This race is more or less ruined by the stupid surface but still it’s an interesting race today. I had 3 that I just couldn’t choose between so I’ve gone with 2. Gavlar ran as well as could be expected in this last year having to come from the very back of this mark and has plenty of decent runs around here on this surface. He was decent in his last run over too short a trip and I think he will surly have today as his main target. 40/1 with 5 or 6 places is just too big. Clever Cookie is my other pick here at a huge price. His first run this year in a group 2 was decent and if he takes to this surface he should be able to get involved even of top weight. 40/1 is easily big enough to make it worth the risk. My other horse is Suegioo and I’ll probably have a small saver win only just in case.
1 Point EW Gavlar 40/1 6 places sky 5 places paddy/betfair
1 Point EW Clever Cookie 33/1 6 places sky 5 places paddy/betfair 40/1 4 places elsewhere
I’m utterly stuck here between 3 bets . I think Wings of Eagles could just walk this as he is improving rapidly, essentially won the Epson Derby with a fair bit in hand and should be really suited by the Curragh. Douglas Macarthur is certainly the second best of Aidan’s but 14/1 isn’t really an ew price. 100/1 is too big for The Anvil on his Chester run if we can ignore the Epson run. I’ve had another look at the French Derby and I think Waldgeist if far too short here.
The Anvil had to work far too hard uphill in the early stages of the Epson Derby to have any hope of staying there come the finish, whereas Douglas McArthur was running within his comfort zone on the uphill part. I think Taj Mahal isn’t good enough as he is now fully exposed and I don’t think Capri is value at 9/1. If in doubt no AOB horse is 100/1 in this race and on his Chester run I’m going to go with the hugely predictable selection of The Anvil at 100/1. Let’s face it he is a 66/1 shot here but that is just too much of a margin to give up. We’ll know our fate early because if he goes to the front but doesn’t go mad there like Epson he may be a bit more difficult to pass here.
1 Point EW 100/1 365 ¼ place The Anvil 1/5 place elsewhere
Tinder is the outsider of the field here but she has some very good form as a 2yo and we can safely ignore her last run over too short a trip. She was 3rd of this mark in the Birdcatcher last year and I wouldn’t be at all surprised is she finds improvement here for a stable in form, stepped up in trip. 25/1 is worth the risk.
1 Point win 25/1 365/sky/stan
We’ve decided to follow Dinkum Diamond and were getting a decent price here because of a poor run last time out. This might just be his trip and I’ll take a chance at a huge price that he can improve today 25/1 is worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
Velvet Revolution may not have been suited by either the Firm Ground of the slow race last time out but does look a horse to follow over these trips and is less exposed than most of the field. The stable looks to be getting back to form and 14/1 is value
1 Point win 14/1 Generally