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LongshotValue

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Leopardstown 7:55

15 Thursday Aug 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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7:55 Leopardstown

I’m going to go with both D Marnane horses in this, as they both could be ready for a big shout in this big pot. Jamsie has been disappointing a few times this year but his form in big English handicaps over this trip would look very good in this race of his current mark as the English races are of a much higher standard in my opinion. Seanie ran an excellent race at Galway when 4th behind Brendan Bracken, and although he was down the field next time out also at Galway he didn’t get any kind of run that time. He looks to be improving over his last few runs and given his drop in mark over those runs I think hell stand a decent chance today at a decent price.

1 Point EW Jamsie 16/1 Various

1 Point EW Seanie 20/1 Coral & Betfair

Long Shot Saturday

09 Friday Aug 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Newmarket 20:20 FRIDAY

Had to put in this bet as I’ve just noticed that Secret Witness is out in this race after what I considered a return to form last time out in the stewards cup. He is a stonking price on Betfair of 18, and a repeat of last week’s run with an additional 3 lbs reduction in mark could have him right in the firing line here.

2 Points win Betfair 18

Ascot 1:30

Two of my selections from the last week or 2 clash tomorrow after unlucky runs last time out. Brockwell was left with far too much to do last time behind Broxburne at Goodwood and should be close with a 5lbs turnaround but the real value here looks to be Saptapadi. He has caught the eye in his last few runs and really got blocked last time out at Goodwood when he was stopped a number of times towards the finish in a better race than this. He can certainly perform of this mark and the step up in trip looks sure to suit tomorrow. 14/1 looks a great price and I can’t see him going off at that price.

2 Points win 14/1 Stan James/Will Hill

Ascot 12:55

Redact is one I’ve been looking at coming down the handicap, and he could well stand a chance today at a big price here. He looked to run well enough a few times this year, including when 3rd to Pintura in May and seemed to be gradually improving in his last 2 runs. That combined with a nice drop in weights leaves him on an interesting mark of 92. He has an excellent Jockey up today and 18/1 seems a great price.

1 Point win 18/1 Generally

Ascot 2:05

There won’t be a lot between most of these and the value here appears to be Zero Money. He always seems to perform here and has a 5lbs swing in the weight with Racy for a 1 ½ length beating here behind Masamah. If he can repeat that form today he won’t be far away and 11/1 looks Value . Judge ‘N Jury looks a big danger and is probably worth a saver at 9/1, given that he looks to be getting back to form.

1 Point win Zero Money 11/1 888 & Will Hill..

½ Point win Judge ‘N Jury 9/1 Bet Victor

Long shot Saturday

03 Saturday Aug 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Limited time and on phone so quick selections

Good 2:05

Chooseday 33/1 looks a bit of value back over preferred 6f with g.lee up today

1 pt win 33/1

Stewards Cup

going with 3 here in Face the Problem ,who looks ready for a big run, Hoof It class above these if on form and tiddlywinks, which is gut feeling that he’s ready For a big run.

1pt win face the problem 25/1

1 pt win HoofIt 18/1

1pt win tiddlywinks 66/1

 

Friday 2/8

01 Thursday Aug 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 2 Comments

3:40 Goodwood

Judging By Kingsgate Natives last run where he had a very poor passage and was all over Tickled Pink, he looks the wrong price here. He has been very good this year apart from 1 poor run and is the best horse in this race on that form.12/1 look well overpriced.

2 Points win 12/1 Bet365 Stanjames

3:05 Goodwood.

I selected Sirius Prospect last Saturday and he won for me well backed. He has only gone up 3lbs for beating a well backed in form horse last day in Smarty Socks, and although it is a step up in trip today with a poor enough draw, i don’t think he is a 28/1 shot to overcome all that. He is still well in on his best form.

1 Point win 28/1 Coral

Galway Hurdle 4:55

01 Thursday Aug 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Shadow Catcher seems great value here at 40/1 in a few places, given his very good performance behind the favorite at Cheltenham. He has a very big turnaround in the weights, and has form on soft ground in the past. Although he was poor last time its to be expected given the value of this race and id assume today would be his target.

1 Point EW 40/1 Stanjames/BetVictor

Wednesday 31/7

30 Tuesday Jul 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 Goodwood

Brockwell is favourite here in my book, and I’m surprised to see him available here at 16 on Betfair. He is one of the least exposed in the field and ran a superb race in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last time, when finishing really well from what looked an impossible position. On the evidence of that the step up in trip will be no problem to him, and he may well be one that it still very much on the upgrade.

2 Points win 16 Betfair

Galway Plate

Muirheads 4th in the Bet365 Gold cup on his last run over fences is about as good form as there is in this race, and I think he has been given a chance here with his mark of 135. He was a high class Hurdler and has finished a decent 6th in this race before. This year he has run well In all his chases and I think this is his best kind of trip. 20/1 with 5 places on Bet365 looks great value. He should go on whatever the ground brings up.

1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 5 places

4:10 Galway

I’m going to go with a couple of the older brigade here. Caim Hill, could well be in better form tham his price of 20/1 suggests given his very good flat run only 1 month ago beating Shop Dl and Drive Time, in what looked a decent race. He looks to has a decent chance of working of the mark he has here and well worth a small bet at those odds. In Addition Eagles Pass hasn’t done a lot lately but has been shooting down the weights and has run well at Galway before. I wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see him improve here tomorrow and given that 33/1 looks value.

1 Point win Caim Hill 20/1

1 Point win Eagles Pass 33/1

5:25 Goodwood

Johannes has a great record around this course, albeit over a shorter trip. He has a very decent claimer on today that he has had success with before, and I though he looked improved last time out finishing well over 6 furlong’s despite being on the wrong part of the track. He is well weighted on his best form and looks a bit of value at 20/1 EW. He did overcome todays kind of draw last time he won here so hopefully he can do the same today

1 Point EW 20/1

Goodwood Day1

30 Tuesday Jul 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Limited time today so excuse the short writeups

3:40

Saptapadi is one Ive been expecting to pop up shortly for his last few runs an i see no reason to desert him after a pretty decent run last time out. He will appreciate the step up in trip and looks to have particularly excellent place chances he at a decent looking price of 18/1

1 Point EW 18/1 VCbet

5:25

Mister Manannan, is an old favorite of mine, who hasn’t been in the best of form this year. I just have a gut feeling he may well get back to form some time soon and ill probably have a bet in his next few races just in case. He is down to a very workable mark if he were to show any improvement.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

Long Shot Saturday

26 Friday Jul 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 4 Comments

Ascot 5:15

I’ve looked at this Handicap a few times this week and I keep stopping at the same horse Palace Moon. He just ticks a few boxes that may give him a chance at huge odds here. He won 3 handicaps last year starting at the mark he is of now. He has also on numerous occasions followed up poor runs with very good races, and has had a quite enough season compared to most of these. He started out this year with a decent enough run in a Listed Race in which he didn’t get the best of runs against higher rated rivals. He has had a couple of down the field runs in handicaps in fairly quick succession, which has resulted in a decent drop in mark.  He has had a month break this time which is more his normal break and has a Tongue Tie on for tomorrow. I’m hopeful that he has had these end of season handicaps on his radar this year. He is currently 50/1 with 5 places at Skybet and that stands out as a very decent price.

I’m sure ill be putting up 1 or 2 more for this race this evening.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 places Skybet

I’m going to go with one of my Favourite horses again here for a min bet just in case. I had in my mind if Excellent Guest got to 30 on Betfair I’d have 1/2 a point as his Ascot record is exceptional, and he actually won really well there earlier this year. He is 5lbs higher here now but he has run well of that mark before, and I’d be disgusted if I didn’t have a small bit on at that price. I’m also going with the stable’s other runner in Rebellious Guest, he has been running in these handicaps rather poorly but he has come down to what looks a decent mark and with a good 3lbs claimer, my gut feeling is that he may run well today.

½ Point win Excellent Guest 30 Betfair

½ Point win Rebellious Guest 70 Betfair

York 2:20

I had been looking at Sirius Prospect for the big race at Ascot, but he has turned up here in a weaker race. He has been running in top races, and his mark here of 102 looks workable enough in this race. I’m not sure he would have to be at his absolute best to win this and at 14/1 he looks well worth a small bet in case he decided to put in a decent performance here.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

York 3:30

Secret Witness has a very decent record at York and looked to be getting back to some kind of form last time out in a Group 3 in Ireland. By the looks of the big handicap today at york he may well have the best draw and he has come down to a workable mark after a generally below par year. He looks a nice bit of value at 25/1 EW and may well be difficult to pass here at his favourite course.

1 Point EW 25/1 Lads/365

York 4:40

Crackentorp, ran his best race for a while at Newcastle last time out and back here on his favourite course he must have a very decent chance of a return to form of what looks a decent mark. This race doesn’t look to have many great other options and I would expect Crackentorp to go of shorter than the 10/1 available now.

1 Point win 10/1 Betvictor & WillHill

Friday Longshot

26 Friday Jul 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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York 6:30

Baldemar looks overpriced here after a couple of very decent runs this year. Typical of a sprinter he has been inconsistent but that is the nature of these races. He can work of this mark as his last winning mark was 8lbs higher and has a decent record with the jockey up today. He may not have the best of draws but that remains to be seen. It doesn’t take a lot of analysis to work out that he isn’t a 33/1 shot here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

Longshot Saturday

20 Saturday Jul 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Still limited time to look at racing today as I only have a short time with wifi access. still no real problem as there is 2 very good NH races today at Market Rasen

2:55 Market Rasen

Barizan was the most confident selection that I’ve ever made last time out , and considering how I rated him a few years ago I think the 12 lbs rise is well within his grasp here given he has perfect conditions. He was 18 lengths clear of the 3rd in his last victory and repeat at here will be good enough. I have a slight concern that his main target Is the Galway plate in a few weeks and it seems strange to be risking a possible rise in the weights for the biggest purse of its type but I can’t pass up on the value at 8/1 in places. Given my slight concern about his target I’m also going for Local Hero in this as he looks sure to get back to top form here having won this last year of only 4 lbs lower. He was a good 3rd last time to Barizan and with both Barizan and Australia Day in this the race could be setup for him to come late. 11/1 looks great value for him.

2 points win Barizan 8/1
2 Points Win Local Hero 11/1

3:30 Market Rasen

This seems a difficult race and I’m going with my gut feeling that Donas Palm will like the good ground and only needs to recover some of his old form to be in with a chance here off a nice weight. He has won before in Galway on very good ground and I’m hoping today may well be his target. He looks worth 1 pt EW at his current best odds of 25/1. He is one of the classiest in the field in his best form.

1 pt EW 25/1 Sky Bet

5:10 curragh

Just a quick extra longshot. Norville is a much bigger price here than I expected and of a very good mark looks worth a min bet at 40/1 ew with coral.

1/2 point ew 40/1 coral .

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