2:35 Ascot

I had selected Katenko last time he ran at a huge price and although he finished down the field he did lok to travel well for most of the race in the very competitive Fixed brush Hurdle. He has great form on very soft ground in France and could well be in with a decent shout here as the outsider of the field.  He is getting a huge amount of weight from the principles and in today’s testing ground that may tell.

1 Point win 15.5 Betfair

3:10 Ascot

I’ve had Kazlian in mind for this race all week, and he looks to have the right kind of profile here. He has good form on heavy ground and although he was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance this year, I’m hoping today has been the plan for a while and the stable is well capable of pulling of a stroke in this kind of race.  He was a very good 4yo hurdler earlier this year that didn’t quite fulfil his potential and his mark of 135 could easily have some room for manoeuvre.

1 Point win 20/1 Ladbrokes

Im also going to go with a small EW bet on Dan Breen, as he ran well over c&d last time and is in here with a very light weight for such decent horse. He looks overpriced at 42 on Betfair and could well get involved here with less than 10st in these conditions.

½ Point win 42 1 Point place 7.8 Betfair

Back from xmas party so i apologise for the short notice and write-up

I think Nadiya De La Vega looks tha value in the 2:30 at Cheltenham. She is better of at the weights than the fav and 11/1 looks very decent value. If she can jump a bit better today than the last day she should be in with a big shout.

2 Points win 11/1 Bet365

Doncaster 3:20

I’m going to go again with King Fontaine, he is in here with near bottom weight and of a very decent mark. He is better on decent ground and this 3 miles could be ideal for him.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

1:25 Sandown

I liked the look of the way Gilbarry travelled in his first run over fences this year, and although he seemed to never have been put into the race at all he finished well in a hot race. His record over fences is poor enough really and he is back here today over hurdles on what looks a good mark..

2 Points win 16/1 generally

3:20 Aintree

Nacarat has a very good record at this course, and in this weaker race i think he has a great chance of getting back to form. 10/1 just seems at least twice the price he should be and i think he will be very difficult to catch if he get into a rythem around here.

2 Points win 10/1 Bet365/Will Hill/Betfair

Hennessy Gold Cup

With the ground drying out I’m going to go with First Lieutenant as the value of the race. I think he is clearly second favourite here and has had two runs this year, which should see him right for this test. His last run in Down Royal was very good and he wouldn’t need to improve much to be involved here. He is probably a better jumper than the favourite and looks sure to give me a run for my money at 12.0 on Betfair

2 Points win 12.0 Betfair

I went through the rest of the race and came up with two further horses that could well be value at the current prices. Diamond Harry obviously needs to come back to form, but I’m hoping today has been the plan for a long time and 10:03 for the former winner of this race certainly give him a superb chance if that is the case. In Addition Sol looks one that could really be suited by this test and again is possibly well handicapped on potential. I wouldn’t normally be very upbeat about a horse that has left Willie Mullins, but on last year’s form he could well get places here at a decent price

1 Point E/W Diamong Harry 25/1 Bet365 5 places

1 Point EW Sol 28/1 Bet365 5 places

Not a lot of time today to have a look but Benbane Head in the 2:40 at Newbury immediately struck me as value at 16/1 with Stan James. He just didn’t quite see it out in a much stronger race at Cheltenham 2 weeks ago and he is down a pound for that very good run along with now having the assistance of AP McCoy. He is considerably higher rated over fences and looks to be still on a good mark over hurdles judging by that last run. He ground should be a little bit better here and that should give him a better chance of staying the trip.

1 Point EW 16/1 Stan James

I’m afraid Heart will have to rule the head for my next selection. My favourite horse in training is Tataniano , and despite going out like a light last time out I’m hoping he can improve significantly for that run in the 3:15 at Newbury. He is one of the best jumpers of a fence in training and i can’t let him go off at 21/1 on Betfair without having a bet. He does have some form on softer ground despite looking better on good ground, and if he can recover some of his old form at all here he could jump these into submission. Finger’s crossed for a big run

1 Point win Betfair 22

Gut feeling selection here in Bajan Tryst, he has a great record on the AW and looks down to a mark he can win of here. He has run well enough in a couple of very good races since his last win earlier this year, and with the blinkers back on here and the assistance of the excellent G. Lee.. he has been placed on 10 of 15 runs on the AW and 16/1 looks a huge price.

2 Points win 16/1 Paddy Power

Ascot 3:20

Mad Max looks too big a price in this race. He had what looked an ok return this year, and if he is fitter for that run combined with a few pounds dropped he could well get involved today at a huge looking 20/1 with William Hill. On looking at his past form he is 111 from 3 runs of soft ground. He also has what looks a nice racing weight of 11:04 here and in my view has been written of too quickly here.

1 Point win 20/1 William Hill

Haydock 2:30

A very difficult race to be happy with any selection here given the ground and what looks a poor enough race quality wise for such a big pot. I’m going to go with a bit of value with a low weight, and an unknown quantity in Katenko. He has some very good form on soft ground in France a couple of years ago, and in fact there may not be that much between him and the other ex French horse much lower in the betting Katkeau. He is worth a risk of a decent weight, with a canny trainer well capable of getting him ready for a tilt at this type of race.

1Point win 20/1 Katenko  BetVictor / StanJames

Haydock 3:05

In my view todays slog will suit Long Run much better than the rest of this field and he doesn’t need to be within 10lbs of his best to win here. Silviniaco Conti is a pretty obvious danger but at 9/4 he is no value at all and needs to improve a hell of a lot to take this. It’s well within the realms of possibility that he might improve enough but can’t be backed at that price. He also hasn’t run on this type of ground before. All that makes the 7/4 about Long Run look a superb bet and he looks at best and evens shot to me if not odds-on, and that margin makes a more sizable bet a must

4 Points win 7/4 Long Run Various

Haydock 3:40

Mark the brook warrants a small bet here purely for the fact the he loves heavy ground. Before he missed 2 seasons in 2011/2010 he was a very consistent chaser in heavy ground ,and had a nice win again last year on his second run. 34 on Betfair looks worth a min bet as if he is fit enough he should be still going when other have long cried enough.

½ Point win 34 Betfair

Arbor Supreme may have finally found a race and mark to have a decent shot in today . This 4 runner race of a mark 118 getting a decent amount of racing weight from the others. 12/1 Stan James worth a shot..

1 Point win 12/1 Stan James

Unfortunately i wasn’t around to see the state of the ground at the Cheltenham which left 2 of my selections with no chance at all, but thankfully Cross Kennonfinished a very good 2nd at 33/1 EW advised to make it a break even day. He was so close to getting us back on track still it was a decent selection.

I have suffered from a few too many quick selections lately and should have more time to examine form better in the coming weeks

I’m Away Tomorrow so ill post up my only Bet for tomorrow in the Paddy Power

Poquelin looks very much the forgotten horse of this race. He has a superb record in these types of races and is now

down to a mark he can get competitive off once again. With the addition of the decent 7lbs claimer on and what looked a half decent seasonal opener at Ascot recently over too long a trip, i think he will be very difficult to knock out of the places here and warrants a decent bet at a big looking 28/1.

2 Points Each Way 28/1 Generally

I’m also going for Cross Kennon in the 3:05 at a huge price. He has a very good course record and looks down to a workable mark here1 point ew 33/1

in the 1:55 I’m going for King Fontaine also at a big price ew. He travelled well in his last run and looks of a decent mark here. He should stay no problem if his jumping is back to decent..

1 point ew 25/1