Newmarket 4:20

Smoothtalkingrascal came alive last time out in the Epson Dash when a fast finishing 6th after a slow start. Up to that he had been pretty poor for a long time. He is off his lowest mark ever here and if he repeats that run here with the extra 3 lbs he has been reduced he won’t be far away. I thought the value would be gone after that run but 16/1 in this lesser race is great value. He is up against a possible Group horse in Double up but I’d be wary of any horse at near evens in these handicaps. There isn’t any w/o fav option at the time of writing.

1 Point Win 16/1 Generally.

This race has broken up considerably and I think paddy powers w/o fav market looks wrong. Kingsgate Choice which I was looking at this morning but decided against is 22/1 in the standard market and 20/1 in the w/o which looks value given the favourite here is 4/6. The way the market has broken up it looks decent value for this horse to come back to form. He was poor last time in a decent race but broke slowly. He was decent enough on his reappearance and of this mark could well get involved.

1 Point 20/1 w/o FAV Paddy Power