3:30 Ripon

One of my Favourite Races, and I think I’ve found one that is hugely overpriced here. Grissom had a great win a few runs ago in the Scottish Stewards cup of a mark of 90. He then ran poorly at york of ground that was too fast for him, but next time out he ran an eye-catching race in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, when getting blocked on a few occasions in the last 2 furlongs when looking ready to run a big race. He is only 3lbs higher than his last win and judging by his last race he can go well of this mark. Skybet are paying 5 places at the moment and are 25/1 which looks huge to me, and means a decent bet for me. Has the look of one that could shorten tomorrow, possibly if he is a pick of a certain value tipster.

2pts EW 25/1 Skybet 5 places

Ripon 2:20

Damika has looked to me to be bubbling under ready to run a big race for his last few runs, and where better than the scene of his biggest triumph a couple of years ago in the Great St Wilfred over c&d. He has been noted by me a few times lately, finishing his races well.  He is drawn near the middle which should be fine and looks overpriced at 24 on Betfair.

1 Point win 24 betfair

2:45 Newmarket

I’m going to give Medici Time another chance here. He ran an eye-catching race 2 runs ago here on softer ground over 5 Furlongs, and although he was poor last time he is down to mark he can certainly win of. He is 6lbs lower than his win at Newmarket last year and any kind of return to form at all will give him a great chance. The fact that he was punted last time gives me hope that he is performing at home.

1 Point win 20 Betfair

3:00 Chester

Kiama Bay racked up a nice sequence of runs over 12 furlongs last year including over course and distance. He has been tried over further this year but I fancy the step back in trip and reduced mark will give him a great chance here in what looks a decent opportunity. He is currently 10/1 with Paddy Power and to me he looks more of a 7/1 shot. The 2 favourites look to me to have a bit too much weight to carry.

2 Points win 10/1 Paddy Power

2:55 Ripon

Kyllachy Star has been creeping back to form while dropping gradually in the weights. He is here of a mark he can score off and in my view is one of the more likely winners.  He is 3lbs lower than his very good 2^nd on his season opener and this race represents a drop in class from what he has generally being racing with credit in this year. 8/1 with Bet365 looks value. He nearly always runs his race and if he does that in this race of this mark he won’t be far away.

2 Point win 8/1 Bet365

Doncaster 3:50

Lutine Bell has a very good record around here, never running a bad race and all of marks higher than today. His last 2 runs have been eye-catching when finishing well in stronger races than today having not got the best of starts both times. Should he get away he looks to be clearly coming back to form and although I’m late for the 14/1 that was available a few minutes ago 12/1 still looks plenty of value.

2 Points win 12/1 various

Heyward Girl has some decent course and distance form with a win last year in an ordinary conditions event. She had a very poor run 2 starts ago but looked reasonable enough last time when getting outpaced over 5 furlongs. This trip here should bring out the best in her and a return to last year form would give her a great chance of this mark.

1 Point win 25/1 Boyles/Betfred/Skybet

Tuscan Gold gave us a fair bit of exitement when clear with 2 furlongs left in his race, but got caught in the last furlong to finish 4th, which was grand for the advised 10 place on betfair for the place. Spice Fair never seemed to be trying and our other runner Space War was a non runner.

Newbury 3:25

I’m going to go with 2 huge outsiders here with a min bet on each. Spice Fair ran a superb race at Ascot in the Ascot Stakes, and has travelled well in his subsequent races but hung badly left each time. He’s worth a risk that he may straighten up today and if he does he can run well of this mark. In addition Tuscan Gold was a decent 3yo staying handicapper who ran well enough over hurdles without setting the world on fire. He came back to the flat with what looked a reasonable performance midfield in the same Ascot Stakes as my other selection, and a few pounds down and a shorter trip might give him a small squeak at a huge price. Betfair place price is for 4 places which looks decent value in this 15 runner handicap.

½ Point win/place Betfair 70/10 Tuscan Gold

½ Point win/place Betfair 70/9 Spice Fair

3:35 Newcastle

Space War was heavily supported last time out, and not getting the run of the race ran a pretty decent race at Beverly. He has blinkers on today and I think the drop in trip might suit him along with a big drop in mark. This is his lowest ever racing mark and he looks a big price on Betfair of 20. Im going against my Followed horse Able Master here and he doesnt look great value at 5/1 and wouldnt have the best record of putting 2 runs together.

1 Point win 20 Betfair

Seanie, is one that I’ve noticed a few times this year, particularly when a very fast finishing 3^rd at Fairyhouse in a conditions race. He wasn’t suited by the longer trip at Galway latest and if that run can be ruled out he is well capable of having a decent shot at this handicap. He looks like he will improve with the better ground. 11/1 With Skybet seems an oversight and well worth a bet

2 Points win Seanie 11/1 Skybet/Coral

Tagula Night’s course form in three here runs reads 332 and considering he is coming here of a very decent run last time out on turf, his price on Betfair at the moment of 15 looks well overpriced. He was 3^rd on his seasonal debut this year over this C&D in a much tougher race with a 5lbs higher rating. He has won of this mark on turf before and shouldn’t mind the slower than standard going tonight.

1 Point win 15 Betfair

Pravda Street is an old favourite of mine, and as poor as his last run was, this race looks very poor on the face of it. The ground is getting softer which is definatly to his advantage, he has run reasonably well over hurdles which augers well for his chance of staying the extra 2 furlongs today and he is down to his lowest mark ever (admittedly deservedly). They have put first time hood on today and if that revives anything of his old spark, this looks an ideal race. I cant let him go off at 18/1 in this race just in case he puts it together today, with a couple of factors in his favour.

1 Point win 18/1 Stan James/Coral

Immortal Verse was on of my favourite fillies last year, and seems a bit of a forgotten horse here. She would prefer it to be softer there is now doubt but in my view she is clearly second best over a mile here behind Excelebration. She won this race last year beating Goldicova and although she had a poor first run she had a poor start to the season last year and then kicked into top gear with 2 Group 1 wins and 3^rd behind Frankel & Excelebration. She is currently 14/1 without Excelebration with Paddy Power and that looks quite a few points too big. Moonlight Cloud is a huge danger but she is also needs softer ground and is unproven over this trip.

2 Points w/o FAV 14/1 Paddy Power “Link included”

Almost Laughably bad, with 3 near last place finishes. Not a lot of confidence going into yesterday as ive never really picked much in that Shergar Cup..

Ill update the stats later today Pricewise had a 5/1 winner..

Newmarket 3:00

Noble Citizen is one I’ve selected a few times in the past, and I generally like to select him when he is not popular as he’s fairly inconsistent. But his year he has had 2 very decent runs, particularly in the International when he was a good 6^th and before that a good 2^nd in a similar race to tomorrows of the same mark with the same 5lbs claimer on. He came good this time last year after a poor couple of runs and will need to do that here as he was particularly poor last time. He is well capable of getting involved at this mark and 21 on Betfair is certainly too big.

1 Point win 21 Betfair

Ascot 2:05

Stone Of Folca came back with a bang in the Dash at Epson and despite the big rise in weights I still feel he has a bit to offer when conditions are in his favour. He was poor in the Kings Stand but the ground was too soft for him. There was a decent amount of improvement in the King George last week when finishing midfield in what was a hot race, not getting the best of runs in the finish. He is 18/1 in a few places and that has the look of value getting his good-firm ground.

1 Point win 18/1 Bet365/Stan James

Ascot 3:15

Classic Colori is off the lowest mark ever here, and with a half decent run in a good race last time out, I think he might be capable of springing a surprise here and a very decent price. It is a significant step up in trip but he has had the look of one that could do with a step up and I’ll take a gamble at a big looking 20/1 in a few places.

1 Point win 20/1 Ladbrokes and others