Epson 3:55

I’ll be keeping stakes small during the flat season this year but it’s hard to resist a small bet on Sennockian Star in this race. He won this race last year of only 1 lb lower and went on to win again later on last year of another 4lbs higher. We can safely ignore his last bad run as he has multiple times in the past ran poorly before a big improvement. 12/1 is value.

½ Point win 12/1 Generally

Epson 2:10

Swiss Cross has never run a bad race here and off his lowest mark for a long time he’s bound to pop up soon enough so why not here at a half decent 11/1. He is drawn reasonably as well, and as with a lot of these sprints he will need a bit of luck on his side.

½ Point win 11/1 Betvictor & Will Hill

Ayr 3:45 Scottish Grand National

Benbens looks the value in this field. He has a couple of runs this year of this mark that would put him right in there with a shout here.  He only got half way at Cheltenham so that shouldn’t have an effect as it might on a lot of these. He is in here of a very light weight with a 7lbs claimer and 10 st to start with. His place chances look very strong to me as well so 33/1 EW with 5 places looks great value

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

Cape Tribulations good 2nd in the Rowland Meyrick earlier this year showed enough to make it possible he might still be capable of a big show this year.  He has been poor lately but I’m hopeful that decent ground and a step up in trip might be just the thing to get him going. He is off a workable mark and a nice light weight which can only help here.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

Newbury 3:25

I’m going to go with a couple of big price min bet darts here. Excellent Guest has a decent record fresh and can win of this mark. Ascot may be his best course but at 60 on Betfair he is value here. Pearl Ice is a gut feeling selection. He is on a workable mark and showed me something last time out after a year off. He is 65

½ Point win Excellent Guest 60 Betfair

½ Point win Pearl Ice 65 Betfair

Ayr 2:30

It’s been a long time since Cinders & Ashes was in top form but he gave an indication that he isn’t totally gone at the game when 3^rd a few runs ago. He was carried out last time and with a very quiet season and the stable beginning to show tiny bits of form maybe now is the time for him to take advantage of his low mark. He’s worth the risk at 16/1

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Ayr 3:05

It’s been a while since Conquisto has got what he’s needed good ground. He has run ok a few times this year over hurdles on soft ground but he is a much better chaser on his day and of a mark of 143 with a 7lbs claimer on here he could well be right in with a shout here. He has also won around here before albeit over a shorter trip.

I think it’s significant that he has a claimer on, is running in his first chase in a while, and has his ground. 14/1 looks value

2 Points win 14/1 Stan/Lads/Hills

Grand National

I’m going to start with a couple of very big outsiders that might be able to get involved here having had light seasons and shown some potential in the past.  I may add another one tomorrow.

Owega Star has shown a fair bit of potential this year and has looked at home of good ground a few times. He was a very good 5^th in the Paddy Power and if he can build on that he might just stand a chance here at 100/1.

Super Duty has had very little racing the last couple of years but looked a potential very good stayer and a national prospect when he was just held in the Kim Muir 2 years ago of 1lb higher than this mark. He didn’t do much on his reappearance but if this trainer can improve him and this was the plan he has enough class and ability to stand a real chance here at 80/1

The Rainbow Hunter has been unlucky a few times in this race having been brought down both times but he has shown a nice bit of ability, particularly when winning the Sky Bet Chase last year. I’m hoping he has been set out for this all year and he is another at a huge price of 80/1

I’ve been expecting the price on Chance du Roy to come down given his good record here but since he has in fact gone out to 50/1 I can’t see any reason not to have an EW bet at what looks double the price he should be. He can perform of this mark over these fences on this ground what more could anyone ask for.

1 Point EW Chance du Roy 50/1 Various 5 places

1 Point EW Owega Star 100/1 BetVictor 6 places

1 Point EW Super Duty 80/1 BetVictor 6 places

1 Point EW The Rainbow Hunter 80/1 Bet365 5 places

Aintree 5:10

Ballyglasheen could well be suited to this race and although its more of a gut feeling selection I’m happy to take a flyer at 50/1. He had a very good win against my favourite horse last year, and with the jockeys 5lbs claim he is on around the same mark.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James

Aintree 3:25

Bobowen should be suited by this race judging by his summer plate win on good ground 2 years ago. He hasn’t had much racing since but hopefully he will be up for this after a relatively poor seasonal opener. Some of my old favourites are in this race but all appear to be a bit short for value.

1 Point win 16/1 VC/Paddy

Aintree 4:05

This seems an impossible race but Rathlin has always been a better horse on good ground and he will get that here finally tomorrow. He has plenty of good ground form that makes his mark of 147 seem workable.  He has been steadily improving this year and if he can cope with these fences, and run from the front he may well have a shot at a huge looking 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Bet365

3:25 Aintree

Feck it heart ruling head, but I can’t resist Cue Card in this tomorrow. I can’t think of a reason to back anything else as the market look all wrong to me. 2m4f on good ground is possibly a bit short around here for him but I want to be on if he wins and 15/2 is worthwhile. I actually think this race could suit Sire De Grugy as well and he also looks value but I’ll stick with Cue Card.

2 Points win 15/2 SJ/Coral

Aintree 4:40

This looks a difficult race and unfortunately Pricewise has scuppered my value of my original value selection Bellenos. It might be a blessing in disguise though and Baby Mix appeals to me even after a 474 day layoff. He has plenty in his form that suggests that 135 underestimates his ability, particularly a very good Kempton success on good ground. To be honest I was kind of hoping for a bit of a bigger price but 20/1 on Betfair will have to suffice.

2 Points win 21 Betfair

Aintree 2:15

The fav here looks very strong but I get the feeling that the outsider of the field Winner Massagot could get involved here at a huge price. He was poor enough in his first 2 starts but on good ground last time was well backed and won with loads in hand. A 4yo not going to Cheltenham can only be an advantage and he could well stand a good chance of placing here if he can improve another bit. 40/1 is just a bit too big to ignore for EW value

1 Point EW 40/1 Paddy Power/BetV

Aintree 4:05

The form of Quinz last run has worked out pretty well and he was always difficult to get right, but he was generally a good ground flat track specialist and if he can improve for his seasonal reappearance he may well look value here at 50/1. I see plenty of horses shorter that I would give less of a chance to .

1 Point EW 50/1 4 places Various

Fairyhouse 4:55

Dalasiri is one I selected last time out at a big price at Leopardstown and he ran well looking to get outpaced on good ground. These conditions today should suit him better and he has won at this time of the year before. He ran really well on the flat last year, winning a maiden dead heating with a 90 rated AOB colt. If he can transfer that improvement over hurdles and will be better with the soft ground his huge price is going to look massive value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Irish National 5:00 Fairyhouse

Tammys Hill looks reasonably treated here on 135 and he has always looks a class act in Hunter Chases. This looks a poor national and if this has been the plan all year for his he shouldn’t be far away. 25/1 looks value.

Rule the World hasn’t set the world on fire with his novice chases this year but he is a top class animal and although I would prefer better ground for him he has won plenty of times of heavy in the  past . He is a though stayer over hurdles and is possibly the 1 horse in this race that could improve considerably here.

Daring Article looks to have been readied for this all year after a poor go at it last year but he has a few very decent handicap performances in his armoury and could well be a bit of a forgotten horse here at a huge price.

1 Point win Tammys Hill 25/1 Paddy Power

1 Point Win Rule the World 44 Betfair

1 Point win Daring Article 50 Betfair

Fairyhouse 3:50

This trip and ground are much more suited to Outlander than the speedy Shaneshill and he looks great value at 5/1 . My guess he will go off shorter .

2 points win 5/1 stanjames/hills

Fairyhouse  4:20

The fav here is a risky proposition at those odds and I’d prefer Valseur Lido to get back to top form here in today’s conditions.. I was all ready to tip The Tullow Tank but price wise has scuppered the value there ..

2 points win 9/2 boyles/ladbrokes