Apache for me is a totally overlooked horse here. I was happy enough with his last run when he was way too far back and came with a decent run to get to 5th in the end at Haydock. He looks sure to be helped by the step up in trip and he could well have a touch of class, that if he is on his game here his current price of 40/1 with betvictor could look huge. He was a good 3rd in the Melrose at york of 10lbs higher a couple of years ago and has been looking this year if he is building to a good performance. If that’s the case this race is surly his target. I think his place prospects are really strong.
1 Point EW 40/1 Betvictor
This race for me can be narrowed down a fair bit, to proven Group 1 Performers. I think the Fav is too short here, even though he may be the most likely winner a lot has to go right for him in this big field sprint, which makes his odds of 2/1 look far too short. I think Kingsgate Native should well show up best of the first 3 from the Temple Stakes again, as he didn’t have the best position and seemed to win despite being on the wrong site. Sole Power is well capable of winning this if everything goes right and in general I think that can happen for him at a better ratio than the 9/1 currently available. He didn’t get the best of rides last time having being played far too early. I just can’t have any of the others at prices near these 2, not that they won’t improve but they haven’t done it yet. Usually something will surprise here and get into a place and it’s hard to pin down one of the outsiders that can but I’m getting a gut feeling the Prohibit might just improve here at the scene of his best race and be competitive. I’m afraid it’s the scatter gun approach for me here, with small bets on the 3 above.
½ Point win on Betfair all 3
Sole Power 10.5
Kingsgate Native 16
George Vancover hasn’t been great this season but I think he may outrun his odds here tomorrow. Apart from the top 2 in the market a lot of the rest of the field have as many questions to answer as he does this year. Bet365 are standout on the Place only Market at 18/1 and I think that could well be value here, he looks more of a 12/1 shot to place to me.
1 Point Place Bet365 18/1
Ascot Favs Treble
I’m going to add in the First 3 Favs bet here now, as right now on Paddy Power it’s working out at 20/1 and that looks more like value than earlier today. Shea Shea is out to 3/1 making it a bit of value.
1 Point Treble Paddy Power Animal Kingdon Evens, Shea Shea 3/1, Dawn Approach 13/8 20/1 Total