Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post NRNB
I got interested in Chieftains Choice the last time he was about to run a few weeks ago, when I felt he was a strong traveller on soft ground and was worth a shot in a small handicap hurdle at a big price of 40/1 .Soon after he was backed into 12/1 but was unfortunately withdrawn. When I saw him entered here it sparked my interest as he was pretty obviously a huge price. I had a look at his form again noticed he ran in this last year and had fallen. I said to myself if he was travelling well at the time I’ll be taking an interest here at the huge price. He fell 3 out when in front and travelling strongly (if a bit free).
It doesn’t need a lot of justification to take an interest in a horse at 50/1 and there is enough here in his form on soft/heavy and some of his maiden runs which looked very good. This race can suit a front runner and off his light weight I’m hopeful that he may be difficult enough to pass and stands a decent chance of placing if he is back on form (which looks likely with the decent amount of money for him last time)
1pt EW 50/1 5 places Sky/Paddy/Betfair
Poor run he was the first one in trouble.
Going through this field and ruling out anything near the top of the market as poor value in this type of race I keep settling on Ivan Grozny as the value here at a huge price. He looked a potential top class 4 yo and was disappointing when push came to shove at the end of that season until he beat a very good horse in Kitten Rock in his last race that year. He ran the type of race I like to see a horse run when back from a log break lately, in that he travelled well and just got tired coming down to the last. I’d be hopeful that he will be better this time and if he is that 50/1 is going to seem a big price for what could still be a high class horse. I wouldn’t be at all worried about jockey bookings as all Willies horses will be going with a chance.
1 Point EW 50/1 5 Places Paddy Power & Bet365
Came there with what looked a chance but weakened quickly, he probably needs a few pounds back and better ground