Scanning trough this race looking for and angle and as soon as I had a look at Matthew Riley’s form he is a standout here of his mark. He was a very good 4th in the Bumper at Aintree in 2011, that race could not have worked out any better as its littered with very decent horses. He then just failed to catch Runswick Royal in a soft ground Newcastle novice hurdle, that horses is now rated 140+. He has had one blip in his last run, in which he stayed on after a mistake early on. He has a decent record fresh and is sure to be suited by the step up in trip and soft ground here. 33/1 is a massive price and worthy of a decent EW bet
2 Points EW 33/1 Bet Victor Stan James Betfair
Utopie Des Bordes has some top class form in France, that could translate well in to this type of race. She also has some very decent run at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet and also at Aintree. I’m hopeful that today’s race was the plan for her this year and with that in mind I’m ignoring her poor enough season opener. The Trip ground and possibly hurdles should be right up her street and she has nice racing weight of 11:00 here. 12/1 looks a nice bet of value.
1 Point win 12/1 Various
I’m going to have an additional saver on this race on an old favourite of mine in Restless Harry, he is off a ridiculously low mark albeit after a number of runs on unsuitable good ground and in the small hop that the plan is for a better run today he’s worth a small gamble at 48 on Betfair, more to avoid the annoyance of watching a decent run today with no money on at those odds.
1 Point win 48 Betfair 40/1 Generally
I was hoping that Long Run would hit 14/1 for this and I think he is being underestimated too much here. In fairness he was poor last time after a bad mistake but in general he has been a model of consistency. I think some of the horses here have been overrated on their for and the market looks wrong in a few ways. I would actually have Bobs Worth shorter than he is, Silviniaco looks about right, but I would think Dynaste Cue Card and Tidal Bay should be longer. All this adds up to 14/1 about Long Run being great value. If Bobs Worth isn’t 100% here I fancy that long Run may be the one to beat him.
2 Points EW Long Run 14/1 Bet Victor 888 Sporting
Silver by Nature obviously loves it around here is soft ground and proved his wellbeing at the end of last year just failing to give stones to a few decent animals at Punchestown. I went for him in that race and I see no reason not to go for him again here given the conditions. I would have expected him to be shorter that 16/1 and that looks decent value.
1 Point EW 16/1 Various.