Saturday Report
26 Sunday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
26 Sunday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
24 Friday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
Tote Ebor
I’m going with a gut feeling that when Harrison’s Cave was a very good staying on 3rd at Ascot in the Duke of Edinburgh they decided to have him ready for a cut at this race. He was very poor next time but I would ignore that if today is that plan. He looked at Ascot as if he can handle this mark and will certainly improve for the step up in trip. 22 on Betfair is what I’ll go for.
I will also go for Blue Bajan EW, as he had a very decent return to handicapping over c&d last run and with the extra 2lbs he is down from that run I think he has a superb chance of placing here at a huge price. He has been contesting group races for a long time now and should relish the drop in class and with a nice lightweight
1 Point win Harrison’s Cave 22 Betfair
1pt EW 5 Places Blue Bajan 33/1 Paddy Power
2:45 Goodwood
Gatepost is handicapped to get pretty close to the Fav here Fullbright on his 2 runs lately at Newmarket behind him. The step up in trip to 7 from 6 after a failed attempt at 8 should be ideal and he could still have some improvement in him as he’s only 3 and looked a very good 2yo. 30 on Betfair looks too big and worth a small bet
A repeat of Mabait’s last run against the fav again over 8 Furlongs here was a good return to form and he can go close again here at a huge looking 38 on Betfair. The step back might not be ideal but he’s is worth the risk at that price.
1 Point win 1 Point Place Gatepost Betfair 30 / 6.6
1 Point win 1 Point Place Mabait Betfair 38 / 6.6
23 Thursday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
Early one for tomorrow
2:00 York
Tepmokea looks to be well overpriced for this race tomorrow. He is a Course and distance winner who will appreciate the rain that fell today. He was poor on his last run but it was over a longer trip. His 3rd in the Old Newton Cup of this mark on softer ground would put him in with a huge shout here and there is no chance he’ll be 22/1 for this tomorrow.
1 Point EW 22/1 Paddy Power
Not York but
Hamilton 7:05
Hillview Boy has shaped well this year in most of his runs, particularly 3 runs ago over too shot a trip at York on Soft Ground. He also has a good 2nd over C& D here earlier this year of 3lbs higher and also ran well enough last time in the John Smiths Cup considering it was over 10 furlongs. This 12 Furlongs on softer ground and down in grade should really suit him and despite having top weight he looks to have a very decent shot at a big looking 12/1.
1 Point win 12/1 Ladbrokes
22 Wednesday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
A poor enough days racing tomorrow compared to day 1.
York 3:05
Invisible Man has an exceptional record in very good 1 mile handicaps. He has been poor his last two runs in conditions races over further but obviously prefers the big fields. He has showed his well-being this year of a mark 3lbs higher when an eye-catching 5th in the Royal Hunt Cup and a repeat of that run will give him a great shot here. He isn’t really and each-way price at 14/1 in the bookies, so I’ll go for a bit of win value at 16 on Betfair.
1 Point win 16 Betfair.
York 4:50
I’m going to take a flyer on one at a huge price here in Swerve. She ran some very decent races in Ireland with Dermot Weld, and has been running on soft ground all the time. The one time she ran on slightly better ground she was a good 3rd in a handicap at the curragh that has worked out exceptionally well since. I’m hoping the much quicker ground here might just be an advantage to her and if so her mark looks decent. She has the assistance of Fallon today and looks worth a small bet at huge odds on Betfair.
½ Point win ½ Point Place Betfair 42 win 11 place
York 3:40
All the evidence so far indicates that there isn’t a lot between Shirocco Star and The Fugue over 12 furlongs and although The Fugue was impressive last time out that was over 10 furlongs and really doesn’t have much of a an impact on this race. The difference in price is too much to ignore at 7/4 and 9/1 and Shirocco Star has to be backed at those odds.
1 Point win Shirocco Star 9/1 Bet365 & Paddy Power
22 Wednesday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
A reasonable day with both Fitz Flyer at a huge price and Spanish Duke getting placed to keep the wolf from the door. Unfortunately my big bet of the day Deauville Flyer never got going at all, and ran poorly.
21 Tuesday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
2:00 York
I’m going to pick a few in this race at big prices, but I’m going to start with Captain Dunne. He is well capable of winning this of his current mark and is 3lbs lower than he was when winning the Epson Dash last year. He ran well again this year when showing loads of speed but fading in the end. If he comes on for that run he could easily hang on here. He is a ridiculous price on Betfair at the moment of 34 and that looks at least twice as big as he should be over this 5furlongs on fast ground
1 Point win Betfair 34
I’ve went with Fitz Flyer a few times lately until he got a bit to popular and his price was too low for me in his last few runs. I think his run last week over 6 Furlongs at Ripon can be ignored and he looks to really want fast ground and 5 Furlongs to be at his best. His mark of 89 is well within his grasp and he has looked like one about to strike in both his fast ground races this year. His run behind Barnet Fair at Ascot looked very good after an eye opening run in the Epson Dash before that. He is available at 60 on Betfair and that looks value along with 9.6 for a place
½ Point win ½ Point place 60win 9.6 Place
The Thrill has Gone, is one I’ve selected before to place at a big price. She just re-appeared this year couple of weeks ago at goodwood, and for me ran a great race despite being one of the only ones to stay on the stands side rail. She is down to a good mark on her old form and if she can find any improvement from that run at all she looks excellent value at 20/1 EW with 5 places on Skybet. I don’t normally like having 3 selection in one race but I cant leave any of them out, and overall 4 points on this race isnt too mad.
1 Point EW 20/1 5 Places Skybet
4:15 York
Deauville Flyer was 3rd in this race last year of a 5lbs higher mark. He came back to form last time out when running a great race despite coming up the straight mostly on his own on the stand side. He looks a very solid EW bet at 16/1. He has everything in his favour here even the firmer ground than his last run. He is going to be extremely difficult to knock out of the places and warrants a bigger than normal EW bet
2pts EW 16/1 Betfred/Stan James/ Totesport
4:50 York
Spanish Duke is the sort of frustrating horse that puts many off, but last time out he looked to travel well during the race at Goodwood, having to go wide all the way. He is a few pounds down from that and below his last winning mark. It looks to me that he may be about to come back into form and that will give him a great chance here. 20/1 looks value and worth a small bet.
1pt EW 20/1 Various
20 Monday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
Eland Ally is one I put up last time out at a big price and she didn’t run well. She is back over 5 furlongs here and both her best runs were over that trip. She was second in a very decent race at Doncaster last year with 5 lbs more than today and if she can return to form at all the current 50 on Betfair will look great value. She is worth the risk at that price. She is worth the risk for a min bet at such a huge price.
½ Point win 50 ½ Point place 12 betfair
NON RUNNER
18 Saturday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
Medici Time finally fulfilled my faith with a great win in the all greys race at Newmarket advised at 20 on betfair. We were close with Damika who was placed and a very good run from Lutine Bell in second. I had a fair few selections so it was a profitable day but perhaps to many selection eat into the profits.. Damika was unfortunate as I set my EW threshold on these races usually to 20/1 and he went off at that but was only 14/1 last night when i put it up.
18 Saturday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
Follow the Flag was 2nd in almost the same race as this earlier on this year with this jockey and over the c&d. He had a very good run on the AW after a break, and his turf mark is 9 lbs lower. He was only 1 lbs higher in that run here and looks a huge price at 20/1 on Bet365
1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365
18 Saturday Aug 2012
Posted in Saturday Selections
I like the look of Es Que Love in this he is a good prominent racer and ran a great race in the Stewarts Cup when not having the best of the draw. Middle to low looks ideal here and he is just the progressive type to go on from a big race here. I think 17.5 on Betfair represents value and worth a small win bet
1 Point win 17.5 Betfair