1:30 Musselburgh

Yorkist ran into a couple of big improvers last season on decent ground and although he has form on soft I think he will be suited by the better ground today. He has been dropped to a decent mark after a couple of poor performances on heavy and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was a fair bit better today. I think the 11/1 on offer here is a bit of value and well get a decent run for our money.

1 Point win 11/1 365/vc/stan/hills/betway

This ran a great race to be 2nd .  

3:00 Musselburgh

Zaidiyn is a horse I’ve noted a few times being unlucky and he certainly was here on New Year’s Day when coming with a very good run only to make a terrible mistake at the last. He would certainly have been 2^nd that time and is 5 lbs. better off with the winner here, who is favourite for this race. That should bring him right into the firing line here and were getting a decent looking 11/1 because of a poor run next time when he didn’t get home on soft ground. I’d be shocked if he didn’t go off about 7/1 here and he is well worth that.

2 Points win 11/1 Generally

Ran another solid race to be just done for a place in 4th. He got a bit far behind and never looked likely to win.

The figures for far for 2016 are up on the site and we are currently up 34 points to advised and 32 to BSP from 44 points invested

Big 4 point Ante-Post NRNB bet just sent for the festival.

For anyone still interested in the 1 month free trial on my site. That offer will end tomorrow at 11:00 am.

Leopardstown 3:40

This race has a strange look about it with some possible non stayers near the top of the market. I’m going to go with Sir Des Champs here at a very big price. If he can recover some form he looks to have a huge chance of at least placing here. He was well supported last time out but a couple of poor jumps and tiredness after put paid to his chances. He is very likely to improve for that run and if he does the 25/1 on offer here in this race is going to look huge. He is still only 10 and fairly obviously has form in the bag before his long break that would make that price seem silly.

1 Point EW 25/1 Boyles/Paddy

Looked to struggle here and just isn’t back to anything like his old form

Sandown 3:30                              

Unioniste on the face of it could win this by 10 lengths if the handbrake is off today but with the national weights out in only 10 days’ time they would simply be mad to be ready to win this. I’ve gone through the field and decided that nothing can win here so where does that leave us. I’m going to go with the outsider of the field here in Seventh Sky. He has been very consistent this year and despite the fact that it looks like the jockey has got of him for another here I haven’t and ounce of interest in any of the others here. 14/1 looks like a small bit of value.

1 Point win 14/1 vc/stan/coral/hills

Struggled for the last 3rd of the race, probably had too much weight.

Leopardstown 3:05

Vercingetorix was a bit of an eye catcher last time out in a much better race than this of a much higher mark.  He simply has to be close here in this race and 10/1 looks a bit of value. He has a few too many 2nds to be confortable but the combination of weaker race and lower mark here are compelling.

1 Point win 10/1 365/boyles/fred

Backed into 6/1 and came there with a chance but he is just to slow in the finish

Lingfield 2:55

I apologise for sticking a big dog race selection up in the middle of the NH season but Captain Cat looks value here at 10/1 . He ran a good race last time out when coming from the back to be 2^nd and the step up on trip here should suit judging by his close 5^th in the winter derby last year. 10/1 looks at least 3 points too big.

1 Point win 10/1 Betfair/Hills

Was backed into 6/1 and went far to wide on the final bend to be close up in 3rd at the finish

Sandown 3:00

Little Boy Boru looks to have a decent shot of placing at least here judging by the weight turnaround with some near the top of the market here from their runs in the Lanzarote . He is a dour stayer but has some decent for in good races last year and started this year out pretty good as well here. 20/1 is too big and if he can improve for his last run at all he should be able to get involved here at the finish

1 Point EW 20/1 generally

Plugged on for 4th, so just outside the places.

Punchestown 4:05

Folsom Blue won this race before off admittedly a lower mark but does have plenty of good performances in better races than this of around this mark. He was a bit of a disappointment last time out in the Tyestes but he had 2 slow jumps down the back last time and had too much to do to get back into it. I wouldn’t be surprised if he performed a fair bit better here. His 3^rd in the Paddy Power was a great run and anything near that would be good enough here even of this mark. 8/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Pt win 8/1 Generally

Was a disappointment and plugged on for 3rd

Punchestown 3:00

I fancy Twinlight will run better this time that he has this year. He travelled well last time until the 2^nd last and wasn’t overly exerted when his chance had gone and this soft ground 2 mile race would be right up his street if he could get back to some form. He shouldn’t beat the fav here but I really fancy him to be 2^nd and 6/1 w/o fav on Ladbrokes is certainly a couple of points too big.

1 Point 6/1 Ladbrokes w/o Fav

Did run better and just faded near the end having looked like having a chance to the last

Punchestown 3:30

Mtada Supreme ran a decent race at Cheltenham last time out and this step back in trip should really suit. He is very consistent in these races but probably isn’t quick enough to win. He really won’t be far away from placing here and I reckon that the 8/1 an d 7/1 to place here is at least 2-3 points too big.

1 Point Place 8/1 Paddy Power 7/1 Ladbrokes Betfair

Ran well to finish 5th just outside the places

Today is a big day for our Cheltenham handicaps hopefuls. I’ve 3 horses running today that I fancy at big prices in march and kind of hoping they won’t do something silly today and feck up marks and prices.

Cheltenham 4:10

Chieftens Choice ran with great purpose in a decent race on his second last run at Doncaster in Heavy ground over this trip but ran far too free over a longer trip next time out and didn’t stay. This soft ground 2 miles should be right up his street if he doesn’t go mad in front early. He has a nice light weight for a front runner and it may be difficult for enough horse to pass him here to knock him out of the places making 40/1 here great value.

1 pt EW 40/1 VC/Ladbrokes

Non Runner Unfortunately after being backed into 16/1

Cheltenham 1:50

The Giant Bolster is one of my favourite horses and although I’m kind of hoping  he won’t go mad here and ruin his mark for a cut at the 3m mile handicap at the festival of a good mark. He has won this race on heavy ground in the past and was a real eye-catcher for me in the Hennessy when just getting tired near the end after a great spin. In fairness he will need a couple of these not to perform to get into the places but anything can happen in this ground and 50/1 is worth the risk fir a small min bet just in case.

½ Point EW 50/1 365/sky/sporting/888/hills ¼ with 365

Ran well to finish 4th and on my radar if he’s a big price for a festival handicap

Cheltenham 3:35

I fancy Guitar Pete over fences in the Novice Handicap on day 1 of the festival at a big price hopefully, and I don’t know why he is here over 3 miles and hurdles but he is a class horse on his day and a grade 1 winner on heavy ground. Ill have a min bet at the 25/1 available without the fav from both Coral and Betfair just in case of the remote going through the TV if he runs well at a giant price

½ Point win 25/1 w/o FAV Coral / Betfair

Had a nice spin and travelled well for most of the race but will be much better suited to good ground and hopefully the novice handicap chase on day 1 of the festival

Doncaster 1:30

Just Cameron looked very good against Un Des Seaux at Punchestown last year and if we can forgive him his seasonal opener at Sandown when he got tired, he can  get back to last season’s form here and be right in the firing line at a decent looking 10/1

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Ran really well from the front and rallied to finish 2nd. I think he’ll be suited by both good ground and a fast run race. Queue the Grand Annual but he’d have to be a big price to interest me on that day

 

 

 

 

 

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Ascot 3:35

Dare me looked unlikely to be able to stay the soft ground 3 miles last time out and this drop back in trip along with a few pounds given back here could get him in the picture. He seemed to travel well last time and if he strips fitter here and crucially is trying today he might just well stand a decent chance here at a huge price. I think 33/1 is worth the risk. He also gave a very good performance on heavy ground in the past.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally ¼ odds with 365/stan/lads

This bet looked on when I heard Tanya from Channell 4 say every horse was covered in the field by the 180 left in the scoop 6 except for Dare Me :)..  He traveled well and ground out the win in great style for a huge payout..

Ascot 2:25                                                              

This is a very tight race with almost everything having a chance but I’m taken with a possible improver for a step up in trip and softer ground here in Monsieur Gibraltar. He has a couple of decent wins in France on heavy ground and  after 1 poor run and another with some promise he has had a wind operation and should really be suited by this step up. 18/1 looks a nice bit of value.

1 Point win 18/1 Generally

Pulled up 4 from home 

Haydock 1:00

Bold Sir Brian ran ok when miles out of his depth in the Fixed Brush at Haydock , considering it was his first run for a year. He has been dropped another 5lbs here and in a much weaker race he might just stand a decent chance here of this mark. He also has form on heavy ground which will be critical around here. 25/1 looks well worth a spin.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally.

Backed into 16/1 and travelled well unitl just before the 3rd last where he fell.

Haydock 3:15

It’s not like me to go near the top of the market but Fingal Bay should be a strong favourite here he has actually been dropped 4 lbs this year with nothing but top class runs and I’m finding it very difficult to find anything to beat him here. 5/1 looks value as id have him around 3/1 fav here.

1 Point win 5/1 Generally

Ran well to be placed but never really looking like the winner

Cheltenham Ante-post

I was very taken with Sprinter Sacre’s last run just as proof he should be over that heart problem as he showed no signs of that there. My gut is UDS has a lot to prove and hasn’t beaten anything really yet. That isn’t to say he won’t but I’m not sure it a given that he will. Even if he wins today I think Sprinter will be much better suited to the decent ground more than likely in March and 4/1 looks a very decent price NRNB. In my mind even if UDS wins easily today 4/1 would be about the right price in that situation, but if UDS doesn’t Sprinter will probably be favourite and feck it I’m banging on about him enough to be happy with 4/1 now.

2 Points win 4/1 NRNB  Paddy Power/Hills/Betfair

Ill be the first to say my total confidence in Sprinter took a huge dent there. I’m way more positive about UDS’s run there and the commentators on C4. He ran well taking care of his jumping which is no harm and sped away in the end. Looks a superstar.

 

Tyestes Chase Gowran Thursday

I’ve been waiting for this race and my certain pick here for a while. I think if My Murphy repeats last year run of the same mark in the same conditions he has to go very close here. He has more or less the exact same preparation as last time and the form of last year race is stellar to say the least. He was 19 length’s clear of the rest just 8 lengths behind Djakadam when only in receipt of 6 lbs. the 3^rd and 4^th Goonyella and Gallant Oscar have surly only added to the form line after that race and surly the trainer has this as his target for this year. 20/1 is way too big and 1m only going 1pt EW here as its antepost, if that price stays around until there is NRNB will be adding another 1pt EW.

1 PT EW 20/1 Bet365/Lads/sporting/Stan

What a performance, he was prominent from the start which racecourse well and held of the hot favorite for a great win.  ! year in the making and i only had 1pt EW deserves a bit of a rap on the knuckles 

 

 

What a finish in the Thyestes as My Murphy goes one better than last year and wins @gowranpark https://t.co/MUgG28JqFV

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) January 21, 2016

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Leopardstown 3:00

Cause of Causes looks to have a decent shout here of what looks a somewhat lenient mark for a horse who ran well in the national and won at the Cheltenham festival. He is over a shorter trip here but this will be a bit of a slog and he should improve for his mid field run in the paddy power. 14/1 is a bit bigger than I would expect.

1 Point win 14/1 generally    

Shocking and clearly only out for a spin

Leopardstown 2:25

Waxies Dargle ran into a couple of improving 4yo’s in the Greatwood hurdle but that 3rd is probably the best piece of form here and with the additional 7lbs claimer on here he should be right in the firing line. He was poor in his next race but he can be forgiven that run and 25/1 with 6 places with the sponsors Coral looks a great value bet.

1 Point EW coral 25/1 6 places 25/1 5 places elsewhere.

Our coming last trixie had another candidate here he travelled well but weakended. 

Leopardstown 12:50

I’m not one to baulk at a huge price but I’m just too tempted here by Kiera Royale at 100/1 here. She ran a  decent race in her first maiden hurdle after pulling a bit too hard she tired into 8th. But if she can improve on that and settle a bit better there looks to be a small possibility she might just get involved in the places here and not a lot of justification is needed to have a bet at 100/1. We’ll go for a min EW bet just in case.

½ Point EW 100/1 Betfair sportsbook 66/1 elsewhere.

This ran a  great race go get us excited coming around to the straight travelling well enough. She finished 5th so close but no cigar.

Leopardstown 1:50

Aminibad is a fairly inconsistent horse but has plenty of form that would indicate that he’d have a shot here of this mark with a good 7lbs claimer on today. If he can get to the front he may well stay there and 20/1 looks a decent price. Top weight isn’t ideal but with the claim taken into account he has a workable weight.

1 Point win 20/1 generally

Less said the better never going well and didn’t stay to get out Trixie of lasts up easily.

 

Warwick 3:35
I can’t get excited about anything at a high price here and keep coming back to Midnight Prayer. He was a huge eye-catcher on his first run for a long time last time out and he looks the best treated here. The stable jockey has gone with the top weight which is a bit of a worry but we have a very decent 3lbs claimer on which should count over this extended trip. I thought he would be favourite here so I’ll take a bit of the 9/1 available.
1 Point win 9/1 sky/888/betway/32

This was heartbreaking he looked the winner jumping the last and must have surly traded very short in running but got out stayed in the finish.

Warwick 3:00

Open Eagle proved he is a very smart horse on heavy ground on his last run on the flat and I’m as sure as I can be that this test will be much more to his liking than his pretty decent run against Altior last time out. He has been improving with each race and could really sail though this ground. 13/2 looks a big price against a fair amount of horses that haven’t acted on this type of ground before. The favorite could be anything but is very short.

1 Point win 13/2 Stan James / Coral

He traded very short in running here as he made up a huge amount of ground to catch the longtime leader towards the last but ran out of steam after his efforts.

These were 2 vomit inducing picks as both looks certain winner’s at teh last and both didn’t pull through.