3:30 Doncaster

This looks a tight enough race with many with reasonable chances. For value here I’m going for Wayward Prince. His second this year in the Charlie Hall trying to give Harry Topper and Unioniste 4 lbs now looks right out of the top drawer and I think he has a very decent chance here of a mark of 150. He has a poor run since at Aintree but has made a mistake at the first and never recovered. He is capable of putting in a poor run but most of his runs over the last 2 years would put him in with a far better than 20/1 shot here of this mark and he looks worthy of an EW bet.

1 Point EW 20/1 sporting/victor/betfair

I apologize here for a possible hopeless case of heart ruling head, but Tataniano was my favorite horse after a couple of ridiculously good performance’s in his novice days, and I’ve been watching him with interest this year after he has followed the same path as one of my current favs Tatenan to the stable of Richard Rowe. He has never had a full season of racing since his novice days and really only showed his true class once, bolting up in a 2 mile handicap against some decent yardsticks of a rating of 160. He had a half decent seasonal opener at Cheltenham and followed that up with 3 runs in the space of 60 days on soft Ground. The alarm bells really rang for me last time out as he is a known far better horse on good ground and to see him fade out on heavy ground over 2m5f really reeked of a spin to get him down further in the handicap. His mark is now an unbelievable 138 and he will get about 10:07/8 in either of his festival appearances. He has been given a decent break since hopefully to get him right. Given his preference for good ground and the fact that I’ve managed to pick out each of Tatenans 3 wins a big prices for the same connections, I’ve a silly amount of (possibly misplaced ) confidence that he is about to strike. I would hope that the ground will be decent at Cheltenham but if not I’m assuming he would go to Aintree.

I’ll take advantage of the Bet-Victors Non-Runner Free Bet concession for what looks a price I would be very happy with once his odds start to tumble hopefully close to the race. Should it turn up soft at the festival I think he won’t run and well roll on to Aintree for another shot.

I had the Grand Annual in mind all year for him but he is also engaged in the Byrne Group Plate over 2m4f and although I’d prefer the 2 mile race he should be fine once the ground is decent for the longer trip.

2 Points EW 40/1 BetVictor NRFB Byrne Plate
2 Point EW 33/1 BetVictor NRFB Grand Annual

Kempton 3:50

I’ve missed some better prices earlier this week on Tour des Champs but now that its nrnb and the field has broken up somewhat he still looks great value at 12/1. I was on him last time out in the Welsh National but he hit the 4^th fence and was never travelling after that. Before that this horse has put in a string of very decent performances off marks in the 130’s and I think he looks thrown in here of 127 with only 10.01 on his back. He will be getting at least 5lbs from the field and is still a relatively unexposed 7yo in this type of race. Weight could well be a huge factor here in what will be a slog and the race just looks poorer than it should be for the money on offer.

2 Points win 12/1 Various 

4:30 Newcastle

Gansey looks to have been ruled out too quickly by the market after this poor run last time. He won this race of this mark 2 years ago after a similar poor run and actually has had pretty decent form this season especially in his 2 previous runs of this mark and with the step down in class here on a course he has form on him being the 12/1 outsider of the field looks a bit silly.

1 Point win 12/1 Bet365

2:55 Newcastle

I was looking at Safran De Cotte in this but pricewise has ruined the price on him unfortunately and I’m not sure he’d be value at 10/1. Looking at the rest of the field for value Seven Woods looks an ideal type for this race, he certainly looks as if the step up in trip will suit him judging by his runs this year. He looks a real stayer in the making on his run behind HandsupforDetroit at Chepstow.  He has some decent novice form and apart from his poor run over hurdles latest (which looks a clue to this being his target) he has been knocking at the door this year, in my mind looking for this trip. 18/1 looks a nice price and worthy of a small bet.

1 Point win 18/1 Lads/vic/James/365

Navan 1:40

I don’t usually look at Irish racing at all especially handicap hurdles, but I’ll have a punt on the outsider of the field Kostar in the race. He ran well enough here 2 runs ago when looking like a step up in trip might suit and the additional help of 3 more pounds respite from the handicapper along with a 7lbs claimer on today might just see him in with a chance here. He will be getting stones from most of the field and in today slog that should help considerably.

½ Point EW Victor/Paddy

Rigadin De Beauchene went one better than 12 months ago when leading a Venetia Williams-trained one-two in the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock tipped at 16/1..

3:15 Ascot

Just a quick one for tomorrow at a decent price Dan Breen looked a good deal better last time out for most of the race and I get the feeling a step up in trip might just suit him. He is proven on the ground and had 3 very decent runs off around this mark in top handicaps last year. I won’t be having a normal size bet as I get the feeling he may well be heading for the Martin Pipe at the festival so it’s possible he won’t be putting it in tomorrow, but 33/1 is too big to ignore.

1 Point EW 33/1 Bet365

Increased bet after info on another forum, considering he need to at least not go down in the weights to get into the Martin Pipe.. up to 1pt EW..

2:55 Haydock Park

Rigadin de Beauchene was 2^nd in this last year of the same mark and I don’t think jockey bookings mean anything here as this jokey has always been on him. He is on his seasonal reappearance but given proven trip and ground ability 16/1 is too big. Trainer couldn’t be on a better run than at the moment.

1 Point win 16/1 Ladbrokes/888/Betfair

3:50 Ascot

Captain Chris should win this with a bit in hand but seeing as I’ve ruled out the rest of the field here bar Medermit, who has a great record fresh , I’ll have to go with him at the current prices. When last seen he was really improving when a close 2^nd and 3^rd to Riverside Theatre when he was in his prime, and if he can run well fresh today he may be the only one in the field to trouble the fav.

1 Point win 14/1 BetVictor

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post Bet

It’s not like me to be bothered putting up ante-post bets, but I’m going to go with a small win bet on Recession Proof in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. He was travelling well last time out when he fell, and I just can’t resist the 25/1 Available in a few places at the moment. He has form on soft and has won a similar race before of the same mark in these conditions albeit a few years ago.

He started well over hurdles and then finished 5^th in what must be the most ridiculous Supreme Hurdle ever in terms of future form. Of the 4 in front only Spirit Son hasn’t  proved to be absolutely top class (only because he won 1 more race and hasn’t been seen since). The others are Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. Recession Proof finished in the lead group 7 lengths clear of a couple of other good yardsticks and that form would simply cruise this race with 10:08 on his back. Obviously he may never reach that peak again but he won’t need to here and I saw enough in his last run to make 25/1 Tempting. He does need to get over what looked a heavy enough fall, but all that is built into the price and I can see him being backed down to more like 12/1 on the day and id be raging if I hadn’t a point on at 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 Various

I’m going to place an additional EW bet on Recession Proof now that there is NRNB available with Ladbrokes at the 25/1 I’m looking for.

1pt EW 25/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

2:25 Newbury

Walkon is not completely out of this on the terms he is running under today with only 11:00 on his back. My gut feeling is Al Ferof may not be at his best at all on this ground and Walkon has shown a liking for soft ground in the past. His 2^nd in the Paul Stewart on soft ground at Cheltenham was decent form in a race that worked out well and he arrives here a fresh horse with only 1 run this year. He also was 2^nd at Aintree to the Hennessey winner giving his a stone. 9/1 looks a bit of value given the conditions of the race.

1 Point win 9/1 Various

Betfair Hurdle Newbury 3:35

I’m going to go with a just in case bet in this on Montbazon. I was looking at him during the week and kept talking myself out of a small bet on him as he’s been of for 2 years and doesn’t really have any record on soft ground but I’d be so annoyed if he ran well now that I have to have a min bet. He was a top class novice 2 years ago and is feasibly weighted on that form. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he gave a decent showing here. It does seem a strange introduction after 2 years off.

½ Point EW 28/1 Bet265 5 places.

2:40 Ffos Las

Firebird Flyer is a much bigger price than I expected him to be here. He has an exceptional course record in heavy ground, 2 wins from 3 runs and has the required bottom weight here in what will be a monumental slog. Granted he was poor last time but if they has any sense today will have been the plan. He is only 1 lb. above his last course win in admittedly a poorer race in similar conditions, but heavy ground is a great leveler and he has proven form.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally.

1:50 Sandown

This race has me disappointed in that one of my bets of the festival is out here over his preferred trip of 2 miles, which I have been waiting patiently for this year. I have Kumbeshwar flagged up for the Grand Annual with a deal of confidence after numerous spins around Cheltenham over longer trips. He is down to a great mark and as the price is gone now I won’t be suggesting a bet in this race. I’m hoping he get a nice spin around and finished maybe placed so that his handicap mark won’t be too adversely effected for the Festival. I am going to suggest ½ win at 33/1 for the Grand Annual just in Case he wins here and that price shortens considerably.

½ Point win 33/1 Grand Annual.

3:35 Sandown

Fruity o Rooney is a surprising 12/1 here given all his very good form last year of higher marks.  He was 3^rd in a very similar race here last year which had a much stronger field than this and has proven himself on softer ground on a few occasions.

1 Point win 12/1 Betfair & Sporting Bet

Argento Chase Cheltenham Tomorrow

Ill put up and explanation later when i get a chance, but at the conditions of this race with proven Course & distance form the Giant Bolster looks great value at 7/1 Generally. He was poor over hurdles last time out but he has an exception course record and not many do over this trip.

2 Points win 7/1 Generally

Doncaster 3:15

This race is not as strong as I would have expected and I’m going to go with Roberto Goldback. If he can repeat his 4^th at Ascot earlier this year in a race that could scarcely have worked out any better he should be right in there with shout. He is off a 1lbs lower mark here and although in between he was poor again over the Aintree fences this type of race is much more in his wheelhouse. 16/1 Looks generous.

1 Point EW 16/1 Paddy 4 places 

Cheltenham 1:50

Our Mick will need to improve his jumping to be in the shake up here, but he does have very good course form and has been given a bit of a break since his last poor round of jumping. If he can improve at all he may well be of a very good mark here considering he was placed at the festival twice of 5lbs higher. He was also going well in this race last year when he slipped up 3 out. I was somewhat hoping for a bigger price when I loked at it earlier this week but in this field 8/1 still looks value.

1 Point win 8/1 Various

Leopardstown 3:25

The minute I looked at this race I stopped at an old friend in Prinston Plains at a huge price. He ran well 3 times in top class 2 mile hurdles of up to 9lbs higher last year, and was in the process of running well last time until falling at the last. That last run makes his current mark of 129 look very doable and given that he tends to perform well in these types of races 40/1 with 5 places in bet365 looks very enticing. He didn’t really take to fences but should be capable of getting involved here. Im also going to give a tiny chance to Ballyadam Brook He won recently on the flap against a good yardstick and given he was a talented novice he might be worth a min bet at the 80 available on Betfair

1.5 Points EW 40/1 Bet365 5 Places Prinston Plains

.5 Point Win Ballyadam Brook Betfair

Tyestes Chase

Not a lot of time for explanation’s but I’m going with 2 small bets here in Ipsos Du Berlais at 20/1, mainly because of his 2^nd last run and I’m ignoring his run since, and Uncle Junior as his last run was about as good as he has ever been and at a huge price he may well be feasibly handicapped here.

1 Point win 20/1 Ipsos Du Berlais Generally

½ Point win Uncle Junior 50 Betfair