Ripon Great St Wilfred 3:30

We have waited a long time to get a suitable race for Hawkeyethenoo since his very good run in the Victoria Cup earlier this year when he was 3^rd and we were on at 40/1 EW. He has run twice over 5 furlongs since which is too short and he didn’t stay the 7 furlongs on soft in the International. Although there is a chance that the moment has passed as he had looked in rude health back then, I still feel he is ready to run a big race. He has a very good 7lbs claimer on tomorrow which will have him carrying the lowest weight of all runners here. Any small amount of rain won’t hurt his chances at all and the current 25/1 with some bookies is well worth a bet.

The other one I’m going for in this is Tatlisu. He looked a sprinter on the up at the end of last year but after his win at the start of this year he has been very up and down. He has been running to his mark all the same and with proven ability on soft ground and around here being 3^rd in this last year this could well be his ideal race. He is drawn 7 so is the other side from my main selection . 16/1 is bigger than I expected

1 Point win 16/1 Tatlisu 888/Stan

2 Points EW 25/1 Hawkeyethenoo  Boyles/888/32

Ripon 3:00

I’m going to go with one from each side here. Fast Shot ticks a fair few boxes for this race. He is down to a good mark, has course form and is probably better with cut in the ground. His best runs this year have been here and if he can improve in this race he will get competitive of this mark. Rex Imperator has been poor this year but his day is sure to come, and I think the soft ground 6 furlongs could be just right for him. He won 2 starts ago but never got into his next race, and up until then had looked to be improving slowly.

Now that Rex is a non-runner I’m going to go with another horse on that side with decent soft ground form. Gramercy has always been better with cut in the ground and hasn’t had much of a chance this year to show that. This race has cut up a fair bit and its far more likely that the gaps required will come now that with a full field. He will be staying on here and at 25/1 he looks value.

1 Point win 22/1 Coral Fast Shot

1 Point win 16/1 Sky Rex Imperator NON-Runner

1 Point win 25/1 Gramercy Sporting/VC/Hills

Doncaster 4:25

There is a couple of big outsiders that I have an inkling are overpriced here. Field of Dream is a bit dangerous in that he probably has other targets but I thought he looked a lot better last time than his other runs this year and of this mark he’s worth a small bet at a huge price. The other one is Majestic Myles, he has a very good record fresh and is down to a workable mark. He does have a fairly inexperienced 7lbs claimer on today but she does have a decent strike rate and if he was to be ready today hell have a very good shot at a huge price.

1 Point win 40/1 Field of Dream Sky 888

1 Point win Majestic Myles 33/1 Generally

Newmarket 2:50

Mubtaghaa looked to be travelling really well in the Stewards Sprint at Goodwood and just couldn’t get any kind of run until too late. If he can get a run here in a weaker race he will be ring there with a chance. 12/1 is a bigger price than I expected

1 Point win 12/1 Various

3:45 Newbury

I had a look at this race last night and felt the 3yo’s were overpriced. Of the 2 Markaz looks to be the most suited to the conditions and he looks the stronger stayer of the 2. He also looks to be steadily improving and although the fav looks the most likely winner he doesn’t look particularly value. Markaz looks more of a 10/1 shot than his current 14/1

1 Point win 14/1 Markaz

This Saturday has always been near the worst of the year but there is still some passable racing on and I’ve a few cliff horses running today that I’ll be following just in case. The less said about last nights near last place double the better and lesson learned about picking in poor races.

12:55 Ascot

This is easily the best race on this poor card today and I’m going to shamelessly go for a cliff horse of mine this year in Hawkeyethenoo. He has a fair few negatives today in that its possibly over too short a trip and good ground over 5f won’t be in his favour. He just looks ready to win to me and when I looked yesterday I said to myself if he goes to 20/1 ill have stab just in case. His last run was over 7 here and it was probably a step too far on soft ground. If this race was over 6 around here id be losing my mind with a bet but instead ill have a 1 point win bet to avoid and fist through tv moments just in case.

1 Point win 20/1 VC/Stan/Coral

I also like Boom the Groom in this race, he ran an eye-catching race at Epson and again last time out. He will need things to go his way but the smaller field here will help him slice through the pack and at 12/1 he is value.

1 Point win 12/1 Coral

3:05 Newmarket

Tamayuz Star looks to have gone off the boil in his last 2 runs but he has always been a better horse over 7 furlongs and I wonder is this step up in trip a sign that he may be about to get competitive. He has a good 3lbs claimer on and is off a very low mark given his best form. This doesn’t look the best Saturday sprint and 33/1 looks value

1 Point win 33/1 Generally

Haydock 4:35

I’m probably not the only one that has been wondering when will Secret Witness win off his low mark, but I’ve avoided him for the most part as he doesn’t look too bothered. However he has done a job for me before when raced very soon after another run and with that in mind ill have a small bet now. He has a very good record racing as little as 1 day after a run and at 22/1 today might the value day for him to capitalise.

1 Point win 22/1 Skybet

Newmarket 2:30

I noticed a little bit of hope for improvement in What About Carlo’s last race. He took a while to get going but eventually consented near the finish. I get the feeling there won’t be too long a wait until hew puts it in and can get competitive of this mark. This looks a pretty weak race and the 14/1 on offer with coral is a decent bet

1 Point win 14/1 Coral

Tipperary 7:45

Having 5 minutes to have a quick look at cards for tonight I look the looks of Royal County Boy of a feather weight in this race. He has decent enough form for this level over 7 furlongs, and most of his runs that have seen him plummet down the weights have been over different trips. He has never raced on soft ground but if he can handle that with such a low weight he may be able to get placed here a decent percentage of the time. 33/1 looks a nice bit of value.

1 Point EW 33/1  boyles/vc/sporting

Newmarket 8:25

Doctor Parks has always been competitive of this mark and if we can ignore his last poor run where he had too much to do, his second last run gives me a decent bit of hope. Off 3lbs higher he got the door shut a few times having travelled well and with the addition of a 5lbs claimer on today he may well get into this at a huge price. 33/1 looks value

1 Point EW 33/1 tote/vc/fred/888

Ripon 7:35

Noble Storm has been brewing a decent run in the last while, particularly his last 2 runs at York which were far better races than this one. There is a lot of this field that are on too high a mark in my opinion and with that narrowing the field down 14/1 is starting to look value.  This is a drop in class and in the past he has capitalized on that in smaller fields like this one. In these races it’s all about getting on when the price is right and they are about to hit form. I’m hopeful that Noble Storm’s day may well be tomorrow

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Nice winner for a bank holiday Monday at 14/1

Go Far finishing 3rd on Saturday at 40/1 gave us a profitable Saturday.

3:45 Ripon

Mass Rally looked to be coming to the boil nicely in his first 2 runs this year when closing fast in better races than this one. He is in here on a good mark an although he has to give weight away all round he doesn’t look to have a lot to fear here in this field, if he can hit form. 10/1 seems to be a decent mark up on his chances and easily worth a bet. He is a big price after a poor run in Scotland but hopefully that was just a sprinting aberration which can happen regularly in these races.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Naas 3:25

I’m not normally one for looking at these Irish sprint handicaps let alone pick one out but I was at Galway last week and had a few quid on Battleroftheboyne at a big price. He ran well but just didn’t stay up the hill over 7 furlongs. He is back here over 5 and if he is still in good form 14/1 is too big in this much weaker race. He is well capable of this mark and a lot of luck in running is required in these but he stands a better chance than that price of winning.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Muthmir Was backed into a more sensible price and duly obliged for us yesterday, making 3 winners in the week which isn’t bad at all.

Stewards Cup Goodwood

An early one for this is Ninjago. He seems an obvious pick when he was 5^th and 2^nd in this the last 2 years and also was a good 3^rd this year in his other run around here. He obviously likes it here and as a 5yo should have some improvement in him this year. Im assuming that this is the aim all year and at 2lbs lower than last years 2^nd, he is clearly capable of getting competitive. 25/1 is a lot bigger than I was expecting and cant last so id be getting on now.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Betfred (now 25/1 with Totesport) (22/1 365 5 places)

I’m also going to go with Jack Dexter here. It was all low drawn horses in the consolation race and I think he has been performing well this year in top races. He is very likely to strike soon enough and 33/1 looks great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Bet365/pp and others

Goodwood 2:00 

Go far looks to be on a good mark , and gradually improving to a performance.  He looks a nice bit of value and if he continues his progression 40/1 is going to look very big . In addition. I can let Hoof it go without a bet at 50/1 just in case he has been prepared with today in mind .

1 point Ew Go Far 40/1 5 places 365 and others

1 point Ew Hoof it 50/1 5 places generally

Galway 3:15

I waited a long time to see Western Boy actually try in the Galway Hurdle but unfortunately he both didn’t get in and  ruined his price with a good flat win a couple of weeks ago. He ran a great race in possibly the best novice hurdle in the last 20 years, behind Vautour when despite going far too wide he still finished well enough. I’ve been expecting him to pop up at some stage and hopefully today is the day. He is only 12/1 and unfortunately is around the complete lottery of Galway but still I’ll have to have a bet.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Goodwood 3:45

I think this market would look a lot different if Muthmir hadn’t run poorly enough in the July Cup. He just couldn’t get involved in the finish there but that can happen in sprints and one re-look at the Kings Stand confirms to me he is a Group 1 Sprinter. He travelled supremely there and but for a bump over a furlong out and perhaps going down the wrong side at the finish he could have won that race. I actually have him as a solid favourite here and the others have it to prove they are up to that level. Out Do looks to be flying and he could be the main danger. I think Muthmir should be around 5/2 so double the price has to be taken.

2 Points win 5/1 Various       

Goodwood 3:10

I’m going for the totally obvious here in Magic City. He has an excellent course record, has had a light enough season and had more than likely been prepared for this. I’m not getting over excited as he is on a tough mark but with the very good 5lbs claimer on tomorrow he should be able to get competitive. 20/1 is simply too big and hovering up the remaining scraps of that will be value

1 Point win 20/1 totesport/fred/betfair

Galway Hurdle 4:45

Diakali looks to be a good bit clear of anything here on form and his mark is lenient by at least 5-6 pounds if not more. He is near the very top of Hurdlers over the last year or 2 and more than likely won’t be far away here. The one problem is Galway is a silly track to be generous and the amount of luck required is far too much to be comfortable backing a 5/1 shot in a very solid 20 runner handicap. I’m very surprised that Wicklow Brave is as big as 16/1 here. He won the best handicap hurdle of the year in an absolute canter beating a horse than afterwards went on to win another big handicap at Punchestown, along with having Quick Jack back in third. He has been raised 15lbs for that run but on that form it would take more than that to make him uncompetitive. His trainer believes he is better on good ground and although we risk him not bothering to get involved at the start there is plenty of juice on the price to take that risk. Pricewise has unfortunately scuppered my other possible value bet in Max Dynamite who was a great price at 25/1 but I’m not as interested at the current 16/1.

2 Points win Wicklow Brave 16/1 Generally

Thankfully we had a decent day with the 2 biggest bets coming off. Highland Reel lived up to the huge mistake his price seemed, and Alderwood placed in the Plate at a very decent price.