I’m afraid my eyes are drawn somewhat unsurprisingly down to the bottom of the betting for this race. I’ll go through my thought process for the laugh
- Blink Method (for anyone that’s read the book ) Mont Ras big price
- Couple of zeros after a long layoff, never worried me before
- David O’Meara big plus
- 7lbs claimer on of a decent mark, getting better
- Course form . Tick
- Very good strike Rate. Tick
This horse has looked in need of his 2 runs so far but with normal improvement and of his new mark with an additional 7lbs claimer on he can get competitive at a huge price.
With the possibility of Soft ground here tomorrow I’m going to add Penitent at a big price. He has been a bit of an underachiever this year but has run well when there is a bit of cut in the ground. His overall form is miles better on soft and of this mark (which is his lowest ever) he may well be able to get involved at a big looking 25/1. His general profile doesn’t look like a value EW bet and I’ll go for win only
1 Point win Mont Ras 33/1 VC/Coral/Betfair
1 Point win Penitent 25/1 Generally
Covert Love probably got the run of the race in the Irish oaks and I think there may not be a lot between her and Curvy this time. Curvy has been very solid all year and had to start chasing too early in that race which resulted in her getting only 3rd. She looks the most likely winner and the value in this race at 7.8 on Betfair. I would think she is more of a 4/1 shot here.
1 Point win 7.8 Curvy Betfair