Author Archives: longshotvalue

Long Shot Saturday

12 Saturday Mar 2016

Posted by in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Sandown 3:10

I can be difficult to even look at racing this close to the e festival but we’ll have a go here with a  big priced outsider in Prarie Town. He has won over c&d this year and ran well a couple of times since particularly last time out behind Solstice Star at Cheltenham. He looks a dour stayer in these conditions and that augurs well for his ew chances in this field of mainly young horses. He will battle on here while a few have given up the ghost. 40/1 EW is big enough to take a risk for a min bet.
1 Point EW 40/1 Generally.

Sandown 2:00
Paul Nicholls should have a better Cheltenham than his recent form and maybe he can start from here. I think Alcala’s 4th in the super competitive Fixed Brush Hurdle reads well in this type of race. He is down a pound from that and also has the additional help of a good 7lbs claimer. He didn’t look that great winning a poor enough Novice hurdle last time out but should he get back to that Brush hurdle form here he won’t be far away. 12/1 looks a point or 2 too big.
1 Point win 12/1 Various

Long Shot Saturday

05 Saturday Mar 2016

Posted by in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Im going to put one up early as ive missed the 9/1 already.

1:45 Newbury

Olofi is an old favourite of mine and I think he has a very decent chance here in a weaker race on better ground than he has been going on. He is of a good mark and has been supported a few times lately which always increases my interest.

1 Point win 8/1 Stanjames 15/2 betway/betbright/coral

Backed into 9/2 and struggled to stay . Threis hope thought for a win soon enough i think.

Kempton 2:15

Masters Hill ticks a few boxes here. The stable is in great form and I think he may well perform better today on better ground than he has been running on this year. He has been struggling somewhat this year on very heavy ground but most of his good form in on a decent surface and I think the 12/1 generally available is a bit of value in this race. He looked a horse with a fair amount of potential last year and even on his first run this year so hopefully he can regain that momentum.
1 Point win 12/1 generally
Backed into 8/1 and rana very decent race in 3rd.

Festival Package £25

27 Saturday Feb 2016

Posted by in Saturday Selections

≈ 6 Comments

Ive added a option for Non-Members on the site now to buy a Festival Package which will include the 3 big national hunt festivals Cheltenham,Aintree and Punchestown along with other racing between the dates. Its the busiest time of the year for the site and the price will be a tiny amount per selection.

Check out our Previous Cheltenham winners page for a look at our history at the Biggest Festival of all.

Existing Members get all tips and dont need this package.

 

 

Long Shot Saturday

26 Friday Feb 2016

Posted by in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Newcastle 2:50

I’m going with fairly obvious here in the winner from 2 years ago in Wyck Hill. He has been poor since in his few runs but has a great record fresh and will surly have been kept for this race of the exact same mark. I’m not at all convinced about the value of most of the rest of the field and 20/1 with Paddy and 18/1 with bet365 is well worth taking. With his bad record of placing it’ll be a win only bet.
1 Point win 20/1 Paddy Power 18/1 Bet365.

Ran well but didnt stay in the finish after leading most of the way. May strip fitter after that and might have another target.

Newcastle 4:35

I’m going to go with a gut feeling selection here in Majala. He has been pretty bad for a while now but his last win came of the back of poor runs and he is ticking a few boxes here. There is the sudden appearance of a decent claimer and a huge drop in mark to 130. The combination and a weak race make me think he could well improve here and 25/1.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Ran well enough but faded in the finish.

Kempton 3:35

We’ve had a non-runner here in Astracad, and to replace him I’m going to go with the other horse here that interested me a t a price. Fox Appeal has a great record in these big Handicap Chases of around this mark and the fact that there are 15 runners and some of the bookies are still going 4 places makes big appeal for him at a huge price. We only really have to forgive him his last run where he didn’t jump great to see that he is in form this year and could well play a part here. 28/1 and 4 places are too good to ignore.

1 Point EW 28/1 4 Places 365/betbright 25/1 4 places totesport/fred/betfair

This was an isteresting run for the future seemed to be beaten turning for him and came back to finish midfield. It was a strange enough looking run and id be hopefull he has a big run in him shortly at a big price.

Long Shot Saturday

20 Saturday Feb 2016

Posted by in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Ascot 5:35

Silviniaco Conti is a fair bit ahead of everything here on any form bar his last run in the King George where he tried to lead from the start. This is likely his main target as he probably isn’t going to Cheltenham. I’d be surprised if he didn’t get back to form here in a weak enough grade 1. 11/4 generally or 3/1 with Betfair if you can get it looks great value to me here. Dynaste is a long way behind on form, Triolo Dalene could be a danger but he would need to improve considerably. The Step back in trip isn’t really a concern for me as he has won fairly easy 3m chases before and this will be a stiff enough 2m5f today.

2 Points win 11/4 Generally

Great win and contiunes our unbelivable run of winning with rare short price selections. Only Sprinter Scare has lost in 12 selections since the start of 2015 at an average price of about 3/1.

Haydock 2:40

There are a lot of horses in this who have shot up the weights with a recent win and this race could be ripe for a surprise of a low weight. Minella on Line has been a disappointing horse after looking a decent prospect 2 years ago. He was very poor last year but has been getting it together better this year. He ran his best race for a while last time out when a poor jump at the last cost him a closer finish at Newbury. He looks a sold stayer with soft ground form and is getting a huge amount of weight from all the form horses here. This will be a slog of the highest order and he is worth and ew shot at 28/1.

1 Point EW 28/1 Paddy/VC

This horse ran a great race until he tired and couldnt get over the last (he pulled up) when in 3rd place. Still we got him on the right day it was just a torid race.

Haydock 5:15

Horizontal Speed really caught the eye a couple of runs back at Cheltenham when getting tired in the finish after travelling best of all to the last hurdle. If he can recover that form he could stand a decent chance here of a good mark. We will have to forgive him his last poor run but we can do that at a decent price. He is a high class horse on his day and worth a big price dart here.

1 Point win 25/1 Skybet/Betfair Exch 22/1 Elsewhere

Travelled well but ran out of steam, I may keep him in mind at the festival as he could just be a lot better on good ground.

3:25 Fairyhouse

This race has an odd look about it with the 2 highest rated possibly not in form and not really at home of the heavy ground. The Favourite looks far too short given his rating and I’m drawn to Thunder and Roses at a very big price here. He has won around here in this ground is sure to stay and ok we have forgiven him his last run in the Tyestes, but 20/1 looks very big just looking purely at the ratings here. There isn’t a lot between him and the favourite here and if he was to get back into form at all he might just have a shout here.

1 Point win 20/1 Sky/Boyles

Class won out here with both rated horses that i thought were out of form, fought it out after a grat battle. BostonBob looks ahuge price for the ryanair and he is miles better on good ground.

Long Shot Saturday

11 Thursday Feb 2016

Posted by in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post NRNB

I got interested in Chieftains Choice the last time he was about to run a few weeks ago, when I felt he was a strong traveller on soft ground and was worth  a shot in a small handicap hurdle at a big price of 40/1 .Soon after he was backed into 12/1 but was unfortunately withdrawn. When I saw him entered here it sparked my interest as he was pretty obviously a huge price. I had a look at his form again noticed he ran in this last year and had fallen. I said to myself if he was travelling well at the time I’ll be taking an interest here at the huge price. He fell 3 out when in front and travelling strongly (if a bit free).
It doesn’t need a lot of justification to take an interest in a horse at 50/1 and there is enough here in his form on soft/heavy and some of his maiden runs which looked very good. This race can suit a front runner and off his light weight I’m hopeful that he may be difficult enough to pass and stands a decent chance of placing if he is back on form (which looks likely with the decent amount of money for him last time)
1pt EW 50/1 5 places Sky/Paddy/Betfair
Poor run he was the first one in trouble.

Newbury 3:35

Going through this field and ruling out anything near the top of the market as poor value in this type  of race I keep settling on Ivan Grozny as the value here at a huge price. He looked a potential top class 4 yo and was disappointing when push came to shove at the end of that season until he beat a very good horse in Kitten Rock in his last race that year.  He ran the type of race I like to see a horse run when back from a log break lately, in that he travelled well and just got tired coming down to the last. I’d be hopeful that he will be better this time and if he is that 50/1 is going to seem a big price for what could still be a high class horse. I wouldn’t be at all worried about jockey bookings as all Willies horses will be going with a chance.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 Places Paddy Power & Bet365

Came there with what looked a chance but weakened quickly, he probably needs a few pounds back and better ground