A few big priced once sent for today

4 big priced selection put up today

Total of 4 selections sent for todays big races

Newmarket 3:00

This looks a good race and I disagree with timeform’s notes on Clear Spring that he has needed his first run the last 2 years, in fact he has run well both times. I think this mark is well within his grasp and if he is ready to go here 33/1 is going to look very big.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Newmarket 3:40

An interesting one here at a huge price is Blue Bayou. She ran a fair bit better in the Moyglare against the top 2 in the betting here than her finishing placing looks and she looks a tough battler which could work well around here. He also has a win around here and 50/1 looks very big considering she may have about as much potential as a fair few of those near the top of the marker.

1 Point ew 50/1 Generally

Goodwood 2:50

Sirius Prospect was never going to stay a mile in the terrible ground last time out. This will be much more up his street and he has been given a chance by the handicapper. He has been running well on the AW this year and if he can translate that here over his best trip he will run a lot better here. 33/1 is easily worth the risk. I also like a small bet on Highland Colori. He wasn’t great on his first run this year but his record suggests he will be a lot better on his second run. He was 3^rd in this last year off a higher mark and 20/1 is also value

1 Point win Sirius Prospect  33/1 Generally

1 Point win Highland Colori 20/1 365/vc/sj/coral

Newmarket 2:30

Mirza is well capable of a big run at times and worth it at a huge price in case everything falls his way today. He has been in poor enough form this year but in these races is all about form on the one big day and with slightly rain softened ground he just might have a chance here at a massive 50/1. Spirit Quartz is another that had a few eye-catching runs last year and back with his old stable here he could have a small shout having run well in this twice before. Well go with small win bets on bot at massive prices.

½ Point win Mirza 50/1 VC/sj/Betfair

½ Point win Spirit Quartz 40/1 365/vc/sj/lads/coral

3:45 Newmarket

I’ll be hoping the favourite puts on a good show here so I’ll go with the stables other runner here at a big looking price in the W/O market. Air Vice Marshal was second at the end of last year when conceding first run to a very good benchmark, and also looked as if the step up in trip would be a big asset. 20/1 without the fav is a few points bigger than I would have expected and worth a small bet.

1 Point win 20/1 W/O AFB Lads/Coral 18/1 365

3:45 Newmarket

I sort of missed this earlier but I’m also going to go with Herald the Dawn for Jim Bolger in the w/o market here. I’m not that convinced about a lot of the challengers here but on form from last year if we can forgive him his last run in France he may well have the 2^nd best form on offer here. The trainer just doesn’t send them over without them being ready and 14/1 in the without the favourite seems a tad generous.

1 Point win 14/1 w/o/ fav 365/hills 12/1 elsewhere

3:50 Punchestown

Aurore D’Estruval has clearly been hard to train but if she can get back to form she would have a decent shout here in what is probably a weak enough grade 1. She has only run 3 times this year and was poor last time out at the festival but the fact that she has been brought there give me hope she may be starting to get back to herself and at a big price it’s worth the risk

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

5:00 Punchestown

Daring Article on the face of it has about as poor form figures as you could wish for but he has a few good performances at this time of the year and also after a break. He is a course winner and on his day can get competitive of this mark. He looks likely to have been targeted at this race and has in the past run well after poor runs a few times.  33/1 looks worth a risk here.

1 Point ew 33/1 Generally

5:35 Punchestown

I’m sure the hand break will be let go on Princely Conn at some stage and he has some fairly eye-catching form in the book albeit a while ago now he’s I worth a risk in case today is the day he gets backed. His novice form was very good and a boat load of zeros afterwards doesn’t really inspire confidence but you’d have to think he will pop up at some stage and what better day that today at a huge price. Well go with the 40/1 and 5 place here.

1 Point ew 40/1 5 places 365/sky/fred/paddy

Punchestown Day 4

5:30

I think we may have a couple of major mistakes here in the betting. Vroom Vroom Vag has basically beaten nothing of note and in my view its total mental that it’s now favourite here. My guess is that My Tent or Yours may struggle after a fairly torrid race at Aintree, and Identity Thief is a hugely overrated horse still. That leaves me with the simplest pick imaginable in Sepmre Medici. He looked an improving horse this year until the Champion Hurdle where he simply couldn’t go the end to end gallop. It won’t be remotely like that tomorrow and is estimate him being a 6/1 shot or maybe 8/1 at most and the current 14/1 is way too big. If MTOY is well after his last 2 races he would win this on the bridle but that just can’t be assumed here.

2 Points win 14/1 365/sky/vc/sj/hills

4:20

Guitar Pete is a horse I’ve been waiting for to win this type of race and on the face of it last time out he was very poor, but that was simply too bad to believe and he may well be suited by the step up in trip here, which is the opposite of what I was thinking before. I still think he has a race like this in him of the current mark and I was shocked to see him in that egg and spoon race last time out. This is a more sensible target for a Grade 1 horse like him of a decent mark and is fairly similar to the winner we picked last year Blood Cotil. 20/1 is huge and if you have a paddy power account they have an extra place which is a big bonus here.

2 Points EW 20/1 boyles/paddy/betfair

Punchestown Day 3

4:50

Cantlow was poor in cheltenham in the Cross Country but ran a reasonable race in the Irish National when a mistake 3 out, put paid to a decent finish from him. He was good enough around here on his first try in these events and given that he should prefer this ground and get up to a stone from the favourite here he looks a bit of value at 25/1 to improve.

1 Point EW 25/1 365/sky/sj/lads

6:40

Ttebbob was an antepost bet of mine at the festival and I think he could well improve here on decent ground. His last 2 poor runs are just too bad to believe and given the decent break he’s had now along with what looked 2 stellar wins early in the season, 28/1 looks value here. It’s worth a gamble at that price that he will be back to form here and the stable is in top form at the moment. He also has the big advantage of missing all the other festivals and comes here a fresh horse.

1 Point EW 28/1 365/sky and 33/1 BetVictor

3:40

Here for the Crack is on a decent mark has been running well on the flat and goes well on decent ground. He is still relatively unexposed in handicap hurdles and after a recent good spin on the flat in Leopardstown after a break he should be ready to go here. 16/1 looks value.

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Punchestown Day 1

4:55

Western Boy is one I’ve had my eye on for a while. I think he will be suited by this fast 2 miles and is certainly on a very good mark judged by his rapid improvement on the flat last year. He was entitled to be in need of the run last time out and my guess is he will be a lot fitter here. The only thing is in those colours tomorrow may not be the day but at 25/1 he is worth the risk.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally