Betfred Cesarewitch 3:35 Newmarket

Early bet for tomorrow, Ashbrittle is way overpriced in this at 85 win and 13.5 place on betfair. He ran an eye-catching race at Ascot in the Ascot Stakes when travelling well only to get badly bumped 2 Furlongs. He ran on again at the finish to be 7th and a repeat of that run along with a 2lbs lower mark and a good 3lbs claimer on is going to make this price looks silly hopefully.

1/2 Point win 1/2 Point Place Betfair 85/13.5

I’m also going for Blue Bajan at a big looking 40/1 EW 5 places with Bet365. This is the first time this year he is running over an extended trip, which is what he needs and he has looked decent in his last few runs without getting any luck in running. He should be able to perform of this mark and could well be staying on past a good few of these at the end.

1 Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 Places

I’m going to add a small EW on last year’s second Ermyn Lodge , he has obviously been trained with this race in mind all year, and hasn’t really done anything in 2 unsuitable races but he is only lbs higher than last year and a repeat of that form would give him a great chance of placing at 40/1.

½ Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 Places

York 3:45 Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap

A straightforward selection here in Mirza who looks certain to go as well as anything on the ground and looked to me to be coming back to form last time out. He has plenty of very good form this season and although there was a blip in the middle with a few poor performances’ hopefully his latest run shows he is back on the upgrade. He is dropped into a handicap here of what looks a workable mark and he is a fair bit higher than i was expecting at 23 on betfair

2 Points win 23 Betfair

2:20 Newmarket Middle Park Stakes

I’m going to go with one of Aidan O’Briens 2 outsiders here in Parliament Square, his run in the Prix Morney behind the fav here was eye-catching in that he was closing fast in the end and Reckless Abandonhad got first run. The price difference is way too much to ignore here and 20/1 is certainly value

1 Point win 20/1 various

4:45 Chepstow

Mostly Bob is certain to stay what will be a real slog here and although he hasn’t exactly been as good as he looked in his early years, he has a nice racing weight here and look a really huge price on betfair at 46.

½ Point win Betfair 46

2:05 York

I’m going to Moorhouse Ladin this at a big price for a small bet in the hopes he can get back to some form. I tough his last run was reasonable enough when probably on the wrong side and he will be a lot fresher than most of these having had only 2 runs this year. He had a poor year last year but ran a decent race towards then end of the season on softer ground at Espon, and I’m hopeful he can do the same today.

½ Point win 25/1 Various

York 3:05

Mont Ras looks overpriced for this race at 14 on Betfair. He has been running well lately in better races than this and has some form on softer ground. There would be a slight question mark about his getting the trip in this ground but it’s worth the risk and 14.0. He has slipped a couple of pounds for those runs and should be able to get involved.

2 Points win Betfair 14.0

Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 3:25

I’ve already advised Camelot at 4/1 for the big race and I’m still happy with that bet as it looks a poor race and he wouldn’t need to be anything special really to take this renewal.

In the Arc I’m also going for a small bet at a very big price on Meandre. He was  6^th last year and there didn’t look to be a huge amount between him and the 2^nd fav here Orvevre last time out in one of the trials. We can be sure he has been prepped for this race this year and 31 on Betfair looks a huge price

1 Point win Meandre Betfair 31

Ascot 3:05

Genki ran his best race for a while last time out in the Group 1 at Haydock when 5^th , and given that it was on unsuitable Firm ground, he looks very likely to run a big race today on his preferred softer surface. 17 on Betfair looks too big.

1 Point win Betfair 17.0

Ascot 3:35

Brae Hill, is simply too big a price as a proven c&d performer and great form on a soft surface. He looked to be getting back to form last time out when a decent 6^th in the Ayr Gold Cup, and certainly isn’t a 25/1 Shot.

1 Point EW 25/1 Various Places

Ascot 4:10

Kingsgate Native looked to be ready to get back to form last time out when very unlucky not to win with loads in hand near the finish. He is on his day easily the best horse in this race and wouldn’t need to be at his absolute best to win here. He looks value at 4/1 and could end up a strong favourite for this race.

2 Points win 4/1 Various

Newmarket 3:20

Gabrial The Great looks to have conditions in his favour here, and 20/1 with boyles and Ladbrokes looks a bit too big. He ran a decent looking race last time out at Chester and should be ready to get back to form of a decent looking mark. Min bet just in case.

½ Point win 20/1 Boyles Ladbrokes

Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe

Quick one for tomorrow Camelot is 4/1 with Will Hills for this tomorrow and i think he is well up to winning this sub-standard Arc. 3 yo’s have an excellent record here and that price looks great value. He has a very good draw and Frankie should be an ideal jockey for him

3 Points win 4/1 Camelot William Hill

Going to go with a small bet here on Shoshoni Wind, this is a step down in class from her conditions race runs lately, and easily her best form this year was 3^rd at Chester behind Duchess Dora & Borderlescott on soft ground. She was back after a long break last time, and if that has put her right, she should stand a small chance on this soft surface of what looks a workable mark

1 Point win 24 Betfair Shoshoni Wind

A Very poor Saturday, with all the selections in the Cambridgeshire were drawn on the wrong side and never got into the race at all. Fork Handles was a disappointment in the soft ground which I thought would suit. The only decent result was 100/1 (BSP) Shot Al Aasifh on Betfair finishing a good 3^rd but unfortunately advised win only.. Pricewise had a superb 25/1 ante post winner in the big race and pulls clear at advised prices and draws closer at BSP prices. Ill update the stats later on.

15:40 Newmarket Betfred Cambridgeshire

Excellent Guest is one of my favourite horses and although he hasn’t been as consistent this year as others, he has a couple of very good runs which would give him a shout here if he can stay the extra 1 furlong here. He has a superb second in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot and followed it up with a 5^th in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood. He has a ready excuse for his poorer run last time out in that he raced alone for most of the race and that could suit his running style. He looks bit of value to at 40/1 ew.

Navajo Chief is a consistent type who just looks overpriced here. He has proven he is competitive of this mark a few times this year and back to his best trip on good ground he can get involved. He won the Goddard Stakes last year of only 2 lbs. lower than this mark and his win earlier this year along with his 4^th at York on possibly unsuitable ground over shorter trip, all add up to him being capable of putting up a performance today at a huge price on Betfair

Spanish Duke is added in here just in case he comes back to form. He was very poor last but ran an  eye-catching race the time before when not getting clear run at York. He is well capable of this mark and id be kicking myself if he won this after I’ve selected him a few times without success this year. Hell need the race to pan out exactly right for him but look worth a shot at a huge price.

Excellent Guest ½ pt EW 40/1 6 Places SkyBet

Navajo Chief ½ Pt win Betfair 95

Spanish Duke ½ pt EW 40/1 5 Places BoylesSports

16:50 Newmarket
Al Aasifh has run well fresh before, especially last year when 2nd in a conditions race at Doncaster. He is down to what looks a decent mark now and takes a drop in class here from what he has been running in in this country. He had one good run at Meyden but was poor a couple of times after that , but if he is ready to run here and gets back to the fairly decent turf form he had last year, he looks a huge price on Betfair at 50.
½ Point win 50 Betfair

14:35 Haydock
Marine Commando is one I’ve been keeping an eye on at his reduced mark. I was expecting him to turn up today as he won the 5furlong race last year of a 10lbs higher mark. His last run had a half decent look to it and he could easily be supported today to get back to form. He is unproven of this type of ground but so are most of the field. He’s worth a bet at 16/1 just in case.
1 Point win 16/1 Various

15:50 Haydock

Fork Handles is one of the few in this race with any kind of form on this soft ground having won a soft ground handicap at Chester earlier this year and that alone makes her look value at her current odds of 12/1. She is down to what looks a decent mark and should log her way through this better than most of the rest of these.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

Askaud is one I’ve selected a few times this year after what looked a very good run in the Lincoln at the start of the year, but in hindsight she has been running a lot on unsuitable ground or trip, and her 2 decent runs  since  have been over a mile on decent ground. The extra furlong here shouldn’t be a problem and given that the run in the Lincoln was off 11lbs higher, she looks to have a decent chance here at a huge price and well worth a min bet.

½ point win/place Betfair 55/9.5

Ramona Chase is a consistent horse who tends to give his running, and has enough in his favour today to make his odds of 20/1 look very enticing. He goes on Soft Ground, is below his last winning mark, and ran a very eye-catching race last time getting hampered a number of times and finished well at Doncaster over a shorter trip. The step up should suit and looks overpriced.

1 Point EW 20/1 Will Hill/Blue Square /Coral

Got outpaced by a couple of decent looking un-exposed horses after travelling well finished 5-6th..

Bathwick Bear is one I’ve put up before, and I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to get a bit of value from him. He has a very decent record on soft ground and looked to be on the way back to form when 3^rd behind 2 good sprinters last time out. Of his current mark he is certainly capable of taking this if back to form and the current 12/1 available in a few places looks value as he seems more of an 8/1 shot to me.

1 Point win 12/1 Coral Betfred

Backed into 6/1, but didnt get away quickly enough. Ran ok to be 4th…