Im temped to take a bit of the 16/1 nrnb before he runs today . It’s a simple case of if he performs well here he’ll run and have a chance if not he won’t run . On form he’ll be the 2nd best horse in the Arkle if going .

2 points ew 16/1 sky paddy Betfair .  Arkle

He most certainly wont be going to the Arkle after that show. He looks to have  serious problem jumping, as he is making a poor shape over the fences, which is a pity when you see how he jumped in his first 2 chases. Still no harm done money back.

Were back to a free tips site from the 1st of March and good luck to anyone who follows

Long Shot Saturday

Newbury 1:30

Royal Guardsman has been a good horse for me as I’ve been on both times he has won around here at a decent price. His reappearance this year was decent and if he can improve on that, this race looks weaker and he should be fitter. He certainly isn’t a 14/1 shot and more than likely will go off around 9/1. He is back to his winning mark.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

2:05 Newbury

Turban never got going on his last run after early mistakes but his previous run was pretty decent of a much higher mark in a better race than this. He was never the most consistent for Willie Mullins but is well capable of a big run like his 3^rd in the Bobbyjoe Chase this time last year. He will go on the ground and is of a real attractive mark here. Let’s face it there is a better chance he will finish last than first but 40/1 is easily worth the risk.

1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

2016 was a tough year for selections in general. The start of the year was poor along with Cheltenham, which put us in a negative position compared to other years. The corner turned significantly at Royal Ascot and we dug ourselves out of the hole we were in finally with Brave Anna’s 50/1 success in September.

My Target each year is 66 points so were not that far of, a downturn right at the end of about 20 points put paid to our chances of hitting that mark.

Still I have to be happy with a 40 point profit given the fluctuations of long-shot tipping, and hopefully we can make up that in 2017.

There is going to be a significant change in 2017 with hardly anymore EW bets as these are an ROI killer. We would have been far more profitable last year without any of those.

3 Selections sent for todays racing.

Predictable long shot just sent for tomorrow. Hopefully tomorrow is the day

We hit the last treble here with all 3 running poorly

Plumpton 2:50

I like 2 in this race for small bets. Cailleach Annie looked a dour stayer when the penny eventually dropped near the finish last time out and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her running on at the finish here while others are dying in the slog. She has a light weight and is totally unexposed after only 6 runs lifetime. The other I like here at a huge price is Sixty Something. He came back last time out after a near 2 year break to travel well for most of the race but get tired and then pull up. He will have needed that run and that is the type of run I like to see from one coming back from a long time out. He is a good stayer and has won of higher in the past.

1 Point win Cailleach Annie 22/1 365/vc/lads/betfair

Plugged on for 6th after being backed into 14/1

1 Point win Sixty Something 40/1 365/vc/hills/betfair

Backed and fell when traveling well

Cheltenham 2:00

It’s possible that Village Vic will be near impossible to peg back here in a weaker  race than his previous runs, but I’m going to go with Vaniteux for value at 12/1. To me he looks a stayer as he lacks a real turn of foot to win over 2 miles. He has run well on both his runs this year and I think the good ground here over the longer trip will suit him. He finished last year with a good run over hurdles at this trip and if he can improve at all he is right in the firing line here at a bigger than expected price.

1 Point win 12/1 365/stan/coral

Non Runner

Cheltenham 3:10

This looks a very tight race but I’m not as negative about Old Guard as some. I think there is nothing between nearly the whole field but there is potential for improvement over this trip with him and he looks the value here at 16/1. I think his last 2 runs are pretty decent and if he can step up at all he won’t be far away. The fly in the ointment here is Cole Harden getting 8 lbs. from most of the field and we all could be made silly but he probably needs further .

1 Point win 16/1 Generally 18/1 Stan

Non Runner

Cheltenham 12:50

This looks a decent enough race but about 2/3rds of the field can be rules out here fairly easily. I think Aubusson ran better than his finishing place in the Hennessy as he got shuffled back at the worst possible time coming around the final bend and lugged on reasonable well with no chance after that. I don’t think there will be much between him and Vyta Du Roc on that run and he is much better value.

1 Point win 16/1 stars/fred/sporting/stan/tote/betway

Struggled in the changed ground with top weight

Couple of big priced ones sent for today to finish the year