Sandown 4:45

Vroum Vroum Mag has basically beaten nothing of note in her whole career so has to be opposed here on that basis. Over this trip and ground I’m very keen on Vaniteux here at what looks a decent price. He has been as good over fences this year as he was over hurdles before, and ran some good races at the start of last year against some proper benchmark’s like Rock on Ruby etc. I don’t like Ptit Zig and that leaves a price of 15/2 or 7/1 looking very decent value in this race.

2 Point win 15/2 Vaniteux  365/sky/vc

Sandown 2:55

Valseur Lido fairly obviously has a favourites change here but I’m not sure he the odds on shot he is in the betting here. One that might cause a mild surprise is Saphir Du Rheu. I’ll be first to admit he isn’t one of my favourite horses but on looking at his form this year he could well have a very decent chance here. His 5^th in the Hennessey giving lump’s of weight away against proven top class horse looks very good now and his win on good ground at Aintree last year augurs well for him flying around here today. Blinkers look sure to help and the stable is in flying form (mores the pity as I’m all for Willie today). 12/1 is far too big. A lot depends of the form of Menorah here today but he hasn’t done anything at all this year.

2 Points win 12/1 Saphir Du Rheu Generally

Sandown 5:20

I was hoping for 10/1 about Volnay De Thaix here. I was disappointed with his run last time out in the Grade 1 at Aintree but this is a much poorer race and he is in here of a decent mark. He was very well supported last time out as well and if he can string together a decent few jumps he should be right in the firing line here. Nicky has a good record at this meeting and hopefully this one can improve and make his mark look silly.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Sandown 5:55

I’m going to take a change on the class horse in the race here in Wilde Blue Yonder. He hasn’t been seen in a long time but it’s a pointer for me that he is running at this time of the season at all instead of waiting until next year. He is certainly well in on his old form when close up in grade 1s at both Cheltenham and Aintree and I’ll take the chance that he is running here for a good reason. He has also won on his seasonal reappearance before.

1 Point win 22/1 sporting/vc/coral/betfair

Haydock 3:20

Alfonso De Sousa has been trying to give lumps of weight away on the AW of late and running well. He showed plenty of speed as a 2yo and I don’t think this step back in trip will be any harm in a fast run race. He should be competitive of a mark of 101 and has the advantage of a decent few runs this year compared to a lot of these. I think he is worth the risk at 33/1 .

 1 Point EW 33/1 Genreally 40/1 with Sporting

4:10

The young master looks the most likely winner here but I can’t get that excited about a price of 8/1 in what looks a strong race especially when he has never run around here. The first one I like here is Theatre Guide. He has gone up a lot in the weight but in my view can overcome that as he won his last race with any amount in hand and could well be ready to fulfil a lot of his promise from his younger days. He was 3^rd in the Hennessey of 145 a couple of years ago and looks a better horse now. He still has a nice racing weight here and 16/1 looks big.

If Sir Des Champs has recovered from his fall in the national he was reported to be working very well at home before that and he is well in here of that mark with one of the best 3lbs claimers on today he could well bounce back here at a huge looking 25/1.

1 Point win 16/1 Theatre Guide generally

1 Point win 25/1 Sir Des Champs  365/vc/lads/hills

Ayr 3:00

This race has a difficult look about it to find value with the 2 mullins runners looking very strong at the top of the weights. Ivan could well win this head in chest but he did only run last week and that gives us hope here. Clondaw Warrior has had a few chances to win decent handicap hurdles in the past of a lot lower marks than this but failed. The value here seems to be with Ifanbutwhynot, he was 3^rd in this last year of a higher mark and has had a very light season this year since moving stables. He did seem to be on the way back last time out after another break and after last year’s run today will have been the plan. He is a very consistent horse and 25/1 looks EW value here.

1 Point ew 25/1 Generally

Ayr 4:10

Masters Hill has been steadily improving since his 2 very poor runs earlier this season and the form of his last run has worked out well. He should be able to turn the tables on Goodtoknow here and if he can improve his jumping at all he could well be involved here at a huge price.

I like a proven stayer in these races and Millborough is certainly that with a win in the Eider 2 years ago. He improved on this season form last time out and can certainly perform of this mark. 40/1 wth 5 places is very big.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Masters Hill bet365/coral

1 Point EW40/1 5 places Millborough generally

Cheltenham 3:00

Bears Affair has come good this time of the year a few times and probably needed the reduction in mark he has now to get competitive. I could see him improving here today at a huge price. This is  a step back in trip but I don’t think that’s a problem as he has shown he is competitive over this trip of higher marks than this. 33/1 is value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Cheltenham 4:10

Horizontal Speed is one I’ve followed this year without much success. I think the return here of a workable mark and a drop in class could well put him in with a shout. His last run was better but it was over too short a trip and this will be more up his street. He ran a  great race here when 4^th in a similar race in January of a higher mark and generally runs well around here.  He is worth the risk at 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

We ended up with a profit of 13 points in total, in the main from a 30 point profit for yesterdays EW double of the Game Changer 25/1 and Shaneshill 14/1 and also our 66/1 2nd on day 1.

The Heavy ground yesterday killed a few of our chances notably Sgt Reckless and we didn’t do that well in the national again the ground wouldn’t  have helped a couple of our selections.

I’ll do a full site update this week with the stats for the year so far and all the race reports.

Grand National Day

5:15 Grand National

I’m going to start early with my best bet of the race. Home Farm has scraped in to this at the bottom of the handicap and although he has been a bit of a disappointing horse more than once he is on a mark there that if he does improve he could well be right in the firing line. On his first run for his current trainer he had a great win over a good field in Thurles and although he was a bit disappointing after he looks to have this race as a plan for a long time. He has had only run 2 hurdle races this year before coming here and it just ticks too many boxes from a very good trainer both around here and of chasers. He also has good form in the best trial for this race the Irish National with a good 3rd 2 years ago. 100/1 is just great value and although I’ll be taking advantage of bet365’s fantastic offer of free place bets, I can’t really include that in my figures as there the only bookie.

2 Points EW 100/1 5 Places 365/paddy/VC(6places)/lads/stan and others

Grand National

My other longer term selection for this is Buywise at a big price. I think he is a strong stayer and although he will need to brush up his jumping which can happen over these fences anyway he looks value to me at 66/1. He doesn’t need to be very close to the leaders as they turn in to have a huge chance of finishing well up the long straight and he has had a nice light enough season and a decent break. 66/1 is value

1 Point EW 66/1 Boyles/Stan

Aintree 6:10

I had my balls on the line for Sgt Reckless at the festival and although he was a disappointment there he did give me some hope over this kind of trip. The ground is improving so hopefully it won’t get any softer. I nearly fell of the chair when I saw Nina booked for this Amateur and conditionals race and that alone makes the 25/1 value. He is well in of a mark of 136 and hopefully he will give his running here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

Grand National

I had my mind made up that at 14/1 Silviniaco Conti would be great value for this race. Away from Cheltenham this horses record is nothing short of stellar in Grade 1 races and if he stays up here we could all be looking at ourselves after the race thinking of course sure he’s miles well in here. He is a strong traveller great jumper and in my view a strong stayer 14/1 is definatly too big.

2 Points win 14/1 Paddy/Betway/Betfair/boyles

Grand National Bet365 Offer

I’ll go for 1 more and do a small bet on the Bet365 offer that everyone should be able to take. I couldn’t put it up on every horse as I’m not sure of the max stake is enough for everyone but for 1 horse it will be fine. BallyCasey is a decent traveller and jumper. He came back to form last time at Cheltenham and really could be suited by this race. He was brought down last year after seeming to enjoy the fences and if he stays (which is the main question) he could travel do well her eof a very nice weight. 80/1 with 5 places on bet365 with half the bet back straight into the account is brilliant value and is basically 160/1 which is madness

1 Point EW 80/1 Bet365 (costing 1 point)

Aintree 1:45

At fishers Cross has been poor enough his last 2 runs, but on softer ground here (Cheltenham may have been good-firm really) is think he has a decent chance of a nice mark with a 5 lbs claimer on. The EW part is poor value as if he is on form he wins and of not hell be last so I’ll go win only here.

1 Point win 25/1 generally

Aintree EW Double

I fancy The Game Changer to be second to Douvan here as the second favourite really hasn’t beaten anything yet. At 25/1 ¼ odd place he makes a very nice ½ of a ew double with Shaneshill at 14/1. Shaneshill is a very consistent horse and I think Different Gravy beat nothing last time out and isn’t at all proven at this level.

Both to place pays about 18/1 so it looks value.

1 Point EW double

Aintree 4:20

Little john looks a horse with potential not so long ago and I think he is overpriced to get back to form here. He looks a stayer and the step up in trip could bring out the best in him. He was badly hampered at the festival so hopefully didn’t have a hard race there. This is actually a poor enough race and 33/1 looks value

1 Point EW 33/1 VC/Stan/32

Ascot 4:20

This looks a very competitive race but I like a bit of value here at big prices in a couple who need to return to form. Mon Parrain is an in and out performer of the highest order but on his day could easily make his 20/1 price look good. Only his last run at the festival was very poor and if he does pick up again here he can win this of this mark. Si C’etait Vrai was a very decent consistent horse in Ireland but has obviously had a number of problems since he came over here. There wasn’t a lot to like about his 2 runs so far for his new stable but a mark of 128 well within his compass and he is worth a small risk as if he returns to form he could be well ahead of the handicapper. At 33/1 he should return to form at some stage and we want to catch him at maximum value.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally Mon Parris

1 Point win 33/1 Generally Si C’etait Vrai

Doncaster 3:30

Mass Rally can act on this going and usually runs well here. It may be that only 5-6 runners have any chance at all of acting in this race and the 12/1 looks value after all the defections. He was consistent last year and if the break has woken him up a bit he won’t be far away here of this mark

1 Point win 12/1 365/vcbet

Curragh 3:15

Rattling Jewel ran really well last time out in a very similar race and really there shouldn’t be much between him and the 2 at the top of the market who are much shorter prices. He seems like a horse on the upgrade in his last 3 runs and 16/1 looks value

1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Tuesday

Pontefract 3:45

Americans Life’s form and mark over hurdles this year make a flat mark of only 53 look well workable here. He has some very consistent form on heavy ground over hurdles and the trip and going here should really suit. His form reads well in comparison to the favorite here and 12/1 looks decent value in this poor enough race. He is used to running well in stronger hurdles races than this class 5 .

1 Point win 12/1 boyles / paddy power 11/1 elsewhere

Doncaster 2:15

Trying to find one here with a bit of potential at a decent price is difficult as most of the improvers are near the top of the market. One that catches the eye all the same is Carnival King. He has a progressive profile after a nice Newmarket maiden win and then finished out last season with a decent looking run in a good handicap run at Goodwood. He has run well fresh a couple of times and is this yards only representative here. If he can go on the softer ground here he looks nicely enough treated and could well have plenty of improvement in him at a decent looking 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 tote/fred/stan/betway

Doncaster 2:45

Sirius Prospect is one who did me a few favours in the past but didn’t have a great season last year. He didn’t get the greatest run of luck a few times and still caught the eye enough to make him of interest at a huge price here. He loves softer ground and after a few runs on the all-weather to get him fit, he could well outrun his big price here. He is 50/1 with Coral with 5 places and 40/1 with 5 places elsewhere. That looks a bit of value

Also in this race of interest at a huge price is Stipulate. He was a near top class horse when seen here 2 years ago with a very consistent run in Group races for the Cecil’s. He went to Australia and although he ended out disappointing he had won a very decent race of a break in 2014. His record fresh is very good and chances are he should be ready to go here of what looks a very workable mark. 40/1 with 5 places looks value, and this stable is well capable of getting him ready for a big run here.

1 Point EW Sirius Prospect 50/1 5 places Coral 40/1 5 places elsewhere

1 Point EW Stipulate 40/1 5 places 365/sky/lads and others

Doncaster 3:20

Maarek hasn’t had enough opportunity to run on softer ground over the last year or more and he finally gets that chance here. If he is ready to go here on his first run this year he could be very hard to beat in perfect conditions as he is basically a group 1 horse on soft.

1 Point win 6/1 Generally

Kempton 2:30

Intransigent has been running well here this year and was good last time out in the big sprint at Lingfield. This is a weaker race and he is well capable of winning this even with top weight. 12/1 looks about twice the price he should be at I’ll have to go with a 2 point win bet.

2 Points win 12/1 365/vc/lads and others