• 100/1 Real Longshots
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LongshotValue

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Monday Connacht National

08 Monday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Roscommon 8:30

This looks a very nice race for a Monday and the minute I looked at it the 2 Gigginstown runners stood out a mile at the prices. Bishop’s Road has some very good form and is still very unexposed. He was poor enough last time but it was due to poor jumping from the start and if he can get that together here he should go close. The future form of some of his runs this year couldn’t have worked out any better. I’m also going for and old favourite in Rogue Angel who should be at home on decent ground and over this trip off this mark with a very good 5lbs claimer on today. He travelled well last time out but just didn’t stay having tried to go outside all the way and that didn’t work out. 25/1 looks a huge price

2 Points win Bishops Road 12/1 365/Stanjames

1 Point EW Rogue Angel 25/1 Generally

Weekend Fire

07 Sunday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 2 Comments

joker-burning-money

Not a good weekend, luckily we had a result on Friday

Sunday Long Shot

06 Saturday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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 4:05 Goodwood

Chiberta King is one I had tracked after a decent run for me last time out, when obviously needing a step up in trip. If he improves for the run and with a good 5lbs claimer on today over the right trip he won’t be far away. I think 14/1 looks value.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Perth 4:25

Bar De Ligne has been poor since he moved stable but this stable is well capable of getting him back to his best with a target in mind, and given his good course record around here, I think there is a better than 33/1 chance that he may be back on his game today. He has some very decent form last year and any kind of recovery here will put him ring in the firing line if this mark with a 7lbs claimer on and a very light weight. At the prices he is worth the risk. We should know where we stand before the race because if he is to improve today there will surely be a few quid for him at these prices.

1 Point win 33/1 Generally

100/1 Winner Qualify

06 Saturday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 4 Comments

My luck is really in this year. Fantastic ride here and Qualify repaid my faith in her in no uncertain terms. Were nearing the ridiculous 300pt barrier for the year and were now at over 100% roi which is just silly and cant continue..

O'Donoghue riding Qualify leads the field to victory in The Investec Oaks races during the Investec Ladies Day at Epsom Racecourse on June 5, 2015 in Epsom, England.

Long Shot Saturday

05 Friday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:45 Epson

Predictably enough I’m going for the outsider of the field here, with just enough zeros in his form to make it interesting. Free Zone basically hasn’t done a tap in long time, but amid all the last places over the last 2 years he has run well a few times, like the good 2nd at York at the end of last year. I never mind a few lasts with sprinters as these race can get away from you very quickly and there isn’t any point after that. He won’t mind the slightly softer ground here and if he can get away he should be able to perform of this mark. At 40/1 he’s worth the risk, especially with this trainer as he is a sprint specialist and surly would have a plan for this one. I’m also going for another at the end of the market in Smoothtalkingrascal. He was second in this 2 years ago and course form means a lot here. He has plummeted down the weights of late after a series of poor runs, but I’ve seen a bit to like in his last 2 runs and if the new stable have any sense they will have been getting him ready for today. His draw may not be ideal, but a big step up in form here wouldn’t be a huge surprise he is 20lbs below his highest mark and still only a 5yo. 33/1 is well worth a risk

1 Point EW 40/1 Free Zone  5 Places Ladbrokes

1 Point EW 33/1 Smoothtalkingrascal 5 Places Bet365

4:30 Epson Derby

I put up Giovanni Canaletto for this last weekend at 16/1 and I wouldn’t be swapping that now given he is only 8/1. I also think that Epicuris is probably a bit overlooked here at a decent price. He was a very good unbeaten 2yo in France winning a Group 1 at the end of last year. He was poor enough on his reappearance but I just don’t think he would be coming here without a bit of a chance from this trainer. His 2yo for is really top drawer and if it does get in any way softer tomorrow that certainly won’t bother him. 18/1 with Paddy Power is too big to ignore.

1 Point win 18/1 Paddy Power

Epson 5:50

Extrasolar has always taken a few runs to get going and despite being poor so far this year he is now of a mark he can win off. He has been slowly away the last 2 times so if he can get away this time he should be getting near fit enough to do himself justice at a decent looking 25/1. He looks worth a gamble at that price.

1 Point win 25/1 Various

Epson 5:15

Going for last minute change of heart here. I has a look at Mirsalle in this last night and decided against it, but on a second look he is down to a very nice mark and won around here on his first run of the season 2 years ago. He had 1 very good run last year when 2nd to Gatewood on level weights and today of 89 with a 3lbs claimer on he may be in with a shout at 40/1

1 Point EW 40/1 Betfair/Tote/Sporting/Betfair

Oaks Friday

04 Thursday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 4 Comments

Epson 2:35

Dance and Dance is the one that interests me here. He has a good record around here with 1 win and 2 other good runs out of 3 goes. He is stepping up in trip which looks an advantage and with a good 7lbs claimer on today hell be carrying a very light weight which could wake him up. 16/1 is perhaps not as big as I would have liked but still decent value.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Epson Oaks 4:30

I don’t think there is a lot between Legatissimo, Jack Naylor and Together Forever going on their form together so far but I think this trip is sure to suit Together Forever more than those 2 and she certainly looks the value at these prices. She was a standout in the trails and give the certain improvement from then after a run I think the 10/1 looks value. I also cant resist a tiny bet on Qualify I think she has improved in her last 2 runs and was eye-catching enough last time out in the irish 1000. If she isn’t a pacemaker here it isn’t out of the question that she places at 100/1.

1 Point win 10/1 Together Forever  Coral / Will Hill

½ Point EW Qualify 100/1 Bet365 / Paddy

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Wednesday Longshot

02 Tuesday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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8:10 Ripon Wednesday

Chilworth Icon was a pick of mine on Saturday at a huge price and after he missed the start he really looked improved on his other runs this year. He is 3lbs below his last winning mark and 10lbs below a very good run in the Portland last year. I don’t think well be waiting long for a win, but I’m not going to go mad with stakes here as it’s a bit close to his last run and id be suspicious he may have another target. That said I won’t be missing the 20/1 Available

1 Point EW 20/1 365/PP/Lads

Derby Ante-post

01 Monday Jun 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

I’ve been waiting to see what the stable did as regards Gleneagles and as he’s not running now I’m happy to have a bet NRNB on Giovanni Canaletto. I thought he looked good on his seasonal reappearance and with the given improvement as per usual from that stable 16/1 looks a very decent price. The French Derby yesterday was a perfect example of this with a very good 2nd, and I think it’s significant that they haven’t supplemented anything here.

1 Point win 16/1 Paddy Power NRNB

Long Shot Saturday

30 Saturday May 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 3 Comments

Poor enough days racing today with nothing really standing out so I’ll go with a couple of longshots for min bets.

York 2:55

It takes a bit of a leap of faith to think that Chilworth Icon might just have a small shout here but at 40/1 not much indication is needed. He is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on and proved last year that 5 furlong’s was probably his best trip with a win at Sandown of a higher mark. He also ran well in the Portland after and although has been very poor this year it was the same last year until his win. At the price he looks a bit of value to like his very light weight here and get into the race and I’ll go for a min bet.

½ Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 places

Newmarket 5:40

Sir Jack Layden was a decent 2yo who has struggled of too high a mark since but despite finishing well down the field from an outside draw last time out at york, I saw a little hope in that run and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to start to show a bit of form of a much reduced mark here. He is worth a min bet at 50/1 just in case

½ Point EW 50/1 Betfair Sportsbook

4:30 Newmarket

Mukmal started to look like he might be about to strike last time out here and in this weaker race getting the 3yo allowance he might just be the value getting load of weight from everything. He has shown enough a few times that a mark of 90 should be doable and I thought he would be shorter than 20/1. I’m also going to have a min bet on Hoof It at a big price , he should have needed his first run and if he improves from that he can get involved of this mark

1 Point win 20/1 Mukmal Generally

½ Point win 25/1 Hoof It Generally

Monday Longshot

25 Monday May 2015

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

3:55 Redcar

I’m going to go with the outsider of the field here Rebellious Guest. He wasn’t in the race at all last time out at Ascot but is now of a very low mark in comparison to the AW mark. In fairness it’s hard to find any reason to believe that he can transfer that form here but I’ll take the risk at 20/1. Even on the all-weather he is an in and out performer so a bit of sudden improvement today wouldn’t be out of character.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

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