Going with a gut feeling selection here in Dickie’s Lad. He has been plummeting in the weights, and in my view showed a little more in a hot race last time out at York behind Tax Free. The step back to 6 furlong’s will help and he seems to have a great draw in 20. I’ve just missed a bit of 25/1 that was available but he still looks a bit of value on 20/1 in 3-4 places.

1 Point win 20/1  ToteSport/Betfred/Coral/Sjames

Going for a small bet in this despite the difficulty in coming up with something. For some reason when I looked at the race first Noble Storm stood out at a huge price. I had liked the look of his run behind Ortensia at Goodwood and in this race where really Sole Power should win there is a decent chance of a surprise in the placing’s. I don’t really like EW only 3 places so im going with a min bet at 33/1 W/O Fav with Coral.

1/2 Point win 33/1 Noble Storm W/O Fav

Going for one a big price here in Marine Commando, he ran an eye-catching race here over c&d here on his 2^nd last run when he got left behind at the start and has taken a drop in class here. He is down to a very enticing mark 8 lbs lower than his last win. He may in fact be getting ready for a shot at the race he won last year in a couple of weeks but he’s worth a small bet at the current 25/1 with Paddy Power.

1 Point in 25/1 Paddy Power

White Frost, has been a popular pick since his second in a very good 2^nd at York in similar conditions to these. He has run decently in his last 2 races without setting the world on fire. This race is a step down in class and more importantly doesn’t look to me to be a very strong race. I’m having difficulty finding many contenders and the 11 on Betfair about this selection looks to be very good value. I can see him going off more like 6/1.

1 Point win 11 Betfair

Only one selection today and a great result with a 2 pt bet on Society Rock coming of in style in the Haydock Sprint Cup at 10/1. He proved himself the best British Sprinter today.

 

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Posting this on my phone so short write-ups

Society rock looks well overpriced at 10/1 and despite the faster ground not being in his favour he is well capable of winning this.

He probably has the second best form in the race and if he can get back to near his best he’ll have a great chance..

2 points win 10/1 various places.

Sandown 4:00

I’m going to go with 2 horses in this at a decent price, that have potential that hasn’t been filled yet and haven’t had a lot of racing this year, which can be an advantage at this time of the season. Pekan Star looked like a possible Group Horse winning a very good 3yo handicap a couple of years ago. He has been a bit disappointing since then, but after not looking right on his seasonal debut this year has had a decent break and a blow out as pacemaker a month ago. He is down to a mark he can hopefully be competitive off and the odds of him fulfilling some of his potential are a lot better than his current Betfair price of 48 which looks a nice bit of value. The other selection ill make is Fulgar who although was poor last week over too long a trip, looks to be on a nice mark back in trip. It seems significant that he is out again in 7 days from his last run, after being missing most of this year. He is 19 on Betfair at the moment and that looks worth a small bet.

Pekan Star 1 Pt Win Betfair 46 – Confidence Factor 1/5

Fulgar  1 pt win Betfair 19 – Confidence Factor 2/5

2:15 Sandown

All of Catfish’s form is on Good-Firm ground over 5 furlongs, and she is back to near her mark at the start of this year when she ran 2 superb races in those condition’s. Since then she has been disappointing over 6 furlongs twice on slightly softer ground and I think back to her best trip and ground tomorrow she could have a very decent shot at returning to form at a big looking 14/1.

2 Points win 14/1 in a few places incl Paddy Power  – Confidence Factor 3/5

3:05 Chester

Grissom is one ive selected a few times lately. Despite have a few zeros after his name in his last few runs, I think he has shaped well in very good races without getting the breaks required in running. He is back here on a mark just 2 lbs higher than a very good c&d performance in May behind Pintura and also his win in the Scottish Stewards Cup. He has a nice inside draw and hasn’t always tried to come from miles of the pace like he has done lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was up in the van most of the way round here and he looks value to repay a bit of faith at 20/1 currently on Betfair

1 Point win 21 Betfair – Confidence Factor 2/5

4:20 Chester

Head Space has been running well this year with 2 wins. He has been very popular in most of his runs and too low a price to select most of the time. But he was poor enough last time, mostly because he didn’t get room at the critical time and was eased towards the finish at Ripon. He is a few pounds below some of those good runs and with a 3lbs claimer on he should have a decent shout in this race, although as usual in Chester he will need a bit of luck given his running style. He is worth the risk at 28 on Betfair.

1 Point win 28 Betfair Confidence Factor 1/5

Having looked back on my selections so far it is clear I need to steer clear of a few things, and concentrate on the big Saturday handicaps. This will mean a lot less selections but hopefully a better ROI. Sprint Handicaps in general are very profitable along with big Saturday handicaps, everything else is a loser.

La Collina’s run in the English 1000 was eye catching after another viewing, she finished well after a poor run through in the last 2 furlongs. That was on soft enough ground and although she was poorer since in the Irish version, this race has a lot of Fillies that don’t like to win and the Fav Manieree is one her seasonal debut, difficult and all as she should be to beat. I think La Collina should be second favourite here and 7/1 looks value. She is additionally available at 4/1 Without the Fav which also looks a decent price.

3 Points 4/1 Ladbrokes 4/1 W/O Fav..    

The Cheka looks to be well clear of these in the conditions. He will love the softer ground and really although there are a few unexposed types in this race they would need to be very good to have any shout at all here. His last 2 G1 performances are his best yet and 9/4 looks considerably too big to me in this race.

4 Points win 9/4 Various