2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 point ew 5 places 50/1 generally .

3:30

Bottom weight Perfect Summer has form on soft is fit from some very decent runs on the flat and has been a consistent hurdler. He might be difficult to knock out of the 5 places on offer here with paddy and others. 33/1 seems big

1 Point EW 5 places Paddy/sky/betfair/fred

12:40

As De Pique has been given a decent shot here by the handicapper. He has bettter form than most of these last year in very good Irish handicaps and has  a top class rider on board which is vital in these races. Although he is 12 he is relatively lightly raced and 20/1 is very big.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

3:00

Vicomte Du Seuil has been running well is small races in France this year. He has some very decent form in the past and looks to have been given a decent shot here of a very light weight.The trainer knows how to win these and 20./1 looks too big.

1 Point win 20/1 365/hill/betf/paddy

Melbourne Cup 4:00 am

I couldn’t have a more confident pick here. Hartnell looks a huge price at 28/1. He was a very good 3rd in this last year when well clear of the rest of the field. He is 3k better off with the winner for a 4 length beating and the runner up isn’t here. He has had a lower key season this year than last and today is surly the day for him to be at his peak. There are negatives for him, being top weight but he is always carrying this weight anyway. This year’s race is not as strong as last years as far as I can see. Of the Irish challengers I fancy Max Dynamite bit he is too short for this race. Wicklow brave will run a lot better than least here but the huge price with 6 places is gone so I’m not sure what value he is now.  The 6 places on offer is a big concession for a consistent horse and I actually make Hartnell near evens to be in the 6. That makes the 5/1 on offer just far too big to ignore. His win chance isn’t as much value id have him more of a 16/1 or 18/1 shot but that is still plenty of margin. Time for an actual bet with the 25/1 and 6 places with paddy/betfair/sky

3 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/betfair/sky

3:15 Cork

Rogue Angel is always going to need him first run and as first runs go I’d be very happy with this year’s one in the Kerry National. He led turning in and just got tired which is understandable. This race doesn’t look as strong and he could be very difficult to get him out of the 4 here of a very workable mark.

2 Points EW 33/1 4 places paddy/fred/betfair/boyles

Del Mar 7:37

Washington DC looks to be in the process of running a good race last time till he got sandwiched late on. This race could really suit him. He will need the luck in running but I think Lady Aurelia could setup the race for him to get involved. She seems impossible to beat here but its very short for a race that requires a silly amount of luck. I’m going to go for a couple of tiny tricasts here at huge prices as well

1 Point EW 25/1 betfair/paddy/boyles/fred

BET365 Tricast 1 Lady 2 Washington 3 Marsha ½ Point 74

BET365 Tricast 1 Lady 2 Marsha 3 Washington ½ Point 52

Del Mar 9:00

Nezwahh has had a nice light season could be a lot better on this ground and my guess is she will improve a huge amount for her last run. 20/1 is too big.

1 Point win 20/1 Paddy/Betfair

Del Mar 10:19

When In Rome and all that, I fancy Ribchester, Lancaster Bomber and Zelzal here so I’m going for a few tricasts at huge prices for fun.  1.5 points total

¼ Point win Tricast 365 Rib/Lanc/Zel  255

¼ Point win Tricast 365 Rib/Zel/Lan 234

¼ Point win Tricast 365 Zel/Lan/Zel 407

¼ Point win Tricast 365 zel/rib/lan 304

¼ Point win Tricast 265 Lan/Zel/Rib 437

¼ Point win Tricast 265 Lan/rib/zel 352

Del Mar 22/58

Us Navy Flag  could well be out of sight here from stall 1 and 9/1 seems very big. He has had a busy season but has only improved with each run.

2 Points win 9/1 betfair/paddy/888

3:00 Ascot

Clayton catches the eye here on a potentially god mark here. He is a 100 horse on the flat and poor jumping has him down on a mark of 122 over hurdles. He has a good record fresh and if his jumping has been improved over the summer he can get involved here. 25/1 is worth the risk

1 Point win 25/1 lads/hills 22/1 boyles/coral

Ascot 3:35

The Young Master looks a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has some decent runs fresh and is a course and distance winner of a higher mark here. Carrying less than 11 stone here he will be right in the firing line if he is back to form after the break. Last year wasn’t great hence both the mark and price but 25/1 is a big price for horse that had loads of potential and is still young.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Down Royal 2:30

Once again laziness has cost me one of the value bets of the year. Outlander was 25/1 yesterday for this and I really thought that was huge but I’m guilty of waiting for a w/o fav price this morning and now he is 16/1 at best. I’ll still have a small win bet at that price on the horse with the best form in this race. He was poor enough on his first run this year but if he improves for that today has surly been his target

1 Point win 16/1 365/sporting/fred/tote

 Wetherby 3:15

Cue Card just wins this if he is anywhere near his best but for a value pick I like the look of Shantou Flyer. If the big 2 aren’t on top form here there isn’t much between him and the rest and he will improve for the step up in trip here. He likes soft ground and ran his best race ever first time out last year at Cheltenham. 33/1 is a huge price.

1 Point win 33/1 365/paddy 28/1 generally

10:50 Delmar

Beckford’s best run was in the Phoenix  Stakes on good/firm and I think he will be really suited by this race. He has a decent draw and 14/1 is big for a group 1 performer here.

1 Point win 14/1 lads/hills/coral

1:50 Aintree

Cloudy too ran well enough in a couple of these races last year and I think we can be fairly sure that today has been the plan for early this year. HE had a spin over hurdles lately and should be competitive of this mark. 16/1 looks a bit of value for a classy horse that may not be finished yet. There is a negative in that most of his form is on soft ground

1 Point win 16/1 generally

2:45 Wincanton

Mosspark has a good record fresh is a certainty to stay the trip and looks a long way overpriced here at 25/1. He is a consistent horse with good form in the book.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Doncaster 3:25

The Aidan O’Brien trio look to be in the complete wrong order to me. I think Seahenge is the best of these on this year’s form and he hasn’t had the run of the race in his last 2 runs but has still performed to a level above anything else here. My guess is he will improve again here and this mile will really suit him. AS I have him at a 4 – 6/1 shot the currently available 12/1 is a huge bargain and we won’t be missing that. When I look through the form Coat of Arms isn’t very far behind any of these and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him take a hand in the finish here at a 3 figure price. Don’t get me wrong he is probably a 50/1 shot but 100/1 he isn’t for steadily improving 2yo on good ground

3 Points win 12/1 Seahenge Generally

1 Point EW Coat of Arms 100/1 ¼ place 365 1/5^th elsewhere

Newbury 2:15

Across the stars is a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has form on soft and is a big price here purely because of a poor run latest, which was probably too close to a very good run at Chester. He has the form in the book to go close here and that Chester run has worked out well. He should be staying on here and 22/1 is very big, I’d have him near half that.

2 Points win 22/1 365/lads/coral and others

Doncaster 4:00

 Orion’s Bow was in the process of improving again this year up to Ascot in the summer. He put in 3 poor runs and then showed a little bit more last time out. If that signals a return to form at all he will be right there of this mark. 25/1 is worth the risk

2 Points EW 25/1 ¼ place generally