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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Tuesday Longshot

11 Tuesday Nov 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Huntington 2:10

Conquisto is on a very favorable mark here in comparison to his current mark over fences. He has been very consistent over the big obstacles and given that his last run over hurdles was a win of this mark also with a  claimer on board, and it was also his second run of the year after  a break at this time of the year,12/1 looks great value. He has a 10lbs claimer on today and hopefully if he is decent the selection should be able to get involved here. His first run this year over fences was decent enough and he should improve for that.

2 Points win 12/1 Generally

Long Shot Saturday

08 Saturday Nov 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Wincanton 2:40

I’m going to follow Golden Chieftain until he wins and although I was hopeful of a better price here, he travelled well last time until running out of steam at the end and he really should strip fitter this time.  Another that interests me here at a big price is Ackertac who also ran well up to a point on his reappearance but will hopefully improve for that run. He is on a very good mark with a 7lbs claimer on and should be competitive today.

1 Point win 11/1 Golden Chieften

1 Point EW 33/1 Ackertac

Wincanton 3:15

I don’t think Starluck is out of this at all off this mark and could well be about to come into some form of a mark he has won of before. The ¼ the odds 33/1 EW with Stan James is attractive enough to make him a bet here. Ill ne shouting Rock on Ruby on as he is one of my favourite horses but hopefully Starluck can come late here with his light weight

1 Point EW 33/1 ¼ Odds Stan James

Sandown 2:30

Tatenen is probably my most profitable horse ever, but as much as I think he is in with a great shot here, he is probably a 140 horse running of that mark. I thought he might well be shorter than the 12/1 on offer and I’ll have to have a small piece of that over his ideal trip.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Doncaster 1:50

Sirius Prospect has his ideal conditions and I’m surprised to see him available at 16/1. He has been in good form of this mark lately bar his last run and is definatly capable of winning this. Ill also go with old favourite of mine Doc Hay just in case he get back to form, at a big looking 33/1

1 Point win Sirius Prospect 16/1 Generally

½ Point win Doc Hay 33/1

Doncaster 3:35

Sir Walter Scott catches the eye here of a decent looking mark he’s a relatively unexposed horse compared to a lot of these and shaped well enough in the Ebor. It looks as if this trip amy be more suitable for him and 33/1 looks big. Also at a big price Kings Bayonet has some decent form on heavy ground and of bottom weight may well improve for the softer ground here and stay into a place at a huge 40/1

1 Point EW Sir Walter Scott  5 places 33/1 Bet365 and others

1 Point EW Kings Bayonet 5 places 40/1 Bet365 and others

Long Shot Tuesday

03 Monday Nov 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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2:15 Exeter.

Simple race for me here, Cue Card is light years ahead of any of these and although he was beaten last year in what was a similar race and it comes with some risk attached 3/1 is too big to ignore in this race.

3 Points win 100/30 Stan James/888

Melbourne Cup

I like a couple of the big priced outsiders here in Royal Diamond and Au Revoir. Both look certain stayers and have bits of form that if produced on the day would make their price of 80/1 on Betfair look a touch generous. Royal Diamond has proven to be top class on his day and Au Revoir produced a very nice first run in Australia after a break and could well be better for that run (albeit from a poor draw.

1 Point win 80 Au Revoir , 1 point win Royal Diamond 85 Betfair

Long Shot Saturday

01 Saturday Nov 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Down Royal 2:30

I really can’t have Ma Filleule as favourite for this race as good and all as she was last year. Boston Bob will be very hard to beat in my eyes and has a perfect 111 record when running for the first time. He is steadily improving and is more of a 7/4 shot than a 7/2 shot here. I had First Lieutenant as the main danger but he hasn’t a good record fresh so everything points to 7/2 being great value for my selection here.

3 Points win 7/2 Various

Ascot 3:00

I’m going to take a risk here on Ted Spread at an overly generous 16/1 with StanJames. He looks to me to be coming back to form judging by his flat runs this year and his last completed hurdle race ready well of this mark . I just feel that price may well be too big and fit from good runs on the flat.

1 Point win 16/1 Stan James

Ascot 3:35

This is a strange race where is can’t really fancy anything with any conviction. The only horse I can’t rule out for value here is Cantlow . His 2nd in the Stewart Gold Cup at Cheltenham last December looks very high class form and he ran well until not staying in the Irish national after that. This 3mile trip should be perfect and if he is ready to go here 20/1 looks a very fair price.

1 Point win 20/1 Various

Ascot 1:15

Novice Hurdles aren’t my usual bag but Light Well seems to be overpriced here. He has some half decent flat and a decent first run over hurdles a long time ago but there doesn’t seem to be any real stars in this race and he looks worth a small bet at 33/1 as he may have some potential.

½ Point win 33/1 Generally

Long Shot Sunday

26 Sunday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Leopardstown 3:25

Had a look at Blue Huzzars last race and to say he never got a run is a bit of an understatement. He should improve with the step up in trip and with the 7lbs claim and 3yo allowance here he could well be on a very competitive mark here. To be honest I was kind of hoping for a bigger price but i get the feeling the 16/1 with 5 places currently available with bet365 might just look big before the race.

2 Points EW 16/1 5 places Bet365/Ladbrokes

Long shot Saturday

25 Saturday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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On my mobile so quick selections today.

3:00 Aintree

Rolling Aces looks easily the best treated in this race, and although laziness has missed the 9\1, im happy with 7\1

2 pts win 7\1 generally.

Long Shot Saturday

18 Saturday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

1:45 Ascot

I think the conditions here might just play into the hands of Biographer here. A lot of this field are unproven or aren’t guaranteed to go on this ground at all. He has been poor this year, but his last run was his best this season and ran a decent race in this last year with what looked a deeper field. There is a chance that we should be sticking with the 7/1 to place with bet365 but in for a penny in for a pound and I’ll chance EW at 28/1 in a few places as well.

1 Point ew 28/1 Generally & 1 point place 7/1 Bet365

2:20 Ascot

Racking my brains to see what surprise could happen in the sprint and the 4 places ew with bet365 have made up my mind. Gathering Power looks to be steadily improving and at 50/1 with 4 places looks the best value in this. I don’t think he would be coming at all without some kind of chance as the stable also have Viztoria. It’s more of a gut feeling selection but I’d be annoyed if I didn’t pull the trigger after looking at it this morning

1 Point EW 4 places Bet365 50/1

2:55 Ascot

Chicquita wasn’t great in the Arc but that is understandable in that race. She is relatively fresh for this year and although we don’t know what the story with the ground is, she should be favourite here. On form the race is between her and Hadaatha and they both look overpriced but I’ll go with the Aobrien charge by a small margin.

1 Point win 13/2

3:30 Ascot

Kingsbarns was 3rd in this last year in what was definatly a stronger race,. He hasn’t done a lot this year but goes on the ground and in a shockingly poor Group 1 he may be able to get back to form here. The former Racing Post Trophy winner on soft ground won’t get a better opportunity than this and looks an unbelievable price at 18/1.

2 Points EW 18/1 Various

Ascot 4:05

Al Kazeem ran well in the Arc again this year, and appears to be on the way back to decent form. There may be nothing between him and Ruler of the world again here and when I look at the field he looks very hard to knock out of the places here at 18/1 in the without the Fav market on Ladbrokes. He also stands a decent chance of grabbing 2nd behind the fav.

1 Point EW 18/1 w/o Fav Ladbrokes.

Ascot 4:45

Both Belgian Bill and Hawkeyrthenoo stick out for me here at the prices. Hawkeye has always looked as if 1 mile might not be a disadvantage and will go on the ground. Belgian Bill has looked likely a couple of times at this course and if he can go on the ground is certainly overpriced at 28/1. Im also going to have a just in case win bet on Heavy Metal as has been a revelation this year and is well capable of just bouncing back to form at the right time for a trainer who picks up these regularly.

1 Point EW Belgian Bill 28/1 5 Places

1 Point EW Hawkeyrthenoo 33/1 5 places

½ Point win Heavy Metal 40/1

2:35 Cheltenham

Ackertac looks to have been given a serious chance by the handicapper here. He has a good record fresh and will surely be readied for this today. If his 7lbs claimer can be worth his claim here he has a very light weight and would be difficult to beat on his best form.

2 Points win 12/1

3:45 Cheltenham

Golden Chieftain doesn’t have the best record fresh but he has course form and ran a couple of eye-catching races last term. He is down to a winnable mark and is bound to win this year soon enough, so I’ll have to follow him until he does. 14/1 looks value

1 Point win 14/1 Sporting Bet

 

Longshot Saturday

10 Friday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Newmarket 3:50

I’m going to go with Waterclock here at a huge price. He was 2nd in this last year of 6lbs higher, but has been poor this year. There is surly a chance that all this season has been geared to this race and given his odds of 40/1 he’s worth a risk.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Betvictor

Strange race where I don’t really like anything with much conviction, but I’m going against me reasoning for my other pick here with one with a  bad draw (as if that matter is a 2m2f race) and poor race form . Earth Amber has some good early season form in good races and although he is high enough in the weights he has surly been put away for this. His last run can be ignored if that is the case and id be kicking myself if a Henderson trained Fallon ridden horse was to win this at 40/1 or bigger. The trainer just doesn’t tend to run no hopers.

1 Point EW 5 places 40/1 Generally

York 2:20

Having looked at this race there seems a possibility that this may fall into the lap of Educate. He is up against a lot of horses that have come up in the weights or are out of form. He is in good form of late and has been as consistent as anything in his last few runs. If this 7lbs claimer can ride him the way he needs to be ridden he looks shorter than the available 8/1 to win here

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

York 3:30

Rex Imperator has been poor this year but looks to have been given a big chance here by the handicapper if he can get any of his old form back. I don’t think he’ll mind the softer ground and I just can’t resist 33/1 about such a class animal. In these type of sprints anything can happen and if one is to cause a shock he is the most likely. I’m also going with one that looks a touch unexposed to me and might just be able to go on from here. Fairway to Heaven looked very good on his second last run and possibly has some improvement in him. He looks worth another 33/1 risk worth taking

1 Point win both 33/1 Generally

York 4:45

Cape Tribulation has run well in this before off a break and is simply too low in the handicap to ignore at a big looking 20/1. He may be getting on and not as good as he was but he possibly won’t need to be here.

1 Point win 20/1 VC & Coral

Friday Longshots

09 Thursday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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York 2:30

I’ve seen a little bit of hope in 2 old favorites lately who are tumbling down the handicap here. Both Magical Macey and Secret Asset have given a small clue that something might be on the horizon over this trip. Noting totally obvious but they might be worth a small bet each here at huge prices just in case. Both should be suited by a softer 5 furlongs.

1 Point win 33/1 Secret Asset Sky/Coral

1 Point win 28/1 Magical Macey VC/Sky

Good Couple of days near 40pts Profit.

07 Tuesday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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After Treve won for us at 10/1 advised with a 3 point win bet, we had a nice 14/1 winner today in Loving Spirit. Ill be updating the stats shortly and that will hopefully make it look less embarrassing than it could have been.

treve

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