Havisham has been running well in very decent staying handicaps this year without winning. The main reason I’m interested here is over this trip on the softish ground today he will certainly stay the trip looking at his run on soft over 2miles in a good Ascot Handicap 2 runs ago. He was a big disappointment last time out which is why he is now a big price for this but if we can forgive him that run he is weighted to get involved here with a 5lbs claimer on today. His placing chance looks very decent to me for a 33/1 shot and with a couple of bookies going the 5 places that the bet to make.
1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Hills
The more I look at the conditions of this race the more I keep coming back to Fields of Athenry. This horse looks a real stayer not just in the making but already. Rated 119 now (which may be a bit on the big side) with all the allowance’s he will be carrying only 9:03 with his very decent 5lbs claimers allowance. I’ve seen this type of horse been much shorter for these handicaps before and I think he should be a very solid favourite. The wide draw isn’t ideal but he may well have a fair bit in hand so hopefully it won’t be a deal breaker. There is a lot of very decent Handicappers with a NH background at the top of the betting and I’ll be cheering on Wicklow Brave if he wins, but they don’t look value at all here. 9/1 looks a very fair price and I’m pretty sure he will go of around the 6 mark at best.
2 Points win 9/1 888/32 8/1 generally
My other selection here is at the other end of the market John Reel has been running well in all the big staying handicaps this year without winning but this trip on softer ground may be about ideal for him and he has the advantage today of a very good 5lbs claimer on which might get him in the picture. He has soft ground form over hurdles and 66/1 with 5 places given his fairly consistent profile and style of running up with the pace he stands a very decent chance of placing here.
1 Point EW 66/1 5 Places totesport/coral/betfair
Hanseatic tics a couple of boxes for me in this race. He was a very decent looking horse a couple of years ago over 10 furlongs but only came back after over 2 years off lately. He has run twice over what is obviously too short a trip, hopefully with a race like this in mind. Hopefully over the right trip he will come back to life here at a huge price. 33/1 looks worth the risk
1 Point EW 33/1 VC/PP/Lads/Hills
Noble Storm has been gradually improving this year all the while dropping to a career low mark here. He also has a3lbs claimer on today and with the drop in class he may well be difficult to catch here. 12/1 looks a decent bet in this race with Chilworth Icon the obvious danger.
1 Point win 12/1 Generally