I felt that Lami Serge would be good this year and I‘m not going to go off him now after 1 bad run last time out. On looking at his overall form he really has the best form on office and if we can forgive him that blip he will stand a great chance today. 9/1 looks value on a tight race but one that looks open to something coming out and stamping his authority.
1 Point win 9/1
Lami looked like the winner jumpin the last but he didnt get up the hill
All At Fishers Cross’s best form is on good ground at this time of the year. I think he will be knocking on the door again here in the same way he did the last 2 years and 40/1 is far too big.There isn’t a lot between him and Whisper who is vastly shorter in the betting.
1 Point EW 40/1 Generally
Pulled up with something amis half way around.
We had a confident bet on Indian Castle on Tuesday before he was withdrawn and although he isn’t as big a price here, this is a weaker race and 20/1 with 5 places is value with his course form. He will be very difficult to knock out of the places here.
1 Point EW 20/1 5 places 365/racebets
He was backed into 16/1 and finished in the most obvious place when looking for 5 places 6th.
Previously Advised running today
Ante-post Bet 1 13/1/2016
I’m going to keep these bets small more for an interest as normally good prices are available on the day, but in this case I think the price about John Spirit won’t last and he’ll go off about 12/1. I’m as sure as I can be that he will run in this race as it’s his best trip and he has been running well enough this year on unsuitable ground. He is down to a very good mark considering he was the best he ever was last year with very good performances in the Ryanair and at Aintree. 25/1 is just too tempting seen as I’ve been waiting for a price for the last few months. My gut is once he didn’t get his way in the Paddy Power , this race has been his target of a nice mark since then. I’ll go for a min bet now and if he is still this price with a NRNB bookie in a few weeks I’ll be topping up by a full point EW.
½ Point win Bet365/Racebets 25/1 Brown Advisory Plate
Top Up 8/2/2016
I’m not sure what I was thinking when I said ½ point win on John Spirit for the Brown Advisory Plate on the Thursday of Cheltenham. He is one of my main Handicap hopes of the festival and ½ a point is silly so I’m suggesting adding another ½ point win at 25/1 if you can get racebets of any of the 20/1 available in 365/sporting/lads.
If we can get 16/1 NRNB closer to the off (unlikely id suspect 12 at best) we will be turning this into a 2pt EW bet, with a fair amount of confidence.
½ Point win Brown Advisory Plate 20/1
John Spirit hit a fence half way a round and pulled up soon after. He went off at 11/2 which made our 25/1 bet look good.
Kim Muir Ante-Post
I had been looking at The Giant Bolster for the 3mile handicap on day 1 but was disappointed when I saw he wasn’t entered . I assumed he was stupidly going for the gold cup. I had a look at his entries and noticed he was entered here a race I hadn’t even looked at yet. He has been a bit of a disappointment this year a bit but has been dropped far too much in my opinion particularly for his last run of level weights. There are horses here that have to give him weight that just have no chance at all, even on his form this year. If you factor in that he certainly prefers decent ground and loves the track if he can improve at all he is the most likely winner here. I was taken by his Hennessy run this year on bad ground and that race probably had an effect on his next run as it was a tough race. If he can travel as well as he did there he will have a lot of these in trouble. There are no circumstances that I can see him getting around that he won’t be placed at least and I think he has a great chance of winning what is a much lower class race than he has been running with credit in, even this year. 16/1 is worthy of a decent EW bet given the NRNB safety net. I would predict that if he does run in this he will go off 10/1 at best and possibly shorter.
2 Points ew 16/1 NRNB 4 places tote/fred/vc/lads
Hard to know what to say here he went of at 7/1 and just wasnt travelling as he normally would . Possibly the ground was just too fast for him.