Silviniaco Conti is a fair bit ahead of everything here on any form bar his last run in the King George where he tried to lead from the start. This is likely his main target as he probably isn’t going to Cheltenham. I’d be surprised if he didn’t get back to form here in a weak enough grade 1. 11/4 generally or 3/1 with Betfair if you can get it looks great value to me here. Dynaste is a long way behind on form, Triolo Dalene could be a danger but he would need to improve considerably. The Step back in trip isn’t really a concern for me as he has won fairly easy 3m chases before and this will be a stiff enough 2m5f today.
2 Points win 11/4 Generally
Great win and contiunes our unbelivable run of winning with rare short price selections. Only Sprinter Scare has lost in 12 selections since the start of 2015 at an average price of about 3/1.
There are a lot of horses in this who have shot up the weights with a recent win and this race could be ripe for a surprise of a low weight. Minella on Line has been a disappointing horse after looking a decent prospect 2 years ago. He was very poor last year but has been getting it together better this year. He ran his best race for a while last time out when a poor jump at the last cost him a closer finish at Newbury. He looks a sold stayer with soft ground form and is getting a huge amount of weight from all the form horses here. This will be a slog of the highest order and he is worth and ew shot at 28/1.
1 Point EW 28/1 Paddy/VC
This horse ran a great race until he tired and couldnt get over the last (he pulled up) when in 3rd place. Still we got him on the right day it was just a torid race.
Horizontal Speed really caught the eye a couple of runs back at Cheltenham when getting tired in the finish after travelling best of all to the last hurdle. If he can recover that form he could stand a decent chance here of a good mark. We will have to forgive him his last poor run but we can do that at a decent price. He is a high class horse on his day and worth a big price dart here.
1 Point win 25/1 Skybet/Betfair Exch 22/1 Elsewhere
Travelled well but ran out of steam, I may keep him in mind at the festival as he could just be a lot better on good ground.
This race has an odd look about it with the 2 highest rated possibly not in form and not really at home of the heavy ground. The Favourite looks far too short given his rating and I’m drawn to Thunder and Roses at a very big price here. He has won around here in this ground is sure to stay and ok we have forgiven him his last run in the Tyestes, but 20/1 looks very big just looking purely at the ratings here. There isn’t a lot between him and the favourite here and if he was to get back into form at all he might just have a shout here.
1 Point win 20/1 Sky/Boyles
Class won out here with both rated horses that i thought were out of form, fought it out after a grat battle. BostonBob looks ahuge price for the ryanair and he is miles better on good ground.