Lingfield 1:40

Not my style really picking a horse in a poor enough race on a Monday, but as mad as it seems Landscape ticks enough boxes for me in this race to be worth a small bet just in case he decided to bother racing here. Anyone who watched his last race will have quickly lost interest after that shambles, but his head clearly wasn’t right and the fact that he was backed before the off always interests me in the next race at a big price. Having bottom weight here on heavy ground is a big advantage and he wouldn’t need to be anywhere near his best for to get competitive here at a big price. We’ll take a bit of a flyer that he may be backed and we’ll know our fate early because if he settles this time we’ll be in with a shout.

1 Point win 20/1 Betfair/365 18/1 elsewhere

Less said the better about that. Hated the stupidly soft ground and never in it at all..

Ascot Silver Cup Ante-Post

I watched the Hennessy and while it was on I was taken with the run of The Giant Bolster . He got tired in the end but had jumped and ran with great purpose up to the 2^nd last. I think he has a great chance in this of this mark. It’s a much lesser race than the Hennessey and he was always a better horse on better ground and after a run. The forecast is for dry weather until Saturday in the area. If he improves at all from that run he will be right in the firing line here and 25/1 is huge. He was relatively poor last year but I think that run looked like the horse of previous years. It looks to me like he will shorten considerably in price so I can’t afford to wait until NRNB which was my original plan. With that in mind ill suggest a 1pt EW bet now and if the price holds after NRNB well have another 1pt EW then. I don’t fancy a lot else in the race at the prices

1 Point ew 25/1 Generally

Well he has backed into 16/1 but ran very poorly, i think i underestimated what the Hennessy may have taken out of him and the ground was a lot softer than I expected. I think we will get a decent day from him at some stage this year, perhaps at Cheltenham.

Ascot 3:35

I’m going to put one up a bit early to take advantage of a silly looking price. Sgt Reckless looks well enough treated in this and I can’t understand him being a 50/1 shot at the moment. His hurdles form is easily good enough of this mark to get involved. We’ll have a small win bet at the huge odd currently available as he surly can’t get any longer in price. If we have to I’d be happy enough with the 33/1 generally available as well.

1 Point win 80 Betfair 50/1 Betway

With the 5 place terms now in for this race I just cat leave the 40/1 EW bet out here. I really like his changes of finishing in the first 5 here and 10/1 to place id far too big. I’m somewhat miffed that I dint wait until the 5 places was available but I didn’t think he would be available at that price.

1 Point EW 5 Place 40/1 365/tote/boylers/vc/stan

Maybe it was the Work night out that made me pick this but he didn’t cope with the soft ground and was never going well..

Cheltenham 1:30

All week I’ve been looking at this race and landing on the same spot. John Spirit has never run a bad race here and has tons of form in these races. He never really got involved last time and was eased after making a mistake at the second last, after making some progress before that. He had probably too much weight that time but 11:05 here on a mark he is well capable of; along with a 16/1 price tag is just too much value to ignore. This looks a bit of a weaker race than the Paddy Power and I have him as an 8/1 shot at best so that signifies a 2 point bet. EW with only 3 places and 16/1 just isn’t value here so we’ll leave that part of the bet.

2 Points win 16/1 VC/PP/Hills 20 on Betfair.

Didn’t run at all well really tiring 2 out. But i’m beginning to think we might get a big day out of him in March if he drops a few more pounds.

Cheltenham 3:00

Fairly easy value bet here in Hargam. He looks sure to be suited by this tougher race and there wasn’t  much between him and the favourite in the triumph. 10/1 is just silliness compared to odds on for Peace and Co having his first run this season. It may be the only time he can beat Peace & Co but if he is to it’ll be here.

1 Point win 10/1 Ladbrokes 9/1 Elsewhere

Ran really well to be 3rd only 1 length away.

Doncaster 3:15

Pearl Castle catches the eye here as an improving flat horse who certainly has scope over hurdles. He was a very good 6^th in the Galway Hurdle last year of around this mark on a course that probably wouldn’t have suited him. He has won here twice over the Course & Distance and of this mark could well have a great shot here. 10/1 looks a small bit of value.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally Non Runner

Cheltenham 1:15

Going with a gut feeling here in Workbenck who was very decent when 2^nd here on his second last run and course form around here is everything.  He was poor next time out at Ascot but at 33/1 for a table in form he is easily value at that price and I’ll go with a min bet in case my gut that he will improve here.

½ Point win 33/1 888/32red/Betfair

Ran a great race to be 3rd but was a victim of our limited EW betting. Still a nice bit f value found.

Some consistent crossbar hitting came to an end in great fashion when So Fine grinded out at great win at 33/1 and a BSP of 55..

I actually had a bet myself in the bookies and had the fun of being the only one cheering him in ..

Cheltenham 2:55

So Fine was a bit of a disappointment for us last time out here but he did show up well until getting tired, in fairness after what was his first run for a long time. He was backed significantly last time though and with that run under his belt I think he will improve here of what is a very workable mark. He has form over this course and distance of higher marks and with the softer ground the lighter weights here will have a significant advantage. 33/1 is much bigger than I expected. EW with only 3 places here on the face of it seems worthless, but I expect him to be backed here and 7/1 to place might look nice before the off.

1 Point ew 33/1 BetVictor 28/1 Sky/ Betway 

So Fine certainly lived up to his name with a  great win here battling up the hill in superb fashion to win at 33/1 and a BSP of 55.

Another huge crossbar hit here with a great run .  Still 1pt Ew for a big profit ..

I just watched this race there now and it must have been some buzz to watch it live. He lost his place about 4 out but rallied to finish 2nd, having looked likely to catch the winner approaching the Elbow.

Were on a run of very big price placed horses lately. 2nd and 3rd in the Troytown with 2 20/1 shots, 2nd and 3rd in the Hennessy with 2 33/1 shots and 2nd here with a 66/1 shot. Luckily i didn’t completely give up on the EW bets or we’d be hanging from the rafters after that run.

Fairyhouse 3:10

Swordfish has a form line full of p’s, but he does have a good coarse record here on soft ground. He was poor enough last time but usually takes at least 1 run to get fit. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was a lot better tomorrow. 12/1 looks worth a bet and if he is fancied he’ll certainly come down in price.

1Point win 12/1 vc/stan/lads/betfair

Backed into Joint Fav, and stopped very quick having looked to be travelling well.

Newbury 1:50

Royal guardsman did us a favor last year around here and he looks on a decent mark here to have a nice chance at a decent looking 16/1. Ma Fieulle could be difficult to beat but at 16/1 the selection looks the value bet given he is proven in the conditions.

1 point win 16/1 365/888/32/betfair

Royal guardsman is a very good horse for us, i think I’ve only select him twice and he’s won both times. He stuck his neck out here in outstanding fashion to make up for a few near misses lately.

These bets were sent on Tuesday looking for Value of Saturdays Race

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There is a bet or two that id like to make for this race before the prices changes and as both horses are almost certainly going to take part , the value is there now.

Theater Guide was a superb 3rd in this 2 years ago and has largely been out of form since (somewhat like a lot of the stables horses). He has very little runs over this trip and is down to a very workable mark here that 5 lbs less than his run here . The stable is in fine for this year and 33/1 looks huge, i make him 20/1 at best. Also First Lieutenant is just too well treated here and his first run of the season was an eye-catcher over too short a trip against higher rated horses, again 33/1 is very big and he is also in the 20/1 Range. The place part of these is definite value despite the fact the 5 places will be available later but at a much reduced price in my opinion.

1 Point EW 33/1 Theater Guide  365/lads/hills/betfair

1 Point EW 33/1 First Lieutenant boyles/vc/hills/betfair

Both bets look good at the moment with them both coming into the 20/1 as predicted.

Hennessy is usually the start of the best period for my Selections every year and this was about the best non winning result I’ve ever had. Getting both horses to place here at 33/1 was a great result and taking the early 33/1 about both meant a lot of extra profit here. The only negative is really that they were very confident selections and were only 1pt EW because of the ante-post market.