Long Shot Saturday Part 1

Newmarket 3:50

Since I looked at this race a few days ago Gabrial’s Kaka has interested me at a big price. I’ve been waiting for the extra place specials to come alive for this and now most bookies are 5 places. Last year he won the Spring Cup and put up a fair few decent performances after that of marks of 103. He has been fairly poor most of this year but until his last run he has been improving steadily as he has dropped the weight’s. He has a few excuses for this last run when well supported and I think he may be value at a huge looking 50/1 with Paddy Power. He is 40’s elsewhere and that would also be fine. My gut is he may be put up by one of the more prominent tipsters and it could be worth getting on before then.

1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy Power

This one ran well and was backed but on the wrong side and never stood a chance

Market Rasen 2:50

Edgardo Sol is a frustrating animal have no doubt about that but my gut is he has found a good opportunity here. He ran really well first time out for this stable last year and he is down to a very good mark here after 2 poorer runs at the end of last season. This is his best trip and ground and he may be picking the best time to oppose some of the shorter priced runners in this race. If he can get near the form of his first run last year in the Old Roan Chase he’ll be difficult to beat of this mark. 12/1 with paddy power is very good value and I’d be happy with the 10/1 available elsewhere.

1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power

He clearly wasn’t ready for this run, and needed it.

Haydock 3:55

Robot Boy ran better than his final placing suggests in the Portland 2 weeks ago and is probably better over 5 furlongs. He showed plenty of speed there and if he was to get away here in a similar vein he may be more difficult to pass over this trip and off a better mark. 25/1with Paddy Power is the value and id also be happy with the 20/1 available elsewhere.

1 Point win 25/1 Paddy Power.

He ran really well after being slow away to finish 4th, its possible the value will be gone next time of 5 furlongs.

 Newmarket 5:35

Field of Dream came back to form 2 runs ago and I wouldn’t be surprised if he can outrun his odds again. He was poor last time out which explains the big price but in these races I can easily forgive 1 run. He is well capable off this mark and at 20/1 worth the risk.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

He Ran very poor and well have to leave him alone for a while now

Newmarket 3:50

I’ve been looking at this race a lot all week and along with my first selection I’ve been drawn to Fire Fighting at a huge price. Some of his handicap form this year is very good and I think his chance of getting involved here is very good for a 50/1 shot. He has been very consistent this year in big handicaps and that augers well for his place chance at least here. It’s asking a lot of this mark but he has a touch of class and is worth the risk at that price.

The other I’m going for here is Educate. He has had some strange looking runs this year and is of a very favourable mark over this favourite trip and course. I had set a bar of a price id get interested in and 28/1 is comfortably over that price.

½ Point EW 50/1 Fire Fighting 6 Places SKYBET 5 Places elsewhere

1 Point 28/1 Educate Generally

Neither ran up to form in an admittedly tough race.

Haydock  5:05

I can’t resist a small bet on Ile De Re here at a huge price. Alright he has been poor for a long time now but these really are his conditions and trip. He is down to a very low mark and gets genuine soft ground that he certainly needs. He has performed well of this kind of break before and if there is to be a time he will ever get back to some kind of form this race may well be it. 50/1 is just too big not to take the risk.

1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy Power & Coral

Ran like the 100/1 shot he went of on betfair. So it’ll be a while yet before he wins.

Ran poorly and not backed at all which told the story

Ayr Silver Cup 2:35
I’m afraid the Cliff Awaits .I have to stick with Hawkeyethenoo here. He didn’t get the race run as he would prefer last time along with it being too soft over 7 furlongs. Good/Soft over 6 may well be his ideal conditions and to my eye he still have a race like this in him. Hard to know what to make of the draw he will probably come up the middle hopefully, but he’s worth the risk at 25/1 with 5 places. We’re still in profit with him this year after his placing at 40/1 earlier so hopefully we can get another good run from him here.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Tote/Boyles/Fred 28/1 Hills

I’ve been looking for something drawn high here to compliment Hawkeye and I’ve settled on Jamaican Bolt at a big price. He was a bit of an eye catcher last time behind Hoof It after the jockey taking the wrong option. If he breaks well here from this side of the draw he should be able to get involved and has had a light season compared to most of the field. He also came good around this time last year and 33/1 seems value
1 Point EW 33/1 5 places VC/Coral

This was a headwreaking watch. He was slow away and never got the gaps quickly enough to get involved. He finished with loads in the tank so there will be another day but its getting frustrating at this stage. Jamacian Bolt was never in with a chance here.
Ayr Gold Cup 3:10
There is a few here that I was hoping would be a bigger price particularly Jack Dexter so I’ll be pretty unhappy if he wins tomorrow as I feel there is a big race in him but can’t get interested at around 12/1 tomorrow in a race like this. My gut here is to go for a few win darts rather than EW bets. Highland Colori showed up well a few times this year and seems to me to have been prepared with this race in mind. He is drawn high and looks overpriced at 25/1 as a previous winner of this off a higher mark. Professor seems to be well overpriced here given his return to form on his last run and his 2nd in the Wokingham last year of a 6lbs higher mark. Boom the Groom should get this race run the way he needs and I fancy him to be flying home here if he gets the gaps.
1 Point win Highland Colori 25/1 Boyles/Betfair

1 Point win Professor 40/1 Generally

1 Point win Boom the Groom 40/1 Sky/Paddy/Coral

Highland Colori ran a great race and is clearly getting back to good form, the other 2 never really had a chance and maybe there is a lesson there to stick with the first pick in these races.
Newbury 2:50
Mister Music looks a bit too quickly written off after his last run where the race finished in a mess with runners all over the track on ground softer than ideal. If we look at his previous 2 runs I think we can give him a real shout here. Particularly his second last run when placed at Sandown in a similar race to this. He got no room on a few occasions and still ran with credit. He is formally a much higher rated horse and if he is coming back to form he is well capable of getting involved here at a huge looking price. There won’t be any further rain here today and the track should dry out to fairly standard good/Soft which will be grand for him.
1 Point EW 33/1 tote/fred/vc/lads/coral

This horse traveled well and he didn’t see it out in the softer ground. He really interests  me in a good ground 10 furlong handicap in the near future. He is gone into my tracker , and will hopefully surface in the right race with the right d=conditions shortly.

Ayr 3:05

These Ayr cups are my kind of race on the flat even though its head wrecking to try to pick one in any of them. I’m going to go with a previous pick of mine Go Far at a decent price. He was very good at Goodwood when he looked like a very good horse in the Stewards Cup Consolation but was very poor next time out ant Kempton. I don’t think being behind everything suited him around there and I wouldn’t be surprised if this suited him a lot better. 25/1 with 5 places looks decent value

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Sky/Boyles/Lads/Coral/Hills

Just got watch this race the now, and my god he won well. He’s been a good horse for us also getting placed at 40/1 earlier this year.

Ayr 3:40

Easy pick here in Classy Anne at a big price. She has a great course record around here having nearly always run well and won twice including a very good win here earlier this year of this mark.  She has been poor since but I think we can be reasonably sure that she will be ready for this race, having run well in it last year. Her general profile is very consistent especially around here so that makes her an EW bet at a very big looking 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 Sky/Boyles/Lads/hills

Showed up well but flattered to deceive 

Listowel  4:20

I had a decent look at this last night and decided that Pricewise had found the value and wreaked the price on my original thought Owega Star, but I had been hoping it would go out in price and that has obviously not happened so in looking elsewhere I hoped that Dare to Endeavour would get into the race as one of the reserves (which he has).  He has a liking for soft ground and is below his last winning mark. He was poor enough last season after progressing nicely with 3 soft ground staying wins in the beginning of 2014. He showed a bit of decent form on his second last run in England  for Tom George when second at Sandown. He was poor enough in his first run at Cork over hurdles for his new yard but I’d be hopeful that these conditions will bring out the best in him and with a nice light weight he should be staying on at the end when most have given up the ghost. 33/1 looks decent value.

1 Point ew 33/1 Boyles/Sporting/Stan/Hills

He got outpaced about 3 out but flew at the finish to be about 6th . Looks like a big slow boat and needs possibly a greater test, which there isn’t many of. Still ran well for a 33/1 shot.

Delighted to see one of the fastest sprinters I’ve seen overcome less than ideal conditions for a great win today for a 2pt bet advised at 7/1.

2 Two Point bets sent for today along two big outsiders at 33/1 & 20/1

2:00 Curragh

Didn’t even notice this very good handicap on the card when I looked earlier.  I think Kasbah sticks out a bit as being well treated and having had a light season he seems to be getting going now judging by his last run. Some of his 2yo form makes interesting reading for a 87 rated horse and I wonder has this race been the plan. 20/1 seems a nice bit of value for what looks a possibly underexposed progressive horse.

1 Point win 20/1 Sporting/Paddy/888/32

This horse was backed into 14/1 at the off, and traveled really well to lead a furlong out but faded in the last 1/2 furlong to finish 4th. He ran well and probably has a race like this in him soon enough.

3:05 Curragh

The ground is currently good around there and if it stays that way the current 7/1 available about Sole Power is going to look very big come race time. There is a chance that it will lash rain before the race and if it gets to soft he would be pulled out anyway so it seems a safe enough bet to me. He has been in very good form this year despite not winning as much as in previous years. A repeat of any of his Group 1 placed efforts will suffice here. He just won’t go off at 7/1. Pearl Secret was somewhat tempting at 25/1 but not anymore at the prices. The other one I’m interested in here is Take Cover a the current prices but if Sole Power runs here he is the value

2 Points win 7/1 Boyles/Power/Betfair/Stan

What a horse  he is won with the ground against him, thank god they left him in after that rain. a Superstar… The other Horse mentioned Take Cover also ran a super race to be 3rd..

4:50 Curragh St Leger

Order of St George could well have a fair bit in hand here but I’m pretty sure that the price about last year’s winner Brown Panther is wrong.  He has only run twice this year but stormed to a very impressive win at Meyden and then went down by ½ length to Snow Sky at York. I think these bits of form along with his win in this last year are the best on offer and given his flexibility regarding ground he looks a great bet at the 7/1 on offer at the moment with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. He looks about a 4/1 shot to me and that discrepancy can’t be ignored.

2 Points win 7/1 Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

Brown Panther looks in trouble there after breaking down very sad to see. Order of St George had the fair bit in hand i spoke about and won like a very good horse. 

5:55 Curragh

Judging by his beating of Outspoken and Bottany Bay and there subsequent suns in the Melrose at York, Archangel Raphael should stand a great chance here on these terms. He was poor enough in a Group 1 in France but there is a world of difference between that Group 1 and this albeit very good handicap.  He is the highest rated in the field and will be carrying only 9:00 with his good claimer allowance. He should be involved at the business end at what looks a big price of 12/1. I’m also going to go with one at the other end of the spectrum here in Vastonea who was pretty shocking last time out but has run big races here before and with a better draw here I wouldn’t be surprised if he got involved at a huge price.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally Archangel Raphael

1 Point win 33/1 Generally Vastonea

The less said about those selections the better. I did notice Vastonea staying on a bit a the end and hopefully a pot to be won at a decent price.

4 Selections in total for Today ranging from 20/1 to 28/1

Chester 2:15

I said the last time I selected him that I would take an interest in Jacks Revenge over a longer trip and he is out again at Chester tomorrow over 8 furlongs. He has a decent enough record with a bit of cut in the ground and this race should suit him. He is unfortunately drawn wide but as a hold up horse he would need luck anyway so it’s not the end of the world.  He is down to a decent mark now and this is a weaker race than a few he has gone for lately. 20/1 with Paddy Power looks value as is 18/1 with Stan James.

1 Point win 20/1 18/1 Stan

Ran a great race to be 2nd and the softer ground and longer trip suited him as i’d hoped. Another Crossbar hit..

Doncaster 2:35

This is a tough looking race with last week’s selection B Fifty Two heading the betting. It’s pretty clear we got the value last week and I wouldn’t be having any horse in this type of race at 6-7/1. Robot Boy stands out a bit here at a big price. He has had a couple of real eye-catching runs this year over 5 furlongs and is adaptable in terms of ground. His 8^th in the Group 1 Kings Stand looks particularly good on another watch. He was poorer in his last two runs but that can happen over this trip and I’d prefer to look at his overall profile. He has also gone down another pound or two here and at 28/1 with 5 places he looks the best value on offer.

1 Point EW 28/1 5 Places SKY 25/1 5 Places Lads/Coral

Ran Well but faded in the last furlong

Doncaster 2:35

I liked to look of Naadirr when I looked at this race yesterday evening but I wasn’t happy with the price. He has drifted out to a nice 22/1 this morning and I think he is a possibly unexposed horse who could have a bit more to give at this level and over this trip. His last run back after a break has worked out well and his very impressive seasonal opening beating of Astaire has also worked out well. I think he is underrated here and should be value at 22/1. Limato could win this hard held and I’m surprised he’s not a shorter price given his form but I’d prefer to go for the long priced option in this type of race.

1 Point win 22/1 Generally

Eye-catching run from Naadir in 4th, he traveled really well through, but unfortunately as i mentioned in the tip above Limato could win Hard Held and did. Somewhat peeved i didn’t follow up with a bet. Still were on the right track selection and Value wise.

LeopardsTown 5:45

With Gleneagles gone now I’m getting interested in Highland Reel at a huge price in the w/o Golden Horn Market.  I think he is a progressive horse and judging by his 2^nd in the French Derby this could well be his trip. I’m not overly impressed with Free Eagle so I’m wanting to take him on and 16/1 is too big .

1 Point win 16/1 Higland Reel  w/o Golden horn 365/Ladbrokes

We certainly found the value here as he ran well and went of at 16/1, so getting that without the winner was decent value. This was a top class race.

Great run from the outsider of the field here. His lack of speed told in the end after travelling best of all into the last furlong , but 3rd at 33/1. 

Chester 3:15

Majestic Myles has on the face of it been disappointing on his last 2 starts after a long layoff, but I think he has improved with each race and now arrives here on a very good mark drawn in stall 1 on a course he has a great record in. When he runs well he leads from the front and he really couldn’t have a better shot at it here. I think the 20/1 might be a bit of value here and we may get a good run for our money.

1 Point win 20/1 tote/boyles/fred/lads/betf

Got to the front but faded in the last furlong. Id be interested to see him witha  good forceful jockey next time out.

Saturday was a good example of the fine line between +50 points and -10. in the space of 10 minutes we had Suzi’s Connoisseur getting bullied out of it (which looks a flaw in that horse as he did the same the previous run) when looking all over the winner and then B Fifty Two just failing to get up with a great run at a huge price in the very next race.

Pearl Secret was a big disappointment and with the 3yo domination Cotai Glory is going to be difficult to beat today, but a hoped for price mistake hasn’t materialized here.

Hopefully there will be some value at the Doncaster meeting . Today i was looking at Money Team and Ancient Cross but i’d have been hoping for a bigger price on both and in that type of race i’m not sure they are much value at the current odds.