and 3rd here and although on the face of it EW looked to be a good idea in reality in the log term in these type of races with only 3 places its bad value. Still very good run from both and another Crossbar hit

2:25 Haydock

This looks a poorer race than normal and I like Mijhaar here at a huge price. All his form is on ground with cut and on the flat his best form is on heavy. Whether he takes to these hurdles is a bit of a gamble but it’s well worth it at the odds. He caught my eye at Cheltenham last year and also last time out when it looked as if 3 miles was too much. This could be a slog and he has a nice racing weight and won’t be as inconvenienced by the ground as most of the field.

1 Point EW 33/1 888/betfair/32

Seemed to collide with rails half way around and was struggling after that. There may be another day with him.

Haydock

3:00

I have to think that the favourite here is probably value as he looks a very likely winner but I think there is too much between Cue Card and Dynaste. If ever Dynaste is to have a real shout in a grade 1 this is it. I think Cue Card will struggle in the heavy ground and Dynaste will plug on here regardless. If the Fav isn’t 100% he will stand a chance of pegging him back here and 9/1 is too big to ignore. He looks more of a 6/1 shot to me.

1 Point win 9/1 vc/paddy/888

Cue Card simply smashed them. Dynaste ran his usual decent race but not near good enough on the day.

Kempton 6:55

Not my style to be picking one on a midweek AW race but this is a decent sprint and in these picking the best horse with proven form has worked out over the years. Gordon Lord Byron has been a small bit behind his top form this year but only a pound or 2 and he has also proven to be decent over a mile before. He up against a bit of a talking horse here in Richard Pankhurst who is a very short price at evens. I have GLB as more of a 4/1 shot here so the 7/1 generally available will have to be taken.

1 Point win 7/1 Generally 8/1 with Boyles

Broke too quickly and was in from from the start which would never work for him.

Kempton 7:25                                       

Communicator has some very nice AW form for a horse in here with an 88 rating. He was also a decent eye-catcher last time out when we were on at a huge price and he ran really well in the Cesarewich. He’ll be able to get competitive here and the jockey has a decent record on him. He simply doesn’t win enough but in this race of this mark 12/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 12/1 365/VC

He got shuffled back and never really got a run at all in the finish . Disappointing after being backed into 6/1

Cheltenham 2:40

I’m going to put up and early one here as Redera is a huge price now and if he is going to have a chance in this tomorrow he will certainly not go off at 40/1 . He was a bit of an eye-catcher on his last run on the flat in the Irish Ceresarewich and I think there might be a chance he has been prepared for a shot at this of a very good mark. He has run well enough around here in the past of higher marks and that fact that he has 2 flat races this year after a very long break and then shows up here from a yard that can certainly get on ready is significant. 40/1 is too big.

1 Point EW 40/1 365/stan/10bet                  

This ran a great to finish 6th just outside the places and gave us a fair bit of excitement when looking a possible winner turning for home. But he had traveled wide all the way and that told in the end. I think he may be worth following 

Punchestown 2:15                          

No matter what way I look at this race I can’t see anything other than Wicklow Brave finishing 2^nd here. He won a really top class County Hurdle on the bridle on soft ground and has gone up to a 108 rated flat performer since. He has a serious fitness edge here and 12/1 looks huge. There is the option of just backing him at just above evens to place but that isn’t as much fun as 12/1 EW.

1 Point EW 12/1  boyles/lads

Wickow ran another great race to be 3rd here not far behind a very good looking Nichols Canyon and Faugheen

Cheltenham 2:10

Sprinter Sacre’s form from last year looks good enough to win this race and on ground that doesn’t look too bad at the moment I think he should be a very solid favourite here with these conditions getting weight from most of the field. If he has improved at all he’ll win this easily.

3 Points win 3/1 365/tote/fred

Words not needed Sunning. He did fade a bit towards the end but un better ground in March UDS wont come close.

Cheltenham 3:15

Liberty One interests me here as a dual hurdles winner who didn’t really progress over fences. His last win was over some decent yardstick’s and he could be on a nice mark here. 33/1 look big. The other that looks very interesting is Brod Na Heireann whose 4^th in a hot maiden hurdle in Ireland reads very well given this mark. He probably needed his first run this year and 16/1 looks very good value .

½ Point win Liberty One 33/1 Generally

1 Point win Brod Na Heireann 16/1 Generally 18/1 Betway

Liberty looks to a have got injured and pulled up after 2 flghts . Brod flattered for a while but may need further

Paddy Power Gold Cup

I’ve had Buywise in my mind for this for a while now and have been waiting for NRNB to have a decent bet. I don’t fancy a lot of those ahead of him in the betting primarily because they have gone up too much in the weights. Buywise will need to improve his jumping but is certainly capable of winning this of this mark. He loves the hill here so if he is in contention 2 out he won’t be far away. I think the 16/1 available now will not last and I expect him to go off between 8/1 & 10/1.

2 Points EW 16/1 Ladbrokes/888/32/10bet

Well what can be said here, he was backed into 10/1 and but for not getting a clear path after the last fence he probably should have won. It was a heartbreaking 2nd but still we were on the right horse and 2pts EW at 16/1 is still a decent payout. Anoth big crossbar hit

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Present View appeals here at a very big price. He was very good in this last year of 1lb higher, and although he has been disappointing in only a few runs since, he is surly been prepared with this in mind. He also owes me one as he beat one of my bets of the festival a couple of years ago. I think 25/1 look a very big price for such good course and race form. 5 places is a big bonus here.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/tote/fred/pp and others 

Got left at the start and pulled up soon after after being way to far behind, well keep an eye on his as heel be close in one of these at a big price. 

Cheltenham 1:50

I’m guilty of following horses a bit too much in National Hunt, but that approach probably works around Cheltenham. Shotgun Paddy appeals here of a decent mark, after a poor enough year last year. What he does have is a decent record fresh and some good course form along with the certainty that he can stay this trip. This may be the time to catch him and he won’t be inconvenienced if there is any further rain. 14/1 is a bit of value. I also can’t resist a small bet on Godsmejudge, he is plenty good enough to get involved here if moving yards can spark some life back into him and it’s worth the risk at 33/1

1 Point win Shotgun Paddy 14/1 Generally

½ Point win Godsmejudge 33/1 Generally

Shotgun ran a great race to be 5th, and will undoubtedly win one of these races soon enough but may need an even longer trip. Gods ran well up to a point before getting tired but i think ill have an interest in him soon at the right price

Cheltenham 3:00

So fine sticks out here as a horse on a good mark. He has been off a long time but has been dropped to a workable mark for that and with stable in fine form he looks sure to be ready to roll here. His form around here is pretty good and 20/1 looks worth a bet.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

He was backed into 12/1 but didn’t stay probably due to lack of fitness. Again he may be of interest soon at a hopefully big price.

Lingfield 2:35

Medicean Man is being overlooked unfairly here at a big looking 9/1.There isn’t a lot between him and the ones at the top of the market on form this year and on his day he can be better than any of them. He has very good AW form in general and the bookies have overreacted to his last un which was a bit below form but I’m always ready to forgive sprinters a poorer run.

1 Point win 9/1

traveled well but didn’t look to stay the 6 around here.

Cheltenham 2:50

I love these races and I think Rivage Dor has been overlooked a bit. He won of a break at the festival with a bit in hand and doesn’t look to be too badly punished here. He ran a decent race in the Irish Grand National after that and I’m pretty sure that probably took too much out of him for the punchestown race. I think he should be the solid favourite here and 9/1 is value. Rose of the moon appeals here as well at a big price with the weights after a good run at punchestown but the way Rivage stormed up the hill last march I’ll be going with him

2 Points  win 9/1 VC/Hills

Cheltenham 3:25

I like the look of 2 in this race. Trendsetter has a nice profile for this race. He had 3 ok runs in maidens and now arrives here on a good mark after some decent improvement on the flat this year. He should be well in here if he can improve over hurdles as well, and this stable is well capable of targeting this race. Benissimo also is interesting at a huge price. He was very disappointing after a good win in may this year and also on his return, but he may have needed that race and hopefully has this as his target of a decent mark. He has other form which makes interesting reading and on his day should be capable of getting involved here at a huge price.

1 Point win Trendsetter 14/1 365/boyles/vc/hills and others

1 Point win Benissimo 33/1 generally, 40/1 and bigger with Betway and Betfair

Cheltenham 4:00

Return Spring stands out a bit here in that he loves it around here and ran as well as could be expected in the 4 miler at the festival when it looked like he didn’t stay. He has a touch of class and this trip in a weaker race should be more in his line. The trainer is in form and if this fairly inexperienced rider is decent he is in here with a very nice racing weight. Ericht is another that looks another interesting candidate here. He can perform of this mark and does have a very decent record fresh, in addition to the fact that he has a very good rider on here. He is probably worthy of a small saver bet.

1  Point win Return Spring 10/1 tote/Fred

½   Point win Ericht 12/1 Generally

Melbourne Cup

I’ve come close to getting huge priced ones close in this few times, and the definite value here in at the big priced end of the market. I’ll start with Kingfisher, he was 2^nd in the Gold Cup and to my mind has been prepared with this in mind of what looks a great mark. He still has bags of potential and 50/1 is a bit of an insult.

Trip to Paris’s run in the Caulfield Cup make the British runners odds look value so I also like the look of Quest for More he has been a very good stayer this year and although he was poor on his Aussie Debut I think that can be ignored and he looks sure to be better here at a huge price of 66/1.

Big Orange is another that interests me at a huge price. I don’t think he liked the softer ground last time out and he looks like one that could be suited by this race. 66/1 looks silly.

1 Point win Kingfisher 50/1Bet365 Fixed

1 Point EW Quest For More 66/1 5 Places Sky/Ladbrokes

1 Point EW Big Orange 66/1 4 Places 888/32/Betfair

We were very close to a very decent payout here with Big Orange who finished in 5th. I went for the bigger price and 4 places. He ran a  super race and was gaining again at the end after looking in a bit of trouble. Quest for More also ran a great race as well in 8th and i couldn’t have been more excited as they were turning for home both travelling well in 1st and 3rd. We certainly got huge value at huge prices there i think both will be in contention again next year. 

Every selection was significantly backed today, but unfortunately none really lived up to market expectations.

Ascot 2:50

I felt last year that Jolly’s Cracked it had a bit more to give and a very good couple of novice runs and a good 5^th in the Betfair Hurdle. He ended the season not in the best of form, but around here he should be able to get back to his best. I think he is also relatively well handicapped here in comparison to a few others in the betting and 8/1 with Ladbrokes looks a very decent price. A horse like Nabucco is much shorter for no apparent reason really.

1 Point win 8/1 Ladbrokes 7/1 elsewhere.

Backed into 5/1 and failed by 3/4 of a length to get up. Im not one for blaming jockies but he was too far back here and too too long to get him going. Great run all teh same and he’ll be winning a big handicap this year.

Ascot 3:25

If anything Houblon desObeaux was better than ever last year and despite that he arrives here on a decent mark. He has a great record fresh and is still only and 8yo. He was 2^nd in the Hennessy and just couldn’t give over a stone to the young master here after that. Top weight has never bothered him before and to me he looks one of the more likely winners and thus is great value at 14/1. Im going to have a small saver bet on Cantlow as he was travelling well last time and my gut is telling me to back him at a huge price as well see some improvement here.

1 Point win Houblon des Obeaux 14/1 tote/fred/vc/james

He was backed into 10/1 and was never really travelling, Disappointing

½ Point win CAntlow 28/1 VC/James/Bright

Backed into 20/1 and ran well to be 5th, he looks ont eh way back and should be capable of winning soon enough

Ayr 4:00

Cloudy Too has been lightly raced since a few exceptions chase performances a couple of years ago but didn’t shape without hop on his 2 runs last season. He has a decent record fresh and really is on a good hurdles mark here. 16/1 looks value

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Backed in to 11/1 and made mistakes early and was never in it after that

Ascot 2:15

Baby Mix has been running well since he came back from a long break but I have a feeling he may well be a bit better over 2 miles here. The fav looks to be on a nice mark here but I’m hopeful that Baby Mix can get his head in front over this shorter trip. I’m thinking that he may try to win this from the front and that should suit his running styr as he is a good jumper and could get into a good rythym. 8/1 looks a decent price

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Backed in to 9/2 and was going well until between the last 2 where he started to go backwards. Afterwards it transpired he was injured so hopefully hell be ok to race again.

1 Added for the Breeders Cup Tonight

2:15 Wetherby

Fago is a horse I had liked the look of a few times before. I think he can fulfil the potential he has shown . He is a bit of a risk today in that he hasn’t run for a year but he looks well worth the risk in this race at 8/1. HE has been given a bit of a chance by the handicapper and if he is fit and ready to go here I think he may be hard to beat. We will know our fate as if he ig going to perform here there will surely be a few quid for him before the race.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Great run from this horse to be 2nd where his only bad jump at the last and possibly a small lack of fitness after a long layoff cost him. He traveled really well and had to have gone very short in running. There is a decent race in him.

Breeders Cup 7:30

Shogun was one that interested me in this race after his run in France. He is of even more interest now given a good draw and a higher price than I anticipated. He was an eye catching 5^th in france and this race should be run at a much greater pace which should suit him. He is also the lowest drawn of the more fancies horses and 12/1 looks great value.

1 Point win 12/1

Was too slow away and probably not quick enough in the end.