Festival Day 1
2:50
I picked Indian Castle in this last year at a big price. He ran a great race to be 4th. He has had a similarly disappointing preparation this year but is in here now off a 5lbs lower mark. There is no doubt he will improve here and at 33/1 he is an even bigger price than last year in a very similar race. He looks to have a great chance of being in the first 5 .
2 Points EW 33/1 5 places 365/coral/racebets/winner/betway
NON Runner
I’ve gone for one I suspect may improve in this race as well at a huge price. Fox Appeal up until his last 2 runs had been a very consistent horse in similar big handicaps to this, and I saw enough last time in a bit of a strange looking run to be interested next time out. He has been dropped to a mark below that of his best runs, will stay and like the ground which augurs well for his place chances. 40/1 with 5 places is too big.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places 365/sky/tote/coral and others
Ran well up to a point but didnt have the pace to stick with them at the finish
4:50
Pont Alexander disappointed me in his last 2 runs but even that form has him really competitive in this race. He still has bags of potential and there is a decent chance he can be the class horse in this race. He is a great traveler and looks to me like he will stay this trip. I would have snapped your hand off for 10/1 about him in this race a month or so ago, so wont refuse now. If he improves at all here he could well turn this into a procession.
1 Point win 10/1 Paddy/Wil Hill
Pulled up and Died unfortunatly.
5:30
Amore Alato looks a bit of a forgotten horse here down in class of a decent mark. He has some very decent graded form this year and ran well above expectations last time out again the likes of Silviano Conti at Ascot . He also looked to be winning a grade 2 novice at Ascot until falling at the last. All that makes his mark of 139 and price of 25/1 look great value.
1 Point EW 25/1 Generally
Backed into 12/1 but faded 2 out
4:10
I had in mind to go with whatever Willie sent here as his second string and i’m not going to change my mind now that Gitane du Berlais is available at 40/1. She has been a bit disappointing since her earlier runs but on ratings she isnt far of a lot of the top of the market and 40/1 is really silly given the armory that willie had to throw at this race.
1 Point ew 40/1 BetVictor & Will Hill
Ran a superb race to be 5th a gave us a bit of exitement as she travelled well.
Previous Advised Ante-Post Tips running today
Champion Hurdle 5/2/2016
I’ve been looking at this horse for a while now for this race, and although almost everything else has been falling apart he has been sitting in his box without a run. Obviously Faugheen looks unbeatable in this so we’ll have to look elsewhere for the value and I’ve settled pretty strongly on My Tent or Yours. Ok he’s been off the track for what seems an eternity but he is the one horse with huge potential left to oppose the front 3 in the market. He was of course 2nd to Jezki in 2014 and in that race was clear of both The New One and Hurricane Fly. That form reads very well compared to most of this field. He is due to have a racecourse gallop next week and a possible run in the Kingwell hurdle shortly. My feeling is that NRNB is huge here, as no matter what he does in that race he will not go off anywhere near 25/1 on the day and there may well be only 6-8 runners in the race.
He just ticks too many boxes not to be interesting at that price. He has 2 top class performance’s at the festival and has the better of the likes of The New One who is a lot shorter in the betting . If he regains anything like his old form he would have a small chance of winning but looks a huge favourite to place at least and more critically a massive chance to win the with/out Faugheen race
In particular the 16/1 w/o Faugheen available in totesport & Betfred looks a really huge price if you can just image that race with an unproven horse like Idendity Thief at 4/1.The failure of Peace and Co today just adds to the value. He is about a 6/1 shot for that race for second in my book (if he shows up) and value like that can’t be missed.
This bet can only really go two ways. He either bombs out and more than likely won’t go to the race and you get your money back or We’ll be sitting pretty in a 6-8 Horse race, getting 3 places about a horse with great festival form at 25/1 and on a possible winner of the race for 2nd at a huge looking 16/1. My guess if he shows up he will go off at most 12/1 to win.
1 Point EW 25/1 NRNB Generally
2pt win NRNB w/o Faugheen 16/1 totesport/fred or even 14/1 paddy/vc/boyles/sky.
This result is a bit of a heartbreaker as when i wrote the big analysis above I assumed faugheen would be in the race. If he had stayed in we would have collect as MTOY beat everything else in the field like i hoped he would. Unforutnatly for our bet Annie Power was unbelivable here and won well.
Champion Hurdle Antepost 26/2
We are already in a decent position with My Tent or Yours, but at the moment he looks somewhat unlikely to run and were in a win win because of the nrnb anyway. Looking at the field with the 2 recent withdrawals I keep settling on 2 horses for possible value here. Sempre Medici looks well overlooked here because of the stable’s other runners but he looks likely to turn around the form with Old Guard who is shorter in the betting, given that it was his 3rd run and my sections first. His novice form looks particularly good apart from being poor enough behind Nichols Canyon in punchestown. He looks an improved horse this year and in this poor champion and 33/1 is great value for a possible under the radar improver. The other horse I keep getting stuck on is Peace and Co, I don’t think it would be a huge surprise to see him improve significantly in a fast run race but we’ll leave that bet.
1 Point EW 33/1 NRNB ¼ bet365/888/hills/betfair
Again Well backed into 16/1 but never going well and pulled up
LongshotValue 