2:30

There looks to be a significant chance that there could be a few shocks in this race as the fav is drawn on the wing and I’m not convinced by many here. Cougar Mountain  wants a really quick 1 mile on good/firm and that is I’m what he will get today . On this years form he would appear to have no chance but he has run good races in stronger groups 1 than this before and 50/1 is value .

1 point ew 50/1 Sky / Vc / lads 

 

3:40

Cotai Glory will have only 1 big target this year and that is today . He was second for us last year at a huge price and is available again at a big looking 33/1 with 4 places .  If he has normal improvement from 4-5 and also finds a couple of pounds on faster ground he has a decent chance here . 33/1 is value for race form here over the years .

1 point ew 4 places 1/4 365 33/1 1/5 various 

 

4:20

Surprise surprise , this is the easiest pick of the week . Lancaster Bomber is about 6/4 to place here on decent ground and 25/1 is silly .

2 points ew 25/1 1/4 365 25/1 1/5 generally

5:00

Suegioo looks the classiest horse in this race and with it being such a tight handicap he isn’t giving much weight to anything here . He looks a near certainty to be in the first 5 places . Both his group form last year and gradual improvement this year in handicaps makes a strong case for him here . 22/1 with 5 places seems too big.

2 points ew 22/1 5 places lads/ sky 20/1 paddy

3:05

Us Navy Flag wasn’t that far behind Brother Bear in Ireland after showing speed early on ground that would be too soft . If he gets the usual improvement fir far ground he is certainly bred to take a hand here at a huge price . I think it’s somewhat significant that he is coming at all as he won’t be a pacemaker in this race .

1 point ew 50/1 4 places Generally .

4:00 Doncaster

These sprinters is a game of trying to catch the graph at the right combination of price / mark and the point of improved form . The luck factor is huge in these races so a big price is essential . Today’s roll of the dice is Aspan Sam . He has been  running ok but not setting the world on fire for the last 18 months , and accordingly has dropped to a winnable mark . He has looked to have been improving with his 2 runs this year and maybe today is chance . 16/1 in this race looks value. If he shows any improvement he won’t be far away .

1 point win 16/1 generally

2:50 cork

pious Alexander looks worth a shot here at a big price . His 2 yo race is really good and the comparable form puts him right in the picture . 16/1 looks value .

1 point win lads 16/1 14/1 generally

 

 

Line of reason swooped late to give us another big Saturday winner at 16/1

 

3:10 Musselburgh

Line of Reason has always taken a few runs to get into form and I think he ran well in the Dash when losing places late. If he is better for that run he can get involved here of a workable mark. I picked Move in Time for the dash and he was eye-catching enough to be interested here at a huge price.

1 Point win Line of Reason 20/1 vc/coral/lads

1 Point win Move in Time 28/1 vc/lads 25/1 generally

Connacht National

 

8:20 Roscommon

My Irish form isn’t the greatest in all honesty but I can’t resist a bet here on Damut. He has some classy form in comparison to most of these and although he was poor last time out over a shorter trip hopefully that will have put him right for this race. He looks like he needs the step up and 25/1 is value .

1 Point EW 25/1 4 Places generally

2:45 Auteuil

I’ll start this my saying I hope Shaneshill wins this as he is one of my favourite horses but for value here One Track Mind is the clear pick. This race doesn’t look as strong as it has in the past and I think there is nothing between the 4 raiders here. One track mind is a certain stayer goes on soft ground and I think this race will suit him. 12/1 is certainly too big here. He actually looks more of a 7/1 shot.

2 Points win 12/1 Generally

3:30 Nottingham

Huntsmans Close has a decent record fresh and is an in and out performer anyway so his two poor runs at the end of last year don’t really worry. He is on a mark here to get involved if he is on a going day. 16/1 is a big enough price in this race to make the risk worthwhile.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

2:55 Haydock

Cosmic Chatter has a few interesting runs of soft and heavy ground and looks to me as if he may be better on this type of surface. He did catch the eye on his second last run in a similar race to this of a 6lbs higher mark. When running on well enough from the wrong side. The ground here tomorrow could be very soft and carrying 8:2 for a trainer in form 33/1 look huge.

2 Points EW 33/1 sky/hills/lads/coral

5:15 Haydock

Gabrials’s Kaka is taking a decent drop in class here of a mark a fair few pounds lower than he has won of before. He also has some very good runs on soft/heavy on the few chances he has run on it. He had an eye-catching run in the Balmoral handicap on heavy ground at Ascot when winning the wrong side of a mark of 102. 12/1 looks great value

1 Point win 12/1 Ladbrokes / Coral 11/1 Elsewhere  

5:25 Newmarket

Munnaashid ran a fair bit better than his finishing position indicated on his seasonal reappearance last time out. He got bumped and held in all the way up the straight and had to give up. This mark looks lenient enough and he had some decent form in Ireland for Dermot Weld. I think he is going to get involved here at up to 33/1 is too big.

1 Point EW 33/1 Lads 28/1 Generally

7:25 haydock

Monsieur Joe might have better than 14/1 chance here . A lot of the field might not act on this ground and he has proven soft form . He is better that 14/1 to come back to form .

1 point win 14/1 generally

4:25 Listowel

Turn over Sivola just can’t be too far away here of this mark after an eye-catching run last time out. I spotted him in this race looked up at the prices and was somewhat shocked to see 14/1 available so it’s certainly value. His UK form puts him about 8 lbs well in here I think.

1 Point win 14/1 365/vc/coral/boyles

French Derby 3:15

We’ve already gone with Taj Mahal at a silly price of 66/1 but I think that Orderofthegarter is also a mental price now at 25/1. Good ground and the longer trip is definitely going to be up this horses street. On for he is close to or even better than some of the horses than ran yesterday, and although AOB’s record in this race isn’t quite as good 25/1 is just too good to ignore as he is at most a 14/1 shot. I don’t think the drift mean anything as they all drifted yesterday and ran well. It might be a plus as it might mean they don’t know which one Is best.

1.5 Points EW 25/1 Lads/coral/boyles

4:40 Chantilly

Rangali has won this race before , and has had a light season so far, probably with the aim of coming here in form. He broke my heart 2 years ago when he was a confident selection for the Abbey a 28/1 but literally got collared  on the line. On his day he is better than most of these but will need luck in running as always. 14/1 is about 5-6 points too big.

2 Points win 14/1 Sky/Lads/Coral

Perth 4:15

Valadom has his conditions here today and i think he has a chance of staying in front around here. He always travel’s well but doesn’t really stay marathon trips.  He is a big price to stay in front at 22/1

1 Point win 22/1 stars/188 and 20/1 Generally

The thing that has kept up alive on the flat for as long as i can remember worked again for us yesterday. 40/1 was just a silly price about a well bred AOB trained horse who was a huge eye-catcher in a trial race.

I think id be loosing a fortune on the flat if it wasn’t for these fairly regular silly priced horses.

Qualify 100/1 , Brave Anna 50/1 and now Wings of Eagles at 40/1 in the last 2 years.