Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365  

Leopardstown 2:20

If Marito was still trained by Willie Mullins he would be one of the favourites here. He came back after a year break with a very decent run at Tramore, and has some exceptional form on heavy ground.  There is a 5lbs claimer on today and if he is up to it, he should be able to perform of this mark. This trip is ideal and 22/1 is too big.

1 Point win  22/1 Betvictor and Stan James

3:35 Ascot

Ackertac is one I’ve had my eye on for a while now, as he tumbles down the weight’s towards an doable mark. He has some decent form at Ascot, ran well enough at Cheltenham earlier this year and in all probability this is his best trip. He also has decent form on soft and if he gets his act together today he will look value at 28/1, which is nearly twice the price of anything else in the field.

1 Point EW 28/1 Bet365

2:25 Ascot

One Lucky Lady on the face of it looks well out of this race from out of the handicap, but ran a  great race last year in the Martin Pipe at the festival ,when probably doing  a bit too much in front too soon. If she is to get back into that race she will need to get involved here. She has bits of form that of here mark here which is 5lbs out of the handicap she could well have a chance. Mares can be odd at the best of times but a reappearance of form here after a poor enough chase experience despite winning a novice chase could bode well for her given her big price. She’s worth the risk at a big price

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Haydock 12:20

This is going to be an unmerciful slog and I went looking at the bottom of the weights for  bit of form and found that Who Owns Me loves the mud is sure to stay and after a couple of poor performance’s is down to a winnable mark judging by his old form. He even has a 2^nd 2 starts ago of a much higher mark that proves he not completely out of form. This race is likely to suit and at 20/1 he is worth a small bet.

1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

On Trend was my pick in Unioniste’s race at Sandown a couple of weeks ago at a big price, and he ran really well considering he was out of the handicap. He is effectively 4lbs better off here and really should be suited to the conditions. This is a much weaker race that the Sandown one at 7/1 looks value.

1 Point win 7/1 Ladbrokes

2:40 Kempton

This looks a poor enough renewal and the minute I saw the race Dell Arca sprung to mind. He was second last year in about as deep a handicap hurdle as you’re likely to find in the Betfair Hurdle on heavy ground and gave the impression that he would like further. He proved that with a good 5^th at the festival and although he is higher in the weights here, he looks to have a nice racing weight with 11:02. I think 10/1 is great value and although he has possibly been a bit of a disappointment over fences, he has been racing against top class opposition.

2 Points win 10/1 Generally

3:35 Warwick

I’m going against all possible sense here, but I’m drawn to Peckhamecho here at a decent price. He has only jumped fences 3 times, and those in 2012, but he is on a good mark in comparison to his hurdle mark and he has a bit of class which if he can convert to fences he is very unexposed. He hasn’t tried this kind of trip either but he did have a decent win at Aintree this year on his first try at over 3 miles over hurdles. It was almost a case of rulling out everything else as no value and ending up here.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Kempton 3:15

Howards Legacy seems a decent price in this race. He has been good this year apart from last time when an early mistake put paid to his chances. He is well capable of this mark as he has proven in the past, and has form on this type of ground. Add in the old faithfull (Saturday, Heavy Ground, V Williams) and we have value here at 12/1

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

4:00 Punchestown

Turban isn’t the choice on Ruby here but he is probably the best horse in the race, is in here on very good terms getting weight from most of the others and is an easy selection at a too big looking 8/1. He fell early last week over fences, and is probably on a mission to get back confidence here but any of his hurdles form over the last year or two could well be good enough to win on these terms.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

2:50 Wetherby

Harry Hunt has caught my eye here of what looks a very good mark. He is a c&d winner a few years ago and although he hasn’t been that great for a while, he showed up well enough last time before getting tired. The step down in trip and slightly better ground may well put him in here with a decent shout at a good price. 12/1 looks worth the risk in this race.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Wincanton 3:15

I think the market may have got it wrong here with the Nichols pair. The 7lbs claimer is on Rebel Rebellion more than likely to take 7lbs of his top weight rather than him being 2^nd choice here. He ran a great race last time out in the Grand Sefton and is effectively 8lbs better off here.  He should like the conditions and trip etc and to be honest seem the most likely winner to me. 6/1 looks a huge price in this race. The favourite Black River finally got it going last time out in a  weak enough novice handicap and he seems way to short of his new mark.

2 Points win 6/1 generally.

Sandown 3:00

If in doubt on a Saturday and the ground is soft, it’s so tempting to go for a Venetia Williams horse blindly. I’ve looked a Leviathan a couple of times for this race and as his price has gone out now to 22/1 I’m getting more and more interested.  He was really poor last time here, but had run twice  in 3 weeks on soft ground and I’m hoping that had taken its toll.  If he can get back to his previous form of that win at Ascot also on soft ground he won’t be out of the equation here as he won well there and is only a manageable 5lbs higher here.  I’ll go for a min bet as if it wins and I didn’t put him up the remote would be lodged in the middle of the screen.

½ Point win 22/1 Generally

Wincanton 2:40

Oscar Prarie is hard enough to catch on the  right day , but this time last year of around this mark with a claimer on he won a similar race in similar conditions, and if he needed his seasonal opener and can get back to a bit of form here he can get competitive at a big looking 20/1

½  Point win 20/1 Bet365 & Will-Hill

Sandown 3:35

I’m not a huge fan of pick one out of the weights here but On Trend has won a similar race to this here on the same ground as today of a higher mark that the one he runs of here. I’d imagine he needed his rather poor seasonal introduction and given his previous over the C&D that today may have been the plan. 10 stone will be a nice weight to slog around here today and at 20/1 he is worth the risk

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365 / Lads

Big Day yesterday with 2 winners in Rock On Ruby and Ruacana, along with 20/1 shot Bothy Placed.

3:10 Ayr

This looks a decent race for relatively small money , but Saphir River is going to win at some stage of around this mark and after a couple of decent looking runs this season he may well be ready to do himself justice here at a decent looking price. He ran as well as could be expected at Cheltenham after losing his place after a mistake, and ran well at Aintree the time before. The Favourite could well be a step ahead of the handicapper here bit I’d prefer the 10/1 on offer about my selection to come back to form.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Ffos Las 2:50

This race will be a slog of the highest order and the bottom weight here Fishing Bridge has stone lighter than anything else to carry here. He is also of a career low mark and the trainer like to have winners here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit too much in his favour here today even though he is the outsider of the field. He is a course winner and was backed in a novice handicap chase here last time, so may well be in form at home.

1 Point win 16/1 Bet365

I’ve Added a couple more Cheltenham Antepost Bets

https://longshotvalue.com/cheltenham-festival-2015/

Cheltenham 12:45

Saint Are looks to be in great form at the moment judging by this 2 runs this year and given his good 3^rd in a stronger race here earlier this year of 1lb higher he really should be close here.  He followed that up with another 3^rd in the Becher Chase and a repeat of either of those runs in this weaker race should be enough.  I had thought that anything above 7/1 would be of interest here so the current 9/1 with bet365 is plenty to have a bet.

2 Points win 9/1 Bet365

Cheltenham 3:05

I was sure Rock on Ruby would start favourite for this race, and hopefully the rains don’t arrive but even though he has weight to give to a couple of promising horses he looks great value at 3/1 over his ideal trip and course. Vaniteux will have to be very good to beat him here over this trip.

2 Points win 3/1 Coral Will Hill

Cheltenham 1:55

Rolling Aces has threatened to win one of these good handicaps a few times but I think this may be his best opportunity. He is proven of this mark after an eye-opening finish in the Grand Sefton and the 5lbs claimer on along with the drop of 1lb should really put him right in it here.  I’d be happy with the  8/1 on offer as there are a couple at the front of the market I don’t fancy at all.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

2:20 Cheltenham

Bothy has understandably taken a few races to get going after a 2 year break but I think there was a sign or 2 last time that his time might not be that far away, along with the fact the he is off an increasingly attractive mark.. This is a big step up in trip but any horse that can get 2^nd in the Coral Cup can stay 3 miles here in a normal race. 20/1 with paddy power is just too big to ignore and I wouldn’t be at all surprises if he went of shorter than there in this race.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

2:10 Musselburgh

Ruacana has been a frustrating horse more than a few times since his good 4yo form, but he ran well at this time last year of a higher mark in a similar but stronger race and did look like he was ready for a step up in form on the basis of a nice first run this season.  He has a decent 7lbs claimer on tomorrow and it leaves him with a very nice racing weight.  The current generally available 8/1 looks a decent bet.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Leopardstown 12:50

I thought that Kashline would be near favourite here after some very decent Chase performances of a higher mark than this hurdles mark. He was a decent hurdler as well and looks well in here carrying only 9:13 taking into account the 5lbs claimer on today. He is also blinkered first time. This could be a tough staying race and should suit him. 14/1 is a few points more than I expected.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

Leopardstown 2:55

I have a huge amount of confidence in Bobs Worth for the Gold cup and strangely not as much here, but now that the 4/1 is available again it’s tempting. This race will suit him if he is near 100% he will be very hard to beat . I just can’t leave the price on First Lieutenant go at the huge price of 16/1 without a bet. He was poor enough in Down Royal but had been poor last year there before being pipped by Bobs Worth in this race afterwards and 16/1 is an insult.

2 Points win 4/1 Bobs Worth Will Hill/888

1 Points EW First Lieutenant 16/1

1:50 Leopardstown

This race is full of question marks and id be banging my head against the wall if I didn’t have a small bet on Briar Hill at 8/1. That is just too big and I’m not at all sure he needs to be at his best to win this. That price is easily worth the risk and the fact that he is friendless in the market hasn’t stopped me in the past and wont now.

1 Point win 8/1 Paddy Power

Limerick 1:35

Maybe I’m blind or something but I think the current 20/1 about Letter of Credit is vastly overpriced here. He has course form, has been running in very good races, is on what looks a favourable mark and had plenty of form on heavy ground. He should be about 8/1 Get on at that price before somebody wakes up..

2 Points EW 20/1 Generally

Leopardstown 2:55

Daring Article has a couple of very good runs in big handicaps around here and has looked like he needs this step up in trip.  Although he has done nothing this year yet he has surly been prepared with this in mind and has first time blinkers here. I suppose I  could have hoped for a bit bigger than 25/1 but that just doesn’t happen in Irish handicaps and with 5 places paying and his good record around here he still looks a bit of value.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Various

Welsh National 2:35

Summery Justice’s current price of 40/1 looks a bit too big here, given he has performed well of this mark before and should improve for him decent seasonal opener 2 weeks ago.  The ground or trip shouldn’t be a problem, and he is relatively lightly raced for a 10 yo and may still have a bit of improvement in him. He doesn’t look the pick of the stable which is why he is such a big price but I wouldn’t rule him out because of that.

1 Point EW 40/1 Bet365 / 888

Leopardstown 1:20

If Twinlight can recover the form of his very good seasonal opener he can easily outrun his price of 25/1 here. In fact I think he may well be the best of Willie’s here over 2 miles. He is a big price after a poor run last time after a few mistakes, but on his day is well capable of getting involved here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power

King George

I’ve known I’m backing Cue Card in this since last year and to say I’m raging that I didn’t put up the 10/1 earlier this week is an understatement. Its turned him from a max bet to a standard 2 pt bet, and its pure laziness on my part. I don’t subscribe to the general consensus that he won’t stay or didn’t stay last year. He looked to have stopped before the second last for some reason and then stayed on well enough after that. He is clear 2^nd Favorite here in my mind and I have him as a 7/2 shot, behind the very sold looking favorite.  Champagne Fever has generally been disappointing outside of the Cheltenham festival and I just don’t know how he can be as short as he is here, that isn’t to say he won’t win but there isn’t a lot of evidence to put him in this class.

2 Points win 7/1 SportingBet