I’m having a couple of minimum ante-post bets in the handicaps this year and the first one is one I’ve been waiting for a price on for a while. This will be topped up with a full EW bet when it goes nrnb if this kind of price remains

I’ll be keeping the bets to small ones due to the rubbish racing and very poor ground tomorrow.

Kempton 2:35

Dell Arca has some very decent heavy ground form, not least second in the Betfair Hurdle albeit of a lower mark. He has shown though that this mark is within his compass and the way this race has broken up I think 16/1 is value.

1 Point win 16/1 365/sky/boyes/vc

Backed into 10/1 but poor in the finish

Kempton 3:10

Grandad’s Horse has a couple of decent wins in similar races on soft ground last year of around this mark and although he was poor enough on his only run this year he caught the eye a small bit for me until a mistake 2 out. This race is filled with question mark horses and 12/1 here might be a bit of value.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Backed into 8/1 but never looked likely from 4 out

Kempton 3:45

Jumps Road can be a frustrating horse but he has a couple of wins on heavy ground of around todays mark. The top weight here is also interesting here as he looks on a decent mark but I’ll go with 9/1 about Jumps Road in what looks a weak race. The stable is in cracking form so hopefully that will rub off on him

1 Point win 9/1 vc/hills/betway

I’m afraid another poor selection here, struggled most of the way

Chepstow 1:45

This is a total lottery as to whether any horse can cope with these conditions tomorrow. Still god loves a trier. Some of Return Springs form reads very well for a horse of a mark of 132. He caught the eye on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham and I think he is a few pounds well in here. He has won on soft as well as heavy ground and has a nice low racing weight which will be needed here. 18/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair exchange looks a bit of value and he is unexposed in this type of race.

I think it’s going to be very difficult to knock Firebird Flyer out of the 5 places here at a big looking 28/1 in a couple of places. He looked good behind Tour des Champs around here last time out of the same mark. He is proven on the ground and this slog should suit him better than most.

1 Point win Return Spring 18/1 Paddy/VC/ Betfair

1 Point EW 28/1 5 places Paddy/Coral

Return Spring was miles back after a poor jump on the first circuit, but as i said it was difficult to knock Firebird Flyer out of the places and he was a good fast finishing second here to keep us even for the day.

Well I’ve done up my results for Last year and it was a ridiculous year from the start. From 453 Bets using 641 points we have made a 320 advised profit with is a 50% ROI. This ROI is fairly obviously not really attainable in the long term but just goes to show if your luck is in and a few of the really big price ones win instead of getting placed the profits from these longshots can be huge.

We had 48 winners which is just outrageous. Highlights are Wicklow Brave which was one of my most confident bets ever at 33/1 and obviously Qualify at 100/1 in the oaks.

Once the 300 point mark was near that figure was all i wanted to get for the year as i’m pretty sure that will never happen again. Thanks to a silly point from The Hennessy to So Fine’s 33/1 success we broke it with 20 points to spare.

Since we went to a subscription service we are 30 points in profit for the year, which is hardly earth shattering but makes the service well worth keeping up at a cost of only about £1.10 a point profit. We have also navigated the annual worst part of the year with out loosing our mind.

For the year ahead i’m stupidly confident about a Handicap Horse for Cheltenham and also I’m waiting for NRNB in more than 1 place to go for a very confident bet in one of the championship races.

There are some pretty big staking mistakes again this year, in relation to not putting enough points on my bets of the year, and perhaps staking too much when the ground is very poor.

Anyway after that year ill be under some pressure to try to beat that but realistically an annual profit of 66 points is the real target for each year as i’ve made a promise in the original subscription statement that ill double any 200 points bank over 3 years.

I think the big advantage of this service is, because all the tips are in bigger races its always easy to get on for decent bets and we are also beating BSP now for  a long time at about 15%-20% which is very good for anyone who likes to bet big.

2 Outsiders sent for today’s racing

Sandown 3:00

Going to go for early obvious value here in Reynard. He caught the eye first time out this season and has been dropped too much to ignore for this obvious target. He will go on more or less any ground and to my eye looks one of the more likely winners 16/1 is far too big and he will be going of much shorter than that tomorrow. I’d be happy with the 14/1 either

2 Points EW 16/1 365/hills

Well He got backed into 10/1 but after hitting a few fences down the back he got pulled up. Im not sure he was ever going well.

Sandown 1:15

A fair few in this have been rising the weights and look to have stopped improving. I think Garrahalish looks the value here at 12/1. He has some very good form on softer ground and has been running well enough this year while coming down the weights. Last time out he caught the eye before unseating and I think this trip may be his best. He looks sure to run a good race here

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

HE got backed into 8/1 but never really looked like catching an old cliff horse of mine Bishops Road who won really well, like i thought he might a few times this year in Ireland.

Cheltenham 12:45

This is going to be a slog of the highest order. With that in mind I like the bottom weight here in Hollow Blue Sky. He will have needed his season opener but if he can improve on that he shouldn’t be far away here on this mark with a very good 5lbs claimer on. He will be getting at least a stone from most of this field and has plenty of soft ground form. The stable knows how to win around here and although he has never proven he can stay this far he certainly shapes as a stayer. 18/1 looks very big to me.

1 Point win 18/1 VC/Ladbrokes

Got nowhere really and a disappointment

Cheltenham 1:55

I’ve managed to rule out most of this field for value here and ended up with 1 horse. Thomas Crapper has a great record around here but we are taking a flyer that he can go on this ground. He has also been poor this year but if he can handle these conditions he could well get involved here at a big price of a low weight.  20/1 is a good deal higher that I was expecting.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Made far to many mistakes to stay competitive here, but ive confirmed my bet of cheltenham here with another runner. Hurry up NRNB

Cheltenham 2:30

I’m sure I’ll look like a fool if Rock on Rocky runs like his price suggests he will but I can’t but give him a small chance here of a workable mark. He has plenty of form on soft ground and some of his form reads well with subsequent performances. He’ll be prominent in this and that might just suit in these conditions. He has been poorer this year which has resulted in his current price but if he is going to get it together 66/1 is easily worth the risk as is 50/1.

1 Point EW 66/1 VC/Betbright 50/1 Elsewhere

Well i did look a fool as he was last all the way and never got competitive.

Leopardstown 12:45

Tawseef is stepping up in trip here and judging by his previous runs this should suit him. He is of very workable mark here and has been improving lately on the flat. If he can carry over that improvement to hurdles he might just stand a chance here at a huge price. He’ll be carrying the lowest weight in the field and on this ground that should really count. 40/1 is easily worth a bet.

1 Point EW 40/1 365/sky/boyles

Never really in with a chance.

Lepoardstown 2:55

Cantlow was a big eye catcher for me last time out at Ascot when he just failed to get placed for us at a big price. He is below the mark of his good run in the Irish National on soft ground last year and if he can get back to form he will be well in with a shout here at a huge price. 33/1 is too big especially with 5 places.
1 Point EW 33/1 5 places PaddyPower/Boyles

Never started but was under orders. I got my bet back as a free bet and as far as i know nearly every bookie refunded but well put it down as a 2 point loss.

My Murphy never runs a bad race in these and if he can repeat his second in the Tyestes last year he stands an excellent chance here at a bigger then expected 20/1. He has had a decent run this season on his comeback and should be spot on for this of a workable mark.

1 Point win  20/1 Generally

Never really got in the race and it looks as if he may be trying harder to go one better later this month in the Tyestes

Kempton 2:35
Looking at this race I’m drawn to the biggest of the prices in a horse with very solid course form Ardkilly Witness. He has done nothing in his 2 runs this year but possibly had excuses in both and tried in different headgear here I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we saw an much improved performance of a decent mark. 40/1 is well worth the risk.
1 pt EW 40/1 Various

Hit a fence about 4 out and weakened afterwards

Despite the huge amount of racing tomorrow there is very little good handicaps so not a lot of opportunity for our type of bet

Wetherby  1:45

Splash of Ginge always generates a bit of interest due to his big race wins over hurdles and he does have a couple of eye-catching runs in the Paddy Power and the Hennessy this year. If the Hennessy hasn’t taken too much out of him he is well handicapped here and carrying a very light weight in the conditions. I think he will give a good account of himself here and 9/1 with Paddy Power is Value along with the general 8/1. I rate him a 6/1 shot.

1 Point win 9/1 Paddy Power 8/1 Elsewhere ABANDONED.

Kempton 3:45

Little Boy Boru has a couple of very decent runs last year, on softer ground and of higher marks than this. He has run well twice this season and if he can improve back here of this mark he shouldn’t be far away. 25/1 very decent value

1 Point EW 25/1 VC/Lads/Bright NON-RUNNER