I have a couple of Small EW Bets for today

1:40 Wincanton

Escort‘men looks to have gone down too far in the weight to be ignored here. He is obviously not as decent as he was with Nichols but, he wouldn’t need to be in this race of bottom weight. He is miles below his hurdles winning mark and looks value at 20/1

1 Point win 20/1 Paddy Power

3:10 Wincanton

The Sawyer has also been given a chance here in this veteran’s race, and although he isn’t as good as he was obviously, this race could really suit him and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could run well here. 16/1 looks great value.

1 Point EW 16/1 Paddy Power

Chino Valdes, has far too decent consistent form to be 40/1 for this race. He is in here of a nice mark in what looks a poorer race than he has been running in. He goes on the ground has a form jockey up and looks well overpriced.

1 Point EW 40/1 Boyles Sports ( 35 on Betfair)

At Last a very good Saturday, with a big priced winner in Vino Griego going off at 25/1, returning a superb 31.25 points profit. We also had a a nice 5 point profit on our 3 bets in the big hurdle race in Ireland with Il Fenomeno getting placed at 40/1 Advised. Profit on the day was +30.25 giving a running total for the year so far at +21.25

4:10 Cheltenham

Solix was one of my favourite horses at the beginning of last year, and although he finished poor enough in his chase run at Ascot, a couple of mistakes really put paid to his chance there. He is back over hurdles here over a shorter trip on heavy ground, and it’s possible he may be able to get involved here at a huge price. He has had 2 decent runs in France this year and 66/1 looks far too big . He should be able to carry 11:07 over this trip and id hope to see him prominent and staying on at the finish.

1 win Betfair 85 1 Point Place 9.7 Betfair 4 Places

12:40 Cheltenham

Vino Greigo has a lot of very decent form over fences and I’m surprised to see him in here at 18/1 in a few places. He is probably the most experienced in the field ran a very good 2^nd in a hot novice chase last time out and wouldn’t need to do a lot more to have a great chance here. He looks a very solid EW shout with his soft ground form and experience.

1pts EW 18/1 Stan James/Coral

1:15 Cheltenham

Tartak has been running really well this year, and is in here with 9 lbs less than his good run over c&d earlier this year when 6^th in a very similar race. This is probably his best trip and I was expecting his to be shorted than 20/1. He has got a huge turnaround in weight with  Katenko from his last run but will probably need it.

2pts EW 20/1 Various

Leopardstown 3:20

I’m going to go with 3 horses against the fiend here with 5 places EW. Il Fenomeno has some very decent novice form and hopefully today has been the plan for him for a while. This is more of a gut feeling selection and 40/1 looks value. De Valira has a good record fresh, was nearly as good over fences as hurdles and is in here of a great mark if he can recover any of his hurdles form. I’m also going with Shadow Catcher who surly has been laid out for this race. He has some 4yo form right out of the top drawer and hasn’t been seen since from a canny stable.

1pt EW Il Fenomeno 40/1 EW Bet365 5 places

1pt EW De Valira  50/1 EW Bet365 5 places

1pt EW Shadow Catcher 22/1 EW Bet365 5 places

I was impressed with her first run in the UK, when not getting any room at all in a decent Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, and I’ve been waiting to see what she would appear in next. The 3:00 at Newbury looks an ideal opportunity and although she has to give a decent horse in Violin Davis 6lbs, she is assured to stay and act on the soft ground which can’t be said about the fav here. 4/1 looks a great price and she looks the most likely winner.

3 Points win 4/1 Bet365 Paddy Power Boyles

Bet 1

Coral Welsh National 3:20

I don’t think there is a lot between the favourite here Teaforthree and Sol on their running in the Hennessy. If anything I think this race will suit Sol better as it should be a slower race and although he looked a bit one paced at the end of the Hennessey he did travel as well as anything, until the pace quickened. This race is nowhere near as good and I don’t think he should be 4 times the price of the fav here for what were a few lengths. He is still a young horse with little enough racing and hopefully he has enough improvement in him to build on that decent showing in the Hennessey  to have a decent shout here. 15.5 on Betfair looks a few points too big and I’ll go for a 2 point win bet

2 Points win 15.5 Betfair

Bet 2

2:40 Wincanton

I’m going for 2 min bets on outsiders here, in Take The Breeze and The Sawyer. Although they haven’t been in form of late they are well treated and this race could easily throw up a surprise in the conditions. The Sawyer in particular ran really well of much higher marks only last season, and if he has come on for his first run he might be difficult to pass here. I’m going to take advantage of decent looking prices on Betfair .

½ Point win  Take The Breeze 26 – ½ Point win The Sawyer 30

Bet 3

Sandown 3:00

Urgence D’estruval looks easily the most interesting here at the prices. He has some very decent form in France on Soft ground and apart from his last run there could well be up to this mark. This looks a weak enough Saturday handicap and a very decent opportunity. I think he is more of a 7/1 shot so the 11/1 currently on offer has to be taken.

1 Point win 11/1 Bet Victor & Sportingbet

3:40 Sandown

I’m going to go again here with 2 big outsiders that have a decent chance here. Hey Big Spender has proven form of this mark has won ½ his chase races. He also has won a few similar races of top weight like he has today. He’s worth a small risk at 17.5 on Betfair. The Same can be said of Tartak except that he has run well twice already this year and has come down what looks a generous few pounds to put him in with a decent shot here at a big looking 17.5 also on Betfair

½ Point win Both at 17.5 on Betfair

We had a very poor end to the year last year and although I haven’t totted up the loss yet, suffice it to say it’s not pretty.

I’m going to Start a new log for this year starting now, and I’m hopeful at this time of the year of getting out a profit.

Im going to keep a running total on the bets rather than trying to add up a load at one time, and number them all..

Fingers crossed for a better 2013 than last year

Leopardstown 1:55

The conditions of this race look to have really fallen well for What a Charm. Although she was poor on her first run back after a break, she is in here with bottom weight along with a 7lbs claimer and a strong liking for soft ground. If she is ever to show any of the potential that won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011, this is surly her best chance. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a few bob for her today and 16 on Betfair looks a great price.

2 Points win 16 Betfair

Leopardstown 1:25

I just cant let Voler La Vedettego of in this race at 11/2 and not a have a small bet. Altough she doesnt seem to be on top form this year, there is nothing to say that she wont get back to form here, and there really isnt much between her and the FAV here how has to give her 7lbs.

2 Point win Ladbrokes 11/2

3:10 Leopardstown

I have a gut feeling that Tharawaat could be the value in this race today. He has a very good record on heavy ground and ran a decent race in the Troytown last time out.  His mark of 138 should be within his compass and if he has improved from that run he can get involved here.

1 Pt EW 25/1 Stan James

I also like last year’s winner Cross Appeal at a huge looking 33/1 EW. I’d have to think that today has been the plan since his win here last year and it would be no surprise if he improved today from his recent runs. 5 places at that price certainly looks value.

1 Point EW 33/1 EW 5 Places Bet365

1:25 Kempton

I fancy Aikideau in this at a decent price , despite his chase career so far being poor in comparison to his hurdles, if he can improve his jumping he is in here of a very tempting mark of only 120 which is at least 8lbs lower than his hurdles mark, and he has some form in the past on heavy ground. I think he has plenty of potential and looks sure to be capable of a better mark than that. Hopefully he can take advantage today.

2 Points win Betfair 14.5

2:35 Kempton

Although Get me out of Here doesn’t have much form on softer ground he is certainly not a 30/1 shot in this race. He is the highest rated here and usually gives his all in his races. The favourite looks hard to beat in these conditions but my selection is easily worth a small bet at around twice the price he should be here. He can stay further than the 2 miles here and that might just be to his advantage in what should turn out to be a bit of a slog.

1 Point win 31 Betfair

Kempton 3:45

Filbert looks to have a decent shot in this handicap at what looks a very nice price. He is one of the most unexposed in the race, and ran a very good comeback race last time out at Sandown.  He is in here of a nice low weight and that can only help in the conditions today. Im surprised to find him available at 16/1 generally as I expected his to be one of the fancied horses.

2 Points win 16/1 Generally