3:35 Lincoln

I had time to have a good look at this this morning I narrowed it down to 4 horses for value here. Instant Attraction,Gabrial, Emell and Withernsea. I’m only going to go with 2 here and Instant Attraction is the most interesting of those at a decent look 25/1 . He looks to have a decent draw has course form and should be able to get competitive of this mark. Gabrial is my second choice as i think he is a proper group horse and even of 108 will get close enough ehre at a big looking 22/1. I’ll go against my original comment and have a saver on Emell at a huge 33/1 just to save the TV from certain death if he were to win here.
1 Point win Instant Attraction 25/1
1 Point win Gabrial 22/1
1/2 Point win Emell 33/1

1:50 Doncaster
I think Absolutely  So should be fav here and looks like a Group Horse in what looks a poor enough renewal. 15/2 is just too big
1 Point win 15/2 Various

2:25 Doncaster
Mutakaraz interests me here of what looks a fairly decent mark. He ran well enough in last years Lincoln of a much higher mark with no prep run and i think he will be a lot better in this weaker race after a decent looking prep run this year. He is very lightly raced and could well improve this year to make this mark look very good in hindsight.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally
3:00 Doncaster
Kool Company is and interesting sort for this race. He looks a possibly top notch horse a couple of years ago and has some good wins of a break to his name. This race could be an ideal opertunity for him to get back to form.
1 Point win 11/1 Generally

2:40 Kempton
I think Professor has been given a decent break here on this mark and his second last run was promising enough. 33/1 is probably a few points too big of such a low mark and he is probably going to pop up at some stage.
1 Point win 33/1 Generally

12:50 Meyden

I’m about to pick the biggest price horse I’ve ever selected, as I’m hopeful I’ve found the real value in this race tomorrow. Basateen had been a disappointing horse, but has been a bit of an eye-catcher on his last few runs and has improved with each run and each step up in trip. He was particularly  eye-catching last time against the top 2 in this market when anything that could have went wrong did as he got no run at all and finished well to be 4^th 3 lengths behind the fav here. He steps up another 2 furlongs here and is completely unexposed over this trip. From what I’ve seen last time this may well improve him again and if it does there is no chance he is a 200/1 shot. Now let’s not get carried away as at best he is a 33/1 or 40/1 shot here but still those margins are huge and with the added bonus of his potential stepped up again I’m all over this 200/1. IF only I could get 4 places EW, but still beggars cant be choosers and we’ll have to make do with 3 places here. I’d be getting on early as these kindsof prices will go as soon as a few people stick on small enough EW bets.

2 Points EW 200/1 Paddy/Betfair/VC

He is also 150/1 W/o Fav on Betfair Ive had a Cut at that

2:00 meyden

Finsbury Square looked like an improving sprinter last year and with a run under his belt this year he could well get competitive here at a huge price. He travelled really well in the Abbay last year when just getting nosed out of the places and 66/1 is value.

1 Point EW 66/1 Generally

4:10 Ludlow

Workbench is a difficult horse to catch on his day. I think he is overpriced here tomorrow. All his good runs have come in small field races, and if the ground gets any better than the current soft-GS in places he could be in with a real shout here as the outsider of the field at 14/1. I think he is more of an 8/1 shot so that warrants a 2 point win bet.

2 Points win 14/1 365/VC 12/1 Generally

2:10
I’m sure people will think Ive lost the plot here but i just cant rule out L’ami Serge at a huge price. He is mad and a poor jumper at times but no matter what way i look at it he is going to be placed here. His festival form is better than most of these, and i think what he actually needs is this fast 2 mile race. 33/1 with 6 places is a huge price
2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Paddy/Sky 5 places elsewhere
3:30
I think there is a fairly strong chance that Cue Card is a fair way clear of these. Im more or less ruling out Native River as i don’t really like his form at all. That makes the 5/1 about Cue Card seems too big and worthy of a decent bet. I think he will love this test on decent ground. In addition i think Irish Cavalier is about a 10/1 shot to place making his 100/1 4 places price too big. He certainly loves good ground and was 5th last year.
2 Points win Cue Card 5/1 fred/tote/betway/32 and more
1 Point EW Irish Cavalier 100/1 4 Placs Paddy 80/1 4 Places Sky.
4:10
Mendip Express is a mad price here at 66/1. He had some of the best form last year in hunters and has s superb chance of being involved here. I also think Black Thunder is very overpriced because of a poor run last time. We can be sure today is the day for him.
1 Point EW Medip Express 66/1 4 places Paddy/VC/Betfair
1 Point EW Black Thunder 33/1 4 Places Paddy/VC/Betfair
5:30
Mr Fiftyone has been an expensive horse to follow for a long time but he will like the ground here and i like the fact that he has been sent here after a 5 month break by a trainer who just doesn’t waste travel. 33/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

2:10

Aubesson has decent good ground 3 mile firm over hurdles and has looked like he is improving this year . Last years grade 1 French form would be right in the firing line here .

1 point ew 80/1 5 places vc/365/lads

5:30
Doctor Harper is probably a bigger price than I expected here and we can be fully sure that he will be tuned up for this. He ill be suited by the ground and looks has looked like he has a race like this in him for the last year or two. It seems certain that he will go off shorter that the 16/1 currently available
1 Point win 16/1 hills/32/888/unibet/betfair
4:50
As much as I love Lets Dance i really cant have the difference in price here between her and Airlie Beach over 2 miles on good ground. Its hard to know which is better at this stage but I think on what we’ve seen so far Airlie Beach has a better chance of beating her today than she might over a longer trip or on softer ground. 9/2 looks a couple of points too big
2 Points win 5/1 Hills 9/2 Generally
4:10
Cocktails at Dawn has looked as if this kind of race will suit him in the past, as he needs decent ground. I fancied him last time out and he seemed to be traveling well until he fell. 50/1 is easily worth a shot in the dark here. I also like another good ground specialist in Un Ace at 25/1. He should be ideally suited by this race and he can bounce of this ground of a decent mark
1/2 Point EW 50/1 Cocktails at Dawn sporting/888/netbet/unibet
1 Point win Un Ace 25/1 generally
3:30
I apologize in advance for betting with the heart but 14/1 is mental about Shaneshill. Ruby has made the price for us by jumping ship. As soon as he sees the hill he sticks his head down and flies up. Hopefully he can be close enough turning the final corner.
2 Points win 14/1 vc/lads/coral and others

2:50
Hawk High is one of my plot horses for this festival. I had though he was going in the County, but he appears here at a decent price. He has a very good record fresh and i think he certainly has a decent chance here tomorrow. I’m putting it up early as i’m sure it will be backed. His run in the County last year was eye-catching and  33/1 6 places is great value.
2 Points ew 33/1 6 places Paddy/Coral

This race has 3 of my Pre-Festival handicap horse along with Hawk High, I was confident about a good run this festival from Old Guard and Hargam. Old Guard is worth a bet here at 25/1 as i think he has a touch of class along with very good course form. He was a big eye-catcher in his last 2 runs and i fully expect him to be involved at the finish here.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/boyles/vc

4:10

Colour Squadron was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time out at Punchestown and he really looked like he enjoyed the course but got bogged down in heavy ground near the finish after traveling well. I think the much better ground will suit him a lot better here. The longer trip is definitely a concern but his price of 28/1 is easily value in this race.

1 Point EW 28/1 1/4 odds 365/lads/coral

2:50
I’m loosing the plot here because I picked A Good Skin earlier while on the boat over and when I eventually get here he has been backed into 25/1 from 33/1 earlier. I still feel he is the value play EW here as he is 3 lbs lower than last years second to Cause or Causes. He is getting weight from nearly everything and has surly been readied for this race all year. I had a bigger bet in mind at the 33/1 price but well reduce it to a standard 1pt EW. I feel the place part is very good with his course form and 5 places.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/hills/paddy/vc 6 Places sky

I’ve had a bit of success with these “I’m having a bad day” accums before at Cheltenham . These aren’t necessarily my picks in the races but I feel there is a double available in a few places that is certainly overpriced. Petit Mouchoir is 7/1 in the Champion Hurdle and Apples Jade  is 5/1 in the Mares. Both of these should possibly be fav for both races and as much as I’d be tempted with a bigger EW bet I’ll go with a small win double as I can’t let it pass at these prices
1 Point win Double Petit Mouchir & Apples Jade 48/1 Paddy & Betfair 44/1 Sky    

National Hunt Chase

I’ve been looking at this race quite a few times in the last few days and I just can’t get past Arbe De Vie at a huge looking price for one with such potential. I’m not sure how many of these would be capable of a very unlucky second in a top 2m4 handicap hurdle of a mark of 144 on Good Ground. He has also finished 4^th at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet when he looked a sure stayer even when that was on softer ground. He again ran well enough in the Coral Cup last year when possibly left with a bit too much to do but still finished in 10^th only 5 lengths of the winner. I think he will be better on decent ground here and if his run behind the subsequently very good Acapella Bourgeois can be taken at face value, where he was only 4 lengths away in 2^nd, this form stacks up well against the other Irish horses at the top of the market here. He jumped really well in that race and the whole package of a Good Ground stayer that can jump and with a bit speed is just about perfect for this race where the first lap is often slow enough. I’ll go for a win bet now at the huge looking price of 25/1 but might top up again on the day if 4 places are available. Im not that concerned which one Paddy chooses here, but I think he will be making a mistake not to be one the selection  unless possibly Bellshill goes for this instead of the RSA.

2 Points win 25/1 365/VC/betfair

Sandown 1:50

Ramses De Teille has the look of one that will be much better over this longer trip and on softer ground. He caught eye last time out when looking green in the finish. His mark of 119 looks workable in this type of race and I think he will be staying on at the finish here. Gaitway also looks a bit of value but I’m think Ramses is better value at 22/1

1 Point EW 22/1 365/stan/coral/boyles

Ran well and looked to be coming there with a chance until mistakes at the last 2 hurdles