Grand National

Waiting for the bet365 offer has cost me on my main selection. Houblon Des Obeaux was a fair bit better than his 10^th place finish last year having finished well to pass lot of horses after getting outpaced. He is unlikely to get outpaced as much here on the soft ground. He has a fair few good runs this year and if he gets around hell be finishing better than anything. Bet365 has 40/1 5 places and 33/1 6 places. I think with him it’s important to get the extra place, especially as the place part is free which essentially means it’s double the odds which makes him 66/1 with 6 places ¼ the odds and that is a cracking bet

2.5 Points EW 33/1 ¼ 6 place Bet365. 5 Points 2.5 returned

Carlingford Lough is my second selection, he is a strong stayer and certainly goes on the ground, has enough class to get involved here at a huge price. He has had a light season but looks to retain a fair bit of ability when close enough in a very strong John Durkan earlier this year over a trip a long way short of his best. The way he runs his races could be well suited to this test and at 50/1 with the bet365 offer which makes him effectively 100/1 he looks great value.

2 Points EW 50/1 5 places 365 offer costing 2 points

Alpha Des Obeaux, has been good this year and has plenty of class for a race like this. He has run well above this mark a few times this year in grade 1s and given that he is over a stone better off with Total Recall for their limerick meeting I think he can get involved here at the price I was looking for.  He has had a nice break to prepare for this and usually runs well of a break. 40/1 5 places with 365 is a great price given it’s really 80/1

2 Points EW 40/1 5 places 365 costing 2 points

I’m hard pressed to narrow down for my last selection between as few and I’ve decided to go with my initial selection Saint Are . When I watched a replay of the 2016 national he travelled and jumped well in the soft ground and got tired from being right up with the pace all the time. I think he will be ridden here with far more patience and can see him finishing well at a huge price. Ill also go for the extra place in his case

2 Points EW 50/1 6 Places Bet365 costing 2 points

4:05

Clarcam is a horse I always thought had a big handicap in him.  He seemed to love jumping the fences last year and I think the softer ground this year will really suit him. Last year’s race came at the end of a very long season and he is one of the freshest horses in the field this year with only 2 runs. He also has run well here a few times in the past. For and Elliot trained Russell Ridden horse with some course form 40/1 seems very big.

2 Points EW 6 places lads 40/1 33/1 6 places paddy/sky/coral

Rogue Angel really loved the national test last year and lead for a lot of the way, until he got tired late on. He is certainly on a workable mark here and is on his 3rd run after a 3 month break. If I had him after watching last year’s national I’d have to target him at another race over those fences. I’m going to gamble that today is the plan. The soft ground 2m5 might be a bit shorted than ideal but the soft ground will certainly be in his favour. If he gets near the front and jumps as well as he did last year he’ll be in the first 6 here.

1 Point EW 33/1 6 places paddy/boyles 28/1 6 places sky/lads/coral

1:45

Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6^th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1

1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Aintree Day 1

2:20

If we can forgive Les Arceaux his poor run last time out at Gowran, his first 2 runs over hurdles make interesting reading. He was a close 2^nd to Sayo (3^rd in the Triumph) and also a close second to Veneer of Charm (Fred Winter Winner). He obviously has a fair bit to find here but 40/1 is simple to big to ignore when the Irish form is so much better than uk 4 yo form.

1 Point EW 40/1 Paddy/Betfair

2:50

If Sub Lieutenant does improve form his run at Cheltenham, where he was back after a 3 month break he could get involved here. The Fav will be near impossible to beat here but I think some of the other horses are overrated. HE ran well enough here in the Melling last year and I just wouldn’t be surprises if he ran well above his price here.

1 Point EW 40/1 Betfair Paddy

4:05

Bears Affair was a bit of an eye catcher in last year’s race and looks to have been kept for another go at this judging by his light season so far. He should be suited by this being a bigger test of stamina this year and given that this race is certainly not as strong as last year 25/1 with 4 places looks great value.

2 Points ew 4 place’s Lads 25/1 22/1 4 places paddy and others

4:40

On the face of it, 12 years old is too old for a 2 mile handicap chase such as this one but older horses have a surprisingly good record in these top 2 miles handicaps. I’m going to give old favorite Savello a small chance at an outrageous price. He traveled well enough until a mistake last time out and has been given a huge chance by the handicapper here if he is able to recover any form. It’s a long time to keep him in training with a top trainer at this age after he was of the course for near 14 months.

1 Point EW 50/1 paddy/betfair/lads

Aintree Day 1

2:20

If we can forgive Les Arceaux his poor run last time out at Gowran, his first 2 runs over hurdles make interesting reading. He was a close 2^nd to Sayo (3^rd in the Triumph) and also a close second to Veneer of Charm (Fred Winter Winner). He obviously has a fair bit to find here but 40/1 is simple to big to ignore when the Irish form is so much better than uk 4 yo form.

1 Point EW 40/1 Paddy/Betfair

2:50

If Sub Lieutenant does improve form his run at Cheltenham, where he was back after a 3 month break he could get involved here. The Fav will be near impossible to beat here but I think some of the other horses are overrated. HE ran well enough here in the Melling last year and I just wouldn’t be surprices if he ran well above his price here.

1 Point EW 40/1 Betfair Paddy

4:05

Bears Affair was a bit of an eye catcher in last year’s race and looks to have been kept for another go at this judging by his light season so far. He should be suited by this being a bigger test of stamina this year and given that this race is certainly not as strong as last year 25/1 with 4 places looks great value.

2 Points ew 4 place’s Lads 25/1 22/1 4 places paddy and others

4:40

On the face of it, 12 years old is too old for a 2 mile handicap chase such as this one but older horses have a surprisingly good record in these top 2 miles handicaps. I’m going to give old favourite Savello a small chance at an outrageous price. He travelled well enough until a mistake last time out and has been given a huge chance by the handicapper here if he is able to recover any form. It’s a long time to keep him in training with a top trainer at this age after he was of the course for near 14 months.

1 Point EW 50/1 paddy/betfair/lads

Irish National

I’ve had Lord Scoundrel down to be my biggest bet of the year for this for a while now, but the ground has probably gone against him for me to be as sure as I was before. He is a class animal at his best and is on a mark which he can certainly win off. I’ll still go for him at a huge price just in case but it’ll be a much-reduced bet. I have a sneaking fancy also the Paparrazi kid might run a big race at a huge price. He’ll go on the ground and should stay the trip, 66/1 is too big. My third selection represents the very good Irish Novice form. Snow Falcon is racing here of a mark that will well below his near top class 3 mile hurdles form and his run last time when he went after Monalee too early looks good now given all those horses good runs since. The fact that he didn’t go to Cheltenham is a big advantage and 25/1 looks a nice bit of value.

1 Point ew 50/1 6 places paddy/sky Lord Scoundrel

1 Point ew 66/1 6 Places paddy/sky Paparrazi Kid

1 Point ew 25/1 6 places paddy.sky Snow Falcon

1:50 meyden

Natural  Scenery looks like a nice bit of value here at 66/1 .  She has scope for improvement and some of the others ahead of her in the betting might be on the downgrade .

1 point ew 4 places  paddy power .

2:30

I think there is nothing between seahenge and Mendelssohn here and 16/1 is great value .

1 point win 16/1 generally

Doncaster 2:25

Hard to believe that the boring flat is back so soon after the highs of Cheltenham but a 33/1 shot that should be 16/1 is as good here are it was last week. Pastime was a big eye catcher behind the fav for this race last year, around here in a strong looking 7 furlong handicap on Soft Ground. He is now 8lbs better off with What’s the Story for a couple of lengths in that run and Pastime had to come from another parish to grab 3^rd. I think we can safely ignore his last run as he got behind early and never really got into the race. That run should put him right for this and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the step up in trip and the ground and course were all in his favour here. 33/1 looks massive. Mosse is booked for the ride and that can only be an advantage.

2 Points EW 33/1 5 places paddy/lads/betway

Doncaster 3:35

London Protocol was a bit of a talking horse a few times in the past but he finally got his act together with a couple of wins in France at the end of last year. He has been disappointing since but a couple of runs in Mayden should have put him right for this. He does look to be on a fairly tough mark but has plenty of form on soft and looks worth a play here at a huge price. He might just improve this year and if he does 66/1 could look very big.

1 Point EW 6 places 66/1 sky & coral 5 places generally

Uttoxeter 3:35

Silsol was my pick for the Grand National until he was taken out and I think this race will really suit him. He has a fair bit of weight to carry but is a class above anything else here. He loves soft ground and stays forever. Thankfully by finally hitting the net on Friday he’s no longer the getting out stakes. To dull the pain of the boat home 12/1 is just about value

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

‪Liking Ceour de lion in the 4:50‬

‪33/1 1 pt ew 5 places 365 and others‬

2:10

After a week of mostly hitting the post or bombing out I’m back with a huge priced one here as a get out of jail card. Sternrubin has a good record in these types of races having been 3^rd in this before. He has a few wins on the flat in the last year and started reasonably well over fences. Most of all he has an exceptional record fresh and hasn’t run since November. All this adds up to a huge chance and 50/1 with 6 places seems a massive price.

2 Points EW 6 places paddy / 5 places  ¼ 365 and 50/1 generally

I’m also going for Mohaayed at a decent looking price. He ran well in this last year looked good against the Champion Hurdle winner on soft ground on his last run and I’m somewhat surprised he is such a big price here.

1 Point EW 33/1 6 places paddy

2:50

Fabulous Saga beat the pertempts winner on heavy ground earlier this year and is about the most experienced horse in this race. He was poor last time out but that is reflected in his price here and if he gets back to form he could well get involved here at a huge price

1 Point EW 33/1 4 places betfair/paddy/hills .

4:10

Ive had Unioniste on my mind for this all year, but with the soft ground he has an even better chance. Ive missed the 20/1 this morning so we’ll go win only. His negative is probably the jockey who isn’t in the top 10, but im hopeful that the horse will go from the front and stay there in this ground.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Gold Cup

We already have a bet at 1 pt EW at 33/1 on Djakadam and as he is one of my bigger opinions of the festival we will go in again at 28/1 with 4 places . His form this year is not a lot different than last year and some of last year placed horses aren’t running this year. 28/1 with 4 places is value again.

1 Point EW 28/1 4 places ¼ 365

5:30

This race is an old horses benefit  a lot of the time which doesn’t seem to make sense seen as it’s the quickest 2 miles handicap all year. Last year Bright New Dawn ran well but got run out of it at the finish on good ground. He has loads of form on heavy and I think he will be much better suited by it, along with the 6lbs less he has to carry. Thre is a negative in that he has basically not run since November but at 80/1 well take the risk

1 Point EW 80/1 5 places ¼ odds 365 801/ 5 places 1/5 elsewhere