3:45 Haydock

Frontier Spirit was my pick for this race last year and he ran a great race of higher mark. He isn’t getting any younger but i had decided that over 20/1 would be of interest. I probably won’t bother with ew at only 3 places and its a min bet as he is 11 now..

½ point win 28/1 generally

3:10 Haydock

Hada Men is another min bet for me in this race. He is unexposed over fences and is on a decent mark comparative to his hurdles mark. He has had little racing this year which will be an advantage here.. 20/1 looks a bit of value.

½ point win 20/1 generally

2:25 Musselburgh.

In his last flat race Buthelezi was only a length of Hidden Gold trying to give him 9 lbs here in September. That hoses probably a 100 rated animal now and is vying for favouritism in the big stayers race in Lingfield today at odd of 5/2. Buthelezi was also running well until falling in a good 2m chase here again this winter. He looks to me as if he is coming nicely back to form and given his current mark of 88 and his peak rating of over 100 he is dangerous to discard here at a huge looking 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally.

Doncaster 2:35

Jack Dexter should be favourite for this in my view. He has won and been 3^rd in this with a 5lbs penalty last year and has plenty of very decent form on better ground despite his preference for softer. 13/2 with Stan James is too big to ignore.

1 Point win 13/2 Stan James

Doncaster 3:10

I’m going to go with small win bets in these big field handicaps for most of the flat season, and in this I’m going with a couple of outsiders. Boots & Spurs showed well a few times in a light campaign last year  and with some decent form fresh he looks worth a small bet at 36 in Betfair. In addition im pretty sure that Burano has a decent run in one of these this year and after a pipe opener lately on the AW he may well outrun his price here.

½ Point win Boots & Spurs 36 Betfair

½ Point win Burano 25/1 Generally

Doncaster 3:45

Bertiewhittle has been a popular bet for a couple of years now without winning but generally running well. He is a forgotton horse today and looks as if the step up in trip will probably suit him. He is down to a mark he is well proven off in these big field handicaps and at 60 on Betfair with a decent record fresh I won’t be missing that. I’m also going with a min bet on Don’t Call me, who has run enough decent races of this and higher mark to justify a small bet at 80 no Betfair.

1 Point win Bertiewhittle 60 Betfair

½ Point win Don’t Call me 80 Betfair

Meyden 2:30

I’m afraid I can’t resist 8/1 about Sole Power here. This race isn’t as good as last year and the fav look overrated. He has run well here in the past, not as bad as Is generally thought and a repeat of last year’s run may get him very close here.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

2:15 Kelso

Old Favourite Knockara Beau has won a very similar chase to this over this course and distance of a very similar layoff 18 months ago, and has done plenty in the meantime to suggest that he can still perform of this mark albeit being lightly raced. There is some possibility that this might be a last throw at the dice but at 16/1 he is well worth the risk.

1 Point win 16/1 Boylesports 14/1 generally

3:10 Newbury

Imperial Circus has had a bit of a break since a couple of under par runs at the end of last year and is down to a mark which he should be able to get competitive off. He has a decent record fresh as well so 12/1 with Paddy Power does look at bit of value here. He should be suited by decent ground and this trip.

1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power / Stan James

2:35 Newbury

The form of a couple of Hannah’s Princess’s races really couldn’t have worked out a better and she looks to be suited by this step up in trip judging by her last run. She probably should be favourite here as her mark looks somewhat lenient. 10/1 looks a small bit of value.

1 Point win 10/1 William Hill

Cheltenham Report 2015

Day 1 started well with Gods Own getting 2^nd at 50/1 and carried on in that vein with Indian Castle 4^th at 25/1. My ante post bet on Jezki never really looked like paying off as Faugheen really won well and rolled in a new era. I had a multiple online with Douvan, UDS and Annie Power, and rather guiltily cashed out on Bet365 before Annie’s Race as when I looked at the bet it turned out I was really just putting a couple of hundred on her which is something I wouldn’t normally do.  I also cashed out my day 1 yankee after the 2 big placers as I couldn’t believe that a 1euro EW yankee was worth €345 after 2 placers and I had the backup of a small accum just in case all 4 placed anyway. (more on this later as I think the option of having a small accum in case of a big payout and the cash out option will suit me in the future).The day ended  with my brother unbelievably  picking the last 3 winners (we share on course winnings to level out variance J),he also landed a 5 horse accum and was Annie Power away from multiple 5 horse and 1 6 horse accum, still it was a huge win in the context of our small stakes

Day 2 Started ok with Adriana des motts just getting run out of the places on the line, but my bet of the meeting Duke of Lucca disappointed, as did Sprinter Sacre. I tend to fall into the trap of betting the older generation and most certainly did here. The 2 Big priced ones in the Coral ran well and will be collecting soon enough I’d imagine. We were on Don Poli as after being against him all along I had a look at the form in the morning and agreed with my brother that he couldn’t be beat.  My brother kicked in with another big price placer

Day 3 Vautour was my first Ante post bet unfortunately in the Arkle but I had bet on him here and it was one of the best performances I’ve ever seen here which goes nicely with his stunning supreme win last year. He’s the best horse in training in my view and I can’t wait for him to run again. The rest of the day never really got off the ground which was disappointing as I was fairly confident with some of the decent priced ones in the handicaps, and was very confident that Zarkandar would win, unfortunately the mistake 2 from home killed his winning chance and we’ll never know. I learned a lesson I should have known by now about changing your mind in the Ryanair (less said about that the better)

Day 4 I took the 4/1 about Peace & Co on offer as I felt he was as short a fav really as some of the Mullins ones  earlier on this week and the rain wouldn’t be any hindrance to him, he won but probably not as easily as I expected. Then came Wicklow Brave ‘s race a horse I have been banging on about for his last 3 runs. He was the easiest winner of the week and with 2 bets at 33/1 he ensured a good Cheltenham. Again I was caught up in the old ones and Bobs Worth ran poorly. My confidence that Conegree would have won the RSA wasn’t unfounded and it was a stunning win and a major changing of the guard. My brother picked the last 2 winners again today and we had agreed on Next Sensation. That last race has been a huge one for us as we’ve had the winner at a big price in 5 of the last 9 years which we started going. That landed me a nice payout on a Yankee and I got a nice surprise and I forgot I placed an even better one the night before with the 3 winners in it for a nice shock when I got back and checked my balance. When you luck is in your luck is in. Apart from luckbox accums etc and Wicklow Brave I was somewhat carried for the 4 days on my brother’s excellent  form, and there is a lot to be said for splitting betting like that at a minefield like Cheltenham.

With 51.5 Points invested in the site tips including ante-post there was a profit of 78.5 points in total which is probably my best Cheltenham ever and really the only lesson is to give up on Ante Post bets in the Championship races as most prices will be bettered on the day.

4:05 Carlisle

A quick scan through Fill the Power’s current form reveals he has only been beaten lately by horses than have won or run well very soon afterwards.  The likes of Broadway Buffalo, Millborogh, Toby Lerone  etc. He is down to a nice mark here with a 3lbs claimer on and really shouldn’t be far away. 7/1 2^nd outsider of the field is too big to ignore.

2 Points win 7/1 Generally

Cheltenham report to follow soon.

Previously Advised Ante-Post Running Today

Gold Cup

Bobs Worth looked a world beater last year but didn’t run up to expectations this year, more than likely the ground played a part. I just don’t fancy anything else in the race at the moment and if he can recover his best form (which he will be given a great chance to do with very little runs this year), i think he will win. Taking that into consideration, the current best price of 11/1 looks huge and I’d love to be holding that docket when he lines up in March.

2 Points win 11/1 Various

I think he has a great chance today and i dont mind the rain at all for him he won this in soft ground 2 years ago and he struggles wot keep up on real good ground. Im going to add another point at a silly price of 18/1

1 Point win 18/1 Sporting/888/VCBET

County Hurdle

Wicklow Brave was backed heavily last time out and never got a run at all in the Betfair hurdle having missed the start. I think he is well ahead of the handicapper. He ran an eye-catching race last year in the Supreme and has been poor enough this year, but could well come alive again back here in similar conditions. He will have a light weight and once he gets in hell be involved in the finish. I’m going to gamble on standard anti-post, as I cant resist the 33/1 Available.

1 Point win 33/1 Various

I’m adding another 1pt EW on Wicklow Brave for the County as I was waiting for 33/1 NRNB and that is available with Betfred and totesport

1 Pt EW 33/1 NRNB Betfred Totesport

4:00 Hunter Chase

I was all over Paint the Clouds in this but with the rain now that may not suit him. I think the 10/1 about Salsify looks huge and cant be ignored. He was only o first time out this year but thats the same every year for him. He could be a class ahead of these still and has won one of these on Soft Already. I think he is a 5/1 shot to 10s is massive.

2 Points win 10/1 Generally

1:30 Triumph

I liked Peace and Co from the start in this and at the current 4/1 and the rain which can only help his cause. Ill have to have a bet.

2 Points win 4/1 William Hill

5:15 Grand Annual

I’m running out of time before having to walk down in the rain. Next Sensation stands out here from last years race at a very big looking 16/1. My feeling is he can be conserved a bit here and if he can repeat last year run he will be very close.

1 Point EW 16/1

4:00

This looks an unbelievably tough race but I’m going to go with Champion Court of his current winnable mark. He has been poor enough this year apart from over this course and distance when he was a good 7^th in the paddy power of a much higher mark. Running that race again will put him in the places at least here and give him a small shot of a win at decent looking odds of 25/1 with 5 places.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Sky/365

3:20 World Hurdle

I’ve convinced myself that I was blind all along and Zarkandar should win this. His form is easily the best of these and he has been kept for this for a while. He loves the ground is a proven stayer now and I think that the book is wrong in this today with too many once with little chance at far too short odds. The 6/1 available now looks 2 points too big.

2 Points win 13/2 Coral

2:05

Trustan Times was 4^th in this last year in a race that just couldn’t have worked out any better form wise. He is off 2 lbs lower this year and although he was poor enough in the Haydock Grand National Trial last month , he has in the past run well after hard races like that. He looks the value in the field. 22/1 with 5 places is great value given his consistence in placing at least.

1 Point EW 22/1 5 places Bet365

4:40

Really tough race as would be expected, but I’m going to go with Ericht here at a huge price. I think he will be suited by the step up in trip and his 3^rd here in October really does read well given the 2 ahead of him then. The jockey on board for this Amateur race has a very decent record and I can see him getting into the first 5 here off his current mark. 40/1 with 5 places looks big.

1 Point EW 5 places Coral 40/1

2:40 Ryanair Chase

This is the tightest race of the festival and I can’t make any decisions about the horses near the top of the market. But I’m going to go with a couple of Longshots for min bets. Wishful Thinking will either win or be last here so I’ll have a small min bet just in case at 33/1 He is in great form this year. Also some of Ballycaseys form really reads well on his good days and if he was to be up for it here he will travel well and might have a chance at this trip. EW value in this race is very poor.

½ Point win both 33/1 Stan James & others

A nice bit of profit today with 50/1 Gods Own 2nd and 25/1 shot Indian Castle also placed.

4:40 Fred Winter

This race is a bit of a minefield but in struggling to come up with anything I noticed Sebastian Beach at a big price. He was a good 3rd behind Beltor and one of the favourites here in Arabian Revolution. He then won really well of good ground before disappointing when backed heavily on soft ground. If the good ground can bring out the best in him he may well be able to outrun his big price here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Stan James / Sky Bet

2:40 Coral Cup

Maybe I’ve really lost the plot here but for some reason I can’t get past Rolling Star at a huge price in this. He showed a lot of promise as a 4yo, and actually went of favourite on Our Conors triumph and ran ok. He has been very lightly raced since and came back lately on soft ground with a poor run. But he still has possibilities of improvement and looks worth a gamble to me at a huge 66/1. Ill probably add another one for this race tomorrow but can’t see anything yet

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places SkyBET

I’m also going for Mijhaar who has disappointed since going over hurdles. He was a very decent flat horse, but in fairness hasn’t had decent ground much over hurdles and has performed better the times he had. This step up in trip will help judging by his other runs and 33/1 looks value.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places Generally

2:05 RSA Chase

Adriana Des Mottes has been a bit of a disappointment on a few occasions, but her 3^rd last time out in a hot Grade 1 at Leopardstown has a solid look about it, especially when she should be well suited by the step up in trip here. She should travel well in this race and with the decent mares allowance and the trip she stands a better chance than her 28/1 odds.

1 Point EW 28/1 Various

Previously Advised running today

Champion Chase

Sprinter Sacres price of 5/2 is near as good a price as you’ll get anyway (the best being 11/4), and no matter what happens between this and then he won’t go of longer than that if he turns up. Barry was very positive on him and given the possible trouble with Sire De Grugy he could go off long odds on if he runs well on his reappearance.

2 Points win 5/2 NRNB Betfair Sportsbook

I Think that was a great return by Sprinter Sacre and with improvement to come the 3/1 NRNB that is available now will look massive on the day with the sun on his back and good ground.

I have 2 pts at 5/2 NRNB already and im going to top up with another 2 here.

2 Pts win 3/1 NRNB Totesport / Betfred

The price on this doesnt look great now but he is still my pick to win this so fingers crossed

Cross Country Chase

This is one of my best races at the festival over the last 10 years or so and having seen the weights out today I think Duke of Lucca could be shorter here. He was a good staying on 4^th last year but has a big weight turnaround with this years form horse Any Currency.  It looks a weaker race this year without  two of last year’s first 3 and I would expect Duke of Lucca to go of favourite here from the same team as last years winner.

2 Points win 8/1 Bet365 NRNB

This is my bet of the festival and he is probably going to go off at 5-6/1 so the value looks good.

Previously Adviced running today

Champion Hurdle

I’ve seen enough Jezki looks better than ever this year so far just going down to hurricane fly on soft around Leopardstown, and for me should be favourite for the Champion Hurdle.  His main opponent from last year isn’t there this year and on good ground he seems to me to be a bit clear of the new one and Faugheen on all known form. 5/1 is great value.

2 Points win 5/1 NRNB Various

This bet looks very decent now that the ground is goind to be good.

5:15 CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices’ Handicap Chase

Looking at last year’s races reminded me of an eye-catching performance from Keltus in the Fred Winter. He absolutely flew up the hill into 4^th and would surely be suited by this step up in trip and the with usual improvement in Paul Nichols horses over fences he should be right there in this. He has 2 good 2nds this year to horses who has gone up the handicap significantly since and really does look a couple of pounds at least well in here. Factor in the Festival form factor and he is an easy pick here. 16/1 with Ladbrokes NRNB is a standout at the moment and I can’t see him going off greater than 8/1.

2 Points EW 16/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

This looks a great price now and he just got in to the bottom of the handicap i can see him going of at 10/1 or less.

2:40 3m 1f Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

I like the look of Indian Castle in this at a big looking price. He was all the rage last year for the Kim Muir and was in the process of a top 4 finish when he nearly fell at the last and ended up 7^th of 1lbs higher. I think he ran an eye-catching race over too short a trip in the Paddy Power here, and if he can travel that well for most of that race he will do well here over a more suitable longer trip. I think his place chance looks very decent and 25/1 with 5 places is worth a bet.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Bet365

4:00 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

I’ll be shouting on Annie Power like most here but last year’s 3^rd L’Unique is clearly too big here at 20/1. She was a fast finishing 3^rd last year and ran 2 good races after including a decisive handicap win. She is 6lbs better off with Polly Peachum who beat here last year and really should be at most the same price as that horse around 10/1.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

2:05 Arkle

A fairly simple pick here as Gods Own is well overpriced here on some very decent form and plenty of experience compared to most of the field. I think his form with the likes of Balder Success and his win at punchestown last year is fairly eye-popping for a 50/1 Shot and that can’t be let go.

1 Point EW 50/1 Stan James 40/1 Elsewhere