5:00 National

Arbe de Vie is as confident a pick as I could have in this 30 runner race . He was one of my naps at the Cheltenham festival and was getting into the race when he slipped up 3 out . I think he will certainly be placed here if he gets around . Paul Townsend is on today. He just looks a class animal that is on a nice mark due to things not going his way over fences so far.

2.5 points ew 5 places 20/1 365/VC

 

Im also going to go with a speculative bet on my aintree selection Stellar Notion . He looked to hate the fences there and was pulled up early . I don’t think it would be taken lightly by the trainer to have him out again and on his other form this season 50/1 looks massive

1 point ew 6 places sky/paddy 50/1

5:30 Haydock

Azure Fly is in here of a decent mark, on good ground ,over the right trip and  in a weaker race. He looks one of the more likely winners here and 11/1 looks significantly too big in my eyes.

2 Points win 11/1 Generally

3:50 Haydock

Lagavara catches the eye here of what look a generous mark. Compared to runs against Poppy Kay before she is really well in here. She hasn’t had a chance to run on decent ground and a slight step up in trip should help. 11/1 looks overpriced

2 Points win 11/1 Generally

3:15 Haydock

Eyes of a tiger should be suited by this race and I’m hopeful he may have ben readied for a crack at this. He has run well in a few decent looking races and will be going off in front. His 7lbs claimer looks a decent jockey with a good strike record and 20/1 looks value.

1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

1:45 Aintree

Leoncavallo interests  me here at a huge price, as I think he might be suited be a flat 3 miles here on good ground. He’s on a nice mark and if he can recapture any of his good form hell be in the firing line here. He’s worth a shot at 66/2

1 Point EW 66/1 6 Places SKY/5 Places Paddy

The bet365 offer is simply too good to ignore when you can get €250 on with all the place part returned immediately which effectively doubles the price. All these selections should be backed with that offer.

I’m going to start with the realisation that there is only 1 class horse in this race and despite the fact that More of that is one of the favorites I still think he is value at 14/1 generally or 12/1 with the 365 offer. Even his Gold Cup run would be easily enough to win this and he wasn’t over exerted near the finish when his chance was gone. Every time I look at the weights here I just can’t get away from him, especially when he seems to be improving significantly in his last 2 runs. This should be ideal for him. Normally id never go EW at this price but its free and if he gets around he will be placed at least.

My original second pick for this is Stellar Notion. He is a very good jumping prominent racer that has been in very good form this year in top races. Compared to some of the marks in this race his looks manageable and if he stays here, which is in fairness a big question mark, he will give us a great spin for our money. 50/1 with the 365 offer is very good value.

Measureofmydreams was in the process of getting to a decent finish at the festival last month when getting badly hampered 2 out. He looks to have been trained with this race in mind and looks well treated compared to some of the others here. He is a definite stayer with a very light season this year and will improve here.

 

2 Points EW More of that 12/1 Bet365 –  2 Points win 14/1 elsewhere

1 Point EW Stellar Notion 50/1 Bet365 – 1 Point win 80/1 Coral/betfair/blacktype

1 Point EW Measurefmydreams 40/1 BET365 – 1 Point EW 50/1 6 places pp/vc

 

Earlier in the week i put this up

 

He is 80/1 with the Bet365 offer and 100/1 6 places VC. That is massive value

 

4:05 Aintree

Bright new dawn is stepping back up in trip here and has been running well all this year for his new trainer. He strikes me as one that will take to this test. He came good at this time last year winning a very good handicap at Punchestown of a  1lb higher mark and also caught the eye last time out in the Grand Annual when probably caught for pace near the end after traveling really well. I think 40/1 is a huge price with 6 places for a very consistent horse.

I’m also going for Quite By Chance who started the season in top form and if he can improve after his little break and run in the Grand Annual he could also run a big race here at a big price.

1 Point EW 40/1 Bright new dawn 6 places Paddy 33/1 6 places Sky

1 Point ew 33/1 Quite By Chance 6 places Sky/Paddy

 

2:20 Aintree

I think 9/2 is just too big about Moon Racer here. He just never got going in the champion hurdle and this race is light years weaker. He should be able to travel well here and if he is anywhere near 100% he will be hard to pass in the finish. He will go off shorter. I have a sneaky suspicion that American Gigolo will improve here and I’m going to go with a small place bet at 16/1

2 Points win Moon Racer 9/2 stan/32/888

½ Point place  American Gigolo 16/1 Sky/365

3:25

I’m not convinced that Gods Own is really in top form this year and to my eye Sub Lieutenant may want a sterner test. This race should be the just right for Josses Hill. He has looked better than ever this year apart from the Ryanair, which really doesn’t suit him. This race over all looks very tight with any of the field holding a chance. 14/1 looks value as I think he is more of an 8/1 shot here.

1 Point win 14/1 Paddy/Betfair/Betbright

4:40 Aintree

I think this flat track 3 miles on good ground is really going to suit strong flat stayer Beyond Conceit . He was superb in the Supreme despite it probably being too short a trip. He is certainly going to travel well here and give us value for our bet at a big looking 16/1, considering none of the top 3miles novices are here.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

1:40 Aintree

This is a tough race but I like the look of unexposed Crievehill who ran a decent race in the County when it is probably just too good a race for him. He is on a nice mark here now in this weaker race over a longer trip and I think that will suit him. His 3^rd behind Neon Wolf and Elgin reads well considering the time of that race and the fact he stayed on well at the end. He looks value at 33/1

1 Point EW  33/1 Generally

Bedrock ran a grate race to be 3rd advised at 66/1 EW to get us of to a very good start.

We were a touch unlucky in the Foxhunters with our 40/1 selection finish 6th after leading up to a mistake at the last

Aintree 2:20

I’m drawn to Bedrock here as a typical Aintree horse that hasn’t been to Cheltenham ,He did catch the eye on his only run when badly hampered by Charlie Parks falling in the Adonis. He wouldn’t have been far behind Flying Tiger if he got a clear run and although he is worse of at the weights here he should improve for that run and 66/1 looks very big.

1 Point EW 66/1 Generally

Aintree 2:50

Cue card could dance home here and I’ll certainly be cheering him home but I think the value may lie elsewhere. I don’t really understand the confidence behind Empire of Dirt as he was very poor at the festival considering the 2m5 there might not be a lot different than the 3m here.  I have a sneaky feeling Smad Place may get into a rhythm here and might not be that easy to catch around here. The same could be said for Bristol de Mai but he isn’t value at the prices.

1 Point win 18/1 Betfair 16/1 Paddy

Aintree 4:05

Darwins Fox is a classy good ground performer who also jumps well on a going day. He has been steadily improving in hunters lately and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get involved here at a big price.  I’ve missed a few points from his earlier price but 40/1 with 4 places is decent value on ratings alone

1 Point EW 40/1 4 places 365/hills/paddy and others

I’m going to get in a bit early with my first selection here as I think sense will prevail shortly and he will shorten to about 33/1 before the end of the week. Bishops Road is a certain stayer here, and although he fell at his first attempt at these fences, he has only had 1 go and some of his form even this year reads well in comparison to a lot of this field. He has given weight to a lot of those up the top of the market and is much better in here after only 3 runs this year. At 9 he is the right age and with under 11 stone he has too many positives to ignore. I’m also pretty sure he can act on decent ground and if the amount of soft that is in the ground stays there, all the better. I think he will not be out of the places if he stands up (which is obviously a big if the same as every horse at every price) .

2 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy/VC  66/1 5 places sky 50/1 5 places elsewhere

3:20 Doncaster

We will keep stakes low for the flat for most of the year but its hard to resist a big handicap like this . Bogart improved a lot towards the end of last  year has some very good course form of higher marks and has run well first time out a few times before. He is also drawn on the right side and 22/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 22/1 Generally

3:00 Doncaster
Kool Company is and interesting sort for this race. He looks a possibly top notch horse a couple of years ago and has some good wins of a break to his name. This race could be an ideal opportunity for him to get back to form.
1 Point win 11/1 Generally

A superb dropping him on the line ride from Ryan Moore started us of a lot better for the flat than we have finished the Jumps. We were also unlucky with Gabriel who got left at the start of the Lincoln but still finished 3rd.

He’s on fire! Three races, three wins for Ryan Moore as Kool Kompany wins the Doncaster Mile in the shadow of the post at @DoncasterRaces: pic.twitter.com/8KL8ACNOSE

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) April 1, 2017