Ascot 3:00

Its not often in a race like this you would see last years winner in the form of his life, of a mark he can perform of at 14/1. That said Regal Encore is about as inconsistent as you could see. His run when we put him up EW in the Hennessy was the best run of his life and he was a nice bit clear of the rest of the field behind two real prospects. 14/1 is worth the risk

1 Point win 14/1 365/coral/stan

Ascot 3:35

Going with the fairly obvious big priced outsider here is Fergall. He ran well here last year a couple of times and again caught the eye in the much stronger Galway Hurdle this year. He is very lightly raced but can perform of this mark. 28/1 is definitely value here. Some at the top of the market don’t appeal at all and to me it looks as if Elgin should be favourite. He has gone up a lot in the weights, but I fancied him for the Supreme last year so I think he is still capable of improvement.

1 Point win Fergall 28/1 365 25/1 Generally

1 Point win Elgin 9/1 365 8/1 generally

Haydock 2:45

No Planning really catches my eye here on a light weight. He is proven of much higher marks in very soft ground. He has been dropped a fair way this year for a few admittedly poor runs but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improves here with a lot in his favour. 16/1 on the face of it seems the right price but my gut is saying its going to look very big later.

2 Points win 16/1 Paddy 14/1 Generally

Navan 1:20

Kauto Grand Mogol looks on a very good mark here after showing up well last time out. He got tired which is understandable after such a long layoff and it was only his 2^nd run back. If he strips fitter here he should get involved. He has Cheltenham festival form of a higher mark that nothing else in this race would be able to achieve.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

I posted this earlier on twitter but it dint save on my site. The price is gone a bit but 20/1 is still value

3:40 Cheltenham

I’m surprised at the price of Rons Dream here. Although she is top weight she has a good 5lbs claimer on here and isn’t giving a lot of weight to  a few less proven horses. I think she has performed as well as could be expected so far this year and this trip and ground might well be in her favour. She looks one of the more likely winners at 16/1 is a fair bit too big given she has dropped to a mark that it well within her grasp.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

1:55 Cheltenham

I had another look at the Paddy Power here a few weeks ago and what struck me there is Romain De Senam actually went the inside line for the last mile of that race after cruising up to get near the front. Every other race that day any horse that went the shortest way around died on their feet so that makes his performance to finish 5^th there a lot better than it initially seemed. He is also getting a few pounds from those ahead of him. I think he is a solid 7/1 or 8/1 shot here so the 14/1 on offer is far too big.

I was looking all week at Guitar Pete but decided to hold fire and I’m paying for it now as the 20/1 is long gone and I’m not sure how much value he is at 11/1 is this race. I’ll have a saver just to dull the pain if he does win. He is well treated and I’ve always had a decent chase handicap in mind for him.

2 Points win 14/1 Romain De Senam

1 Point win 11/1 Guitar Pete

1:20 Cheltenham

Sire De Grugy is far too big a price to ignore here in this race. He was very poor last time out but was pretty decent in his first run this year over hurdles. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this place woke him up a bit. He has been dropped 6lbs from that Ascot run and that mark could make it difficult for this field.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Sandown 1:45

I’m a big fan on Sceau Royal and I think he is well overpriced here. He was better than any of these over hurdles and has taken really well to fences. He just failed to give North Hill Harvey 5lbs at Cheltenham and I think this stronger race will suit his racing style. 8/1 is double his real price here

2 Points win 8/1 Generally       

Aintree 1:30

The Young Master is worth a small bet here. He is well capable of running well of this mark and actually has form in the past on heavy ground.  He is a massive price because of his 2 falls around here but I’m not going to watch SWC win again around here at 40/1 and not have a tiny bet on.

In addition Lord Windermere has a good record fresh and ran a great race in last year’s national of this mark. There is a big negative in that they are surly going to have him ready for the big dance but 40/1 makes it a risk worth taking.

1 Point win 40/1 The Young Master 365/hills/betway/vc

1 Point win 40/1 Lord Windermere 365/hills

2:35 Fairyhouse

Townshend is an outrageous price here on the back of a not so good run around a silly track like Galway last time out. He got a bit behind after the last 2 and couldn’t make it up. The form of his Novice Chase win around Roscommon could not have worked out any better and he won that well against a very high class field. He is about 5 times the price he should be here and that means it time to bet. I think he is about a 12/1 shot here so the wallet can be opened at the 50/1 available.  We’ll certainly get a run for our money as he is very likely to be in there with a shot coming down to the last 2 here as he is a strong traveller and a good jumper most of the time.

2 Points win 50/1 365/hills/betfair/paddy/boyles

2:05 Fairyhouse

I fancy 2 young horses here with some improvement in them . West Coast Time was a big talking horse a while ago and has been disappointing on the face of it, but it would hardly be a surprise if he suddenly improved of what seems a nice mark here.

In addition Houses of Parliament already has the form in the book to be competitive  here of this mark . 33/1 is too big for him .

1 point win West Coast Time 22/1 generally

1 point ew Houses of Parliament 33/1 5 places lads/paddy/Betfair/Boyles

3:00 Newbury

This looks a particularly weak Hennessy and I’m going to go with the hope that Coneygree wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t well and if he is he could give these a routing. The ground should be fine and his style will be suited to this race. Hopefully he never sees another horse. 18/1 looks far too big to me.

I’m also going to have a tiny saver on Regal Encore at a huge price. He is fairly shorts odds/on to pull up but on the days he doesn’t he is a very decent horse and 100/1 makes it a chance worth taking.

2 Points win 18/1 Coneygree 365/betfair/paddy and others

½ Point EW 100/1 Regal Encore 6 places  betfair 5 places paddy/365

1:50 Newbury

I’ve convinced myself that Old Guard is going to be too good for these in what looks ideal conditions. The step up in trip and decent ground are all in his favour and of the same mark as his very good 3^rd in the Greatwood he won’t be far away here. 7/1 is 3 points too big.

2 Points win 7/1 365/hills/vc

1:20 Newbury

Junction Fourteen is on a mark he can certainly win of here if he decided to put in a decent shift. He has plenty of class but often throws the toys out and doesn’t compete. I think there is enough chance of him getting involved here to make his price of 18/1 look decent in this race. We got the winner of this last year with a similar horse.

1 Point EW 18/1 Generally

Navan 2:35

This is a pretty straightforward pick . Rogue Angel got fairly close to placing last time out for us at a big price and he is a few pounds lower here today . He is proven in these races and we’ll get a better run for our money than his price of 50/1 should indicate .  If he improves at all from his last run he’ll be in the firing line here .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places paddy/Betfair

Not much in the way of racing to suit my type of selections today but looking forward to seeing the Betfair Chase
Haydock 2:25

Surprise Surprise, I’m going with outsider of the whole field here. Fingerontheswitch appeared to me to like the soft ground last time out the way he traveled and for a horse who had almost no form on soft that augurs well for him here with only 9:9 to carry. This will be a slog of the highest order and its going to be difficult to carry weight around here. This horse was a better hurdler than he has been a chaser the last year or 2 and looks on a reasonable mark even though he is 3lbs out of the handicap. The very good 5lbs claimer on will put him in with a chance at a huge price.

1 Point EW 6 places 50/1 Betfair/sky 5 places paddy

6:40 Kemton

So Beloved has a fair bit in his favour here. He was excellent 2 runs ago in France and just unlucky last time out in Ireland. He is well capable of winning this and 12/1 is value. As tempting as the 4 places with paddy is, for an almost certain placer the price simply isn’t big enough for me to go EW.

1 Point win 12/1 generally

3:00

Old Guard has been on my mind for this for a while now. I think he needs a fast 2 miles like this and has won on soft ground around here before. He has been close for us a few times over a longer trip last year. He really looked good last time out and I find it difficult to knock him out of the places here at a good price.  25/1 with 5 places looks great value with paddy and betfair

2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair 20/1 6 places sky

2:15

Lets face it Faugheen wins this without a doubt if he is anywhere near fit, but I think Campeador is making a decent price for Jezki . The ground may well not be in his favour and he is getting on but I still think he is a fair way clear of Campeador and if Faugheen isn’t right he should win. 7/1 13/2 is silliness.

1 Point win 13/2 Generally